Topalov vs Anand Game 10

[AdminX]

[d]8/2nk3p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/3K4/7P/P2BBb2/8 w - - 0 41

[yanquis1972]

i am starting to think this really is technically won for white, but topalov isn't kramnik...

I do not think that it is winning and I think that it is draw if anand find the right moves.

assuming no obvious significant blunders from these two, it would be interesting to have some computer shootouts from this position. im not sure how to interpret or use monte carlo analysis but at d11 it seemed to think draw was easily the most likely result, something like 54% for white.

[AdminX]

[d]4n3/3k3p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/4K3/6bP/P2BB3/8 w - - 0 43

[AdminX]

Topalov,V - Anand,V, World Chess Championship
[d]4n3/3k3p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/4K3/6bP/P2BB3/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Naum 4.2:

43.Bg4+ Ke7 44.Kf3 Nd6 45.Bb4 Bh2 46.h4 Be5 47.Be6 Ke8 48.Be1 Ke7 49.Bg4 Nc4 50.Bc8 a5 51.Ba6 Kd6 52.Bxb5 Kxd5 53.Bxc4+ Kxc4 54.Bxa5 Kc5 55.Bd2
+/- (0.99) Depth: 6/14 00:00:00 3kN
+/= (0.57) Depth: 25/37 00:01:55 145mN, tb=120

[ovidio123]

I believe Topalov did not want to risk anything by going after the king's side pawns.

[AdminX]

[d]4n3/4k2p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/4K1B1/6bP/P2B4/8 w - - 0 44

[Dayffd]

Topalov,V - Anand,V, World Chess Championship
[d]4n3/3k3p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/4K3/6bP/P2BB3/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Naum 4.2:

43.Bg4+ Ke7 44.Kf3 Nd6 45.Bb4 Bh2 46.h4 Be5 47.Be6 Ke8 48.Be1 Ke7 49.Bg4 Nc4 50.Bc8 a5 51.Ba6 Kd6 52.Bxb5 Kxd5 53.Bxc4+ Kxc4 54.Bxa5 Kc5 55.Bd2
+/- (0.99) Depth: 6/14 00:00:00 3kN
+/= (0.57) Depth: 25/37 00:01:55 145mN, tb=120

After 43.Bg4+ Ke7 44.Bb4+ then what?

[AdminX]

Topalov,V - Anand,V, World Chess Championship
[d]4n3/4k2p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/4K1B1/6bP/P2B4/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Deep Fritz 12:

44.Kf3 Nd6 45.Bb4 Be5 46.Be6 Kf8 47.Bd7 Ke7 48.Bc6 Kd8 49.a4 Kc7 50.Ba5+ Kb8 51.Be1 Kc7
+/= (0.45) Depth: 11/18 00:00:00 34kN
+/= (0.47) Depth: 27/46 00:02:10 680mN, tb=3773

[AdminX]

[d]8/4k2p/p2nB1p1/1p1P2P1/4K3/6bP/P2B4/8 w - - 0 45

[Dayffd]

Topalov,V - Anand,V, World Chess Championship
[d]4n3/3k3p/p5p1/1p1P2P1/4K3/6bP/P2BB3/8 w - - 0 1

Analysis by Naum 4.2:

43.Bg4+ Ke7 44.Kf3 Nd6 45.Bb4 Bh2 46.h4 Be5 47.Be6 Ke8 48.Be1 Ke7 49.Bg4 Nc4 50.Bc8 a5 51.Ba6 Kd6 52.Bxb5 Kxd5 53.Bxc4+ Kxc4 54.Bxa5 Kc5 55.Bd2
+/- (0.99) Depth: 6/14 00:00:00 3kN
+/= (0.57) Depth: 25/37 00:01:55 145mN, tb=120

After 43.Bg4+ Ke7 44.Bb4+ then what?

I think Nd6 and the penetration of the white king via c5 can be prevented by Bf2.

After 44...Nd6 45.Be6 and cannot white threaten play against both sets of wing pawns?