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Daniel Shawul

Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 3201
Location: Ethiopia

Post subject: Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood    Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:12 pm

jdart wrote:
 Quote: The value of the loss is not zero also for wins and draws that are predicted correctly too so I don't see why that is a problem?

The value for correctly predicted losses and wins is very close to zero. Not exactly because the logistic function will only asymptotically approach 1 as the score increases, or 0 as the score decreases.

--Jon

I don't think so. Note that the result could be a win or a loss even with a drawish evaluation (score) of 0. The log-likelihood in this case is log(0.5)=-0.3 whether the result is a win/loss or draw. A reasonable score of +200 for a win gives you log-likelihood of -0.12, so we can not assume only positions with score >1000 are correctly predicted as a win.
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Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:54 pm
Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:38 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:45 pm
Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:51 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:00 pm
Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:20 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:15 pm
Álvaro Begué Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:18 pm
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:52 am
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:13 am
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:20 am
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:07 am
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:25 am
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:45 am
Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:26 pm
Álvaro Begué Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:33 pm
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:22 am
Jon Dart Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:43 pm
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:59 am
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:20 am
Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:56 pm
Jon Dart Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:55 pm
Re: tuning via maximizing likelihood Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:12 pm
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:15 am
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:45 pm
Álvaro Begué Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:53 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:40 pm
Álvaro Begué Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:44 pm
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:36 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:57 am
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:19 am
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:42 am
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:36 am
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:44 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:37 pm
Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:35 pm
Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:15 pm
Rein Halbersma Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:36 pm
Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:22 pm
Rein Halbersma Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:41 pm
Jon Dart Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:34 pm
Jon Dart Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:45 pm
Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:47 am
Jon Dart Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:46 am
Rein Halbersma Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:14 am
Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:23 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:16 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:36 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:26 am
Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:07 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:43 am
Evert Glebbeek Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:32 pm
Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:21 pm
Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:34 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:41 am
Daniel Shawul Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:04 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:04 am
Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:40 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:46 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:44 am
Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:11 pm
Evert Glebbeek Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:56 pm
Daniel Shawul Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:01 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:19 am
Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:25 am
Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:07 pm
Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:01 pm
Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:43 pm
Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:42 pm
Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:18 pm
Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:37 pm
Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:54 pm
Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:06 pm
Daniel Shawul Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:30 pm
Álvaro Begué Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:15 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:11 pm
Evert Glebbeek Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:33 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:14 pm

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