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tuning via maximizing likelihood
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Daniel Shawul



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 3231
Location: Ethiopia

PostPost subject: Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood    Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:12 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote

jdart wrote:
Quote:
The value of the loss is not zero also for wins and draws that are predicted correctly too so I don't see why that is a problem?


The value for correctly predicted losses and wins is very close to zero. Not exactly because the logistic function will only asymptotically approach 1 as the score increases, or 0 as the score decreases.

--Jon

I don't think so. Note that the result could be a win or a loss even with a drawish evaluation (score) of 0. The log-likelihood in this case is log(0.5)=-0.3 whether the result is a win/loss or draw. A reasonable score of +200 for a win gives you log-likelihood of -0.12, so we can not assume only positions with score >1000 are correctly predicted as a win.
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Subject Author Date/Time
tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:54 pm
      Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:38 pm
            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:45 pm
                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:51 pm
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:00 pm
                              Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:20 pm
                                    Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:15 pm
                                          Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:18 pm
                                    Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:52 am
                                          Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:13 am
                                                Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:20 am
                                                      Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:07 am
                                                            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:25 am
                                                                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:45 am
                                          Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:26 pm
                                                Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:33 pm
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:22 am
                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Jon Dart Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:43 pm
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:59 am
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:20 am
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:56 pm
                              Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Jon Dart Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:55 pm
                                    Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:12 pm
            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:15 am
                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:45 pm
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:53 pm
                              Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:40 pm
                                    Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Álvaro Begué Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:44 pm
                                          Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:36 pm
                                                Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:57 am
                                                      Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:19 am
                                                            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:42 am
                                                                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:36 am
                                                                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:44 pm
                                                                              Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:37 pm
                                                                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:35 pm
                                                            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:15 pm
                                                            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:36 pm
                                                      Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:22 pm
                                                      Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:41 pm
                                                            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Jon Dart Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:34 pm
      Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Jon Dart Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:45 pm
            Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:47 am
                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Jon Dart Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:46 am
                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:14 am
                  Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:23 pm
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:16 pm
                              Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:36 pm
                                    Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:26 am
                                          Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:07 pm
                                                Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Michel Van den Bergh Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:43 am
                              Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Evert Glebbeek Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:32 pm
                        Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:21 pm
                              maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:34 pm
                                    Re: maximum a posteriori Michel Van den Bergh Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:41 am
                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:04 pm
                                                Re: maximum a posteriori Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:04 am
                                                      Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:40 pm
                                                            Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:46 pm
                                                                  Re: maximum a posteriori Michel Van den Bergh Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:44 am
                                                                        Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:11 pm
                                                                              Re: maximum a posteriori Evert Glebbeek Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:56 pm
                                                                              Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:01 pm
                                                                              Re: maximum a posteriori Michel Van den Bergh Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:19 am
                                                                                    Re: maximum a posteriori Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:25 am
                                                                                    Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:07 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:01 pm
                                                                              Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:43 pm
                                                                                    Re: maximum a posteriori Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:42 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:18 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:37 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:54 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:30 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:15 pm
                                                                                    Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:11 pm
                                                                                    Re: maximum a posteriori Evert Glebbeek Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:33 pm
                                                                                          Re: maximum a posteriori Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:14 pm
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