Discussion of chess software programming and technical issues.
Moderators: hgm , Rebel , chrisw
Sven
Posts: 4052 Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 9:57 pm
Location: Berlin, Germany
Full name: Sven Schüle
Post
by Sven » Mon Jul 11, 2011 9:02 pm
JuLieN wrote: Daniel Shawul wrote: Yes so far Uri or HG are looking good. Me and Julien (if I may) are fillers
By the way you and also Juline seem to take into consideration the odd-even effect. Isn't that for alpha-beta only ? perft is min-max
If you look at the graph, you'll see that there is an odd-even effect. Now where does it come from? From the fact that black is a ply late compared with white? Is this another evidence that white has an advantage by starting the game? Will this effect eventually disappear after a while?
And by the way, would the interpolation curve allow us to determine the medium duration of a game, or would it change its general shape with time instead of being symetrical?
One possible explanation for the odd-even effect might be that there are many move sequences from the starting position that keep white and black pieces totally decoupled from each other so that black frequently has about the same number of move choices as white in the previous ply. But then, for the next ply, white will now have increased its choices, presumably after having "developed" one more piece. At some point this effect will smoothly disappear (this might be the real border to "middlegame"
), when the increase of average piece mobility has becomes less likely than the interference between white and black moves. Based on my interpolation I would currently expect this at ply 22/23 where the BF would settle at about 33. But I know this is "Hocus Pocus", so in fact I won't bet on it, nor on any attempt to predict an "average game duration".
Sven
Sven
Posts: 4052 Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 9:57 pm
Location: Berlin, Germany
Full name: Sven Schüle
Post
by Sven » Mon Jul 11, 2011 9:04 pm
Daniel Shawul wrote: Btw your plot is for an even ply (12), may be it will be different for ply(11)
Julien's plot is for all plies from 1 up to 12, based on the known perft(1) .. perft(12) values.
Sven
Daniel Shawul
Posts: 4185 Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:34 am
Location: Ethiopia
Post
by Daniel Shawul » Mon Jul 11, 2011 9:09 pm
Hmm..I am too confused today
hgm
Posts: 27808 Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 10:06 am
Location: Amsterdam
Full name: H G Muller
Post
by hgm » Mon Jul 11, 2011 9:54 pm
From the opening position, your own moves on the average develop pieces, giving them more moves. Pawn moves unblock them, moving from behind the Pawn wall opens other directions to them, etc. Opponent moves have no such effects on your moility. His Pawns nd pieces are normally not blocking your pieces, and they are in fact more likely to block them after they move. And worse of all, they might capture your developed pieces, so your mobility takes another hit.
So your mobility increases a lot when you move, and decreases a little bit when the opponent moves. That means the number of moves you have depends on the number of moves you did so far. Which is the same for the white and black move with the same move number. But the black move suffers a little bit from the fact that white has already done one move more by the time it is his turn.
Uri Blass
Posts: 10300 Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel
Post
by Uri Blass » Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:01 pm
Daniel Shawul wrote: Hopefull again after seeing Uri's result 1.997*10^18 is more closer to my value 2*10^18 than to yours. Sven's estimate however is close to yours.
All that I have to do now is bet smart with the standard deviation. Are you sure you like your sd ?
I think the following:
1)H.G.Muller's method is probably better than my method
2)More games with my method are needed for a better estimate
to get a smaller error and the program that Sven used to generate the estimate use full makemove and is clearly not optimized for generating estimates.
Daniel Shawul
Posts: 4185 Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:34 am
Location: Ethiopia
Post
by Daniel Shawul » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:09 pm
My "improved" estimate is now
2.04*10^18 from calculating each move's BF. Doing that for the total nodes searched gave a much lower 1.94*10^14 so I prefer the new estimate. Additional credit for calculating each move's nodes ?:)
Code: Select all
perft(11) perft(12)
m1 m2 count
a2a3 a7a5 2490170591441 a7a5 72665331130084 13.39460522 14.29257911 15.190553 2293277425253770
a2a3 a7a6 1860954056181 a7a6 52240581495625 13.04459241 13.90488283 14.76517325 1585262227934740
a2a3 b7b5 2441922142492 b7b5 70832193411277 13.37080138 14.26217926 15.15355715 2221721843568800
a2a3 b7b6 2402995112291 b7b6 68828719890548 13.35128264 14.22811853 15.10495441 2130847871799050
a2a3 b8a6 2132744059006 b8a6 61140891499069 13.20725651 14.08837752 14.96949852 1895371177652800
a2a3 b8c6 2697902252015 b8c6 79580647397864 13.49252688 14.40126435 15.31000182 2539090314080590
a2a3 c7c5 2958457569388 c7c5 88953429066195 13.60608605 14.53550834 15.46493062 2894167674976420
a2a3 c7c6 2648687762208 c7c6 79328915867793 13.46996394 14.39746263 15.32496132 2571532579782220
a2a3 d7d5 5577971560157 d7d5 182556087468747 14.41353717 15.43297644 16.45241572 6471214125234350
a2a3 d7d6 4363682786084 d7d6 130494144657416 14.09540507 15.00718555 15.91896602 4215927410168320
a2a3 e7e5 6582848832572 e7e5 218781166802947 14.6322244 15.66754057 16.70285673 7875530687676390
a2a3 e7e6 6513293932180 e7e6 214642037503057 14.61810142 15.64262252 16.66714362 7659409849825030
a2a3 f7f5 2091957988668 f7f5 59111707329682 13.18409334 14.0488074 14.91352146 1805271992077450
a2a3 f7f6 1681297435361 f7f6 44562128777067 12.92475239 13.72188665 14.51902091 1274046554651800
a2a3 g7g5 2267166109628 g7g5 63838870856898 13.28084653 14.13916512 14.99748372 1941955118342300
a2a3 g7g6 2468961409498 g7g6 71531672456757 13.38419358 14.27386325 15.16353291 2240810740333470
a2a3 g8f6 2673865279427 g8f6 77737501513793 13.48155403 14.37316953 15.26478504 2443312445347090
a2a3 g8h6 2138996265326 g8h6 61472317703694 13.2107716 14.09472583 14.97868005 1910539740419350
a2a3 h7h5 2552311861490 h7h5 75046500179133 13.42465295 14.33103435 15.23741575 2386970906245610
a2a3 h7h6 1857105882411 h7h6 52051331873986 13.0421379 13.90067813 14.75921835 1576970798971880
a2a4 a7a5 2704594653270 a7a5 77778262385061 13.49556613 14.37379742 15.25202871 2416901673647010
a2a4 a7a6 2594760709819 a7a6 72765171767241 13.44479861 14.29421456 15.1436305 2202876035691940
a2a4 b7b5 4274118995132 b7b5 124685845205799 14.06885594 14.95035239 15.83184884 3925647066636260
a2a4 b7b6 3460506418911 b7b6 99506957116457 13.80135691 14.67194827 15.54253963 3088771528766790
a2a4 b8a6 3035472405970 b8a6 87518398685605 13.63791077 14.51582132 15.39373186 2725655269534350
a2a4 b8c6 3753020724759 b8c6 110935308713286 13.90354485 14.8054797 15.70741454 3542918578329300
a2a4 c7c5 4154387427658 c7c5 124923810649497 14.03256296 14.95272807 15.87289318 4060029749485700
a2a4 c7c6 3695958968906 c7c6 110486927467621 13.88419323 14.80048367 15.71677411 3570461428126670
a2a4 d7d5 7987342923715 d7d5 261933284151767 14.89174759 15.90434876 16.91694993 9293661113906230
a2a4 d7d6 6267885152140 d7d6 187847228615832 14.56715157 15.46976558 16.37237959 6073701804812430
a2a4 e7e5 9091003079745 e7e5 303014980335516 15.06800025 16.09862096 17.12924166 10929386237254000
a2a4 e7e6 8985044803750 e7e6 296778862396787 15.0519494 16.07074761 17.08954581 10604660480562400
a2a4 f7f5 2954358030495 f7f5 83496412660445 13.60437097 14.4590242 15.31367744 2547026337242240
a2a4 f7f6 2380569002864 f7f6 63150846993516 13.33990687 14.12640322 14.91289956 1804293593293180
a2a4 g7g5 3210254021991 g7g5 90450613726530 13.70749598 14.55574012 15.40398427 2749348944662230
a2a4 g7g6 3486398694765 g7g6 101120597009803 13.81071285 14.69162954 15.57254623 3167197708051820
a2a4 g8f6 3779345461854 g8f6 109964266892237 13.91238246 14.79463648 15.6768905 3454450905452000
a2a4 g8h6 3021336717900 g8h6 86899022556653 13.63212492 14.5072326 15.38234028 2699550064829590
a2a4 h7h5 3600488537669 h7h5 105917371652320 13.85120009 14.74848009 15.64576009 3366329830931980
a2a4 h7h6 2617494395751 h7h6 73390162544065 13.45546483 14.30440576 15.15334669 2221320740158570
b1a3 a7a5 2998408533739 a7a5 87112726457222 13.6226877 14.51020229 15.39771689 2734842324067190
b1a3 a7a6 2191612559252 a7a6 61211806080331 13.23998876 14.0897385 14.93948824 1846564018478420
b1a3 b7b5 2789256409584 b7b5 80265837110112 13.53343496 14.41155671 15.28967845 2495620694455790
b1a3 b7b6 2799165628378 b7b6 79486175018475 13.53779877 14.39983889 15.26187902 2437272482560900
b1a3 b8a6 2464959342683 b8a6 70164254747876 13.38221984 14.25092298 15.11962613 2157911749106020
b1a3 b8c6 3132579337260 b8c6 91710661510033 13.67700791 14.57253092 15.46805393 2901775497659080
b1a3 c7c5 3426179031597 c7c5 101956640896317 13.78885443 14.70171366 15.61457289 3280132755548850
b1a3 c7c6 3095764582250 c7c6 92057453487994 13.66231697 14.57711499 15.49191302 2960503970227140
b1a3 d7d5 6579029121397 d7d5 213782760833766 14.63145235 15.63739441 16.64333647 7518394495716620
b1a3 d7d6 5141418848126 d7d6 152569571614918 14.30714566 15.20392297 16.10070028 4886320519194050
b1a3 e7e5 7420367747309 e7e5 245413911922747 14.79240114 15.8182438 16.84408646 8786522094364010
b1a3 e7e6 7329868644724 e7e6 240156512798893 14.77590871 15.78972371 16.80353871 8515492285480570
b1a3 f7f5 2440597347251 f7f5 68386284663519 13.37014177 14.22047438 15.07080698 2069067221266150
b1a3 f7f6 1965798356509 f7f6 51715576377483 13.10975126 13.89318378 14.67661631 1466010997159380
b1a3 g7g5 2652993780206 g7g5 74156576416427 13.47195323 14.31679499 15.16163674 2237170750206180
b1a3 g7g6 2885619153844 g7g6 82992220161143 13.57528641 14.4517281 15.32816978 2578540333968630
b1a3 g8f6 3127063653396 g8f6 90221933390595 13.6748169 14.55266987 15.43052284 2811566393974650
b1a3 g8h6 2496011135572 g8h6 71156085799766 13.3974582 14.2676026 15.13774699 2191775912854710
b1a3 h7h5 2979246425479 h7h5 86892547773711 13.61475013 14.50714252 15.39953491 2739043062004750
b1a3 h7h6 2164860429612 h7h6 60202664686828 13.22521431 14.07023365 14.915253 1807998718212130
b1c3 a7a5 3780055952064 a7a5 108906368196855 13.91262021 14.78272302 15.65282582 3386146819116070
b1c3 a7a6 2833513005135 a7a6 78676358383620 13.5528167 14.38755579 15.22229489 2356360326926130
b1c3 b7b5 3579740360135 b7b5 102185619671872 13.84392475 14.70446231 15.56499987 3147303171154960
b1c3 b7b6 3627872380722 b7b6 102560000180389 13.8607441 14.70894422 15.55714434 3126716146223180
b1c3 b8a6 3202933435947 b8a6 90758239085058 13.70465137 14.55985908 15.4150668 2775174801602590
b1c3 b8c6 4038709426025 b8c6 117590239133269 13.99658401 14.87753359 15.75848317 3695620424858880
b1c3 c7c5 4673523038061 c7c5 139185758453322 14.1835797 15.08804255 15.99250539 4476252487267630
b1c3 c7c6 4132170654683 c7c6 122505336153024 14.02572422 14.9283881 15.83105199 3923079198746100
b1c3 d7d5 8609528039799 d7d5 280324148882774 14.99364463 15.99453834 16.99543205 9870035727681740
b1c3 d7d6 6721024593427 d7d6 198772677238487 14.65988281 15.54281665 16.42575049 6336185460912810
b1c3 e7e5 9734312019845 e7e5 319396782574956 15.16194874 16.16941142 17.17687409 11331142974101500
b1c3 e7e6 9673949983287 e7e6 315156256587375 15.15337741 16.15141196 17.14944651 11098170777801100
b1c3 f7f5 3194995401764 f7f5 89324486777629 13.70156015 14.54055145 15.37954275 2693174586844690
b1c3 f7f6 2562043660418 f7f6 67204161826865 13.42929829 14.19982572 14.97035315 1896778372513340
b1c3 g7g5 3426367497609 g7g5 95191429602316 13.78892338 14.61783832 15.44675326 2850255039540170
b1c3 g7g6 3726438023071 g7g6 106545180770398 13.89456325 14.75574532 15.61692739 3286568477725550
b1c3 g8f6 4024438317949 g8f6 115505065598737 13.99208059 14.85536816 15.71865572 3576022353368990
b1c3 g8h6 3240273318363 g8h6 91933283370793 13.71909944 14.57547547 15.4318515 2814715223194400
b1c3 h7h5 3863264762126 h7h5 112124844055370 13.94018664 14.81864478 15.69710292 3512801232503040
b1c3 h7h6 2806400656142 h7h6 77655399822670 13.54097606 14.37190391 15.20283177 2317492656146290
b2b3 a7a5 3392746291242 a7a5 99703595086608 13.77656783 14.67436222 15.5721566 3166167701351230
b2b3 a7a6 2469931985467 a7a6 69488231228498 13.38467181 14.23942999 15.09418818 2111187857524490
b2b3 b7b5 3151467717621 b7b5 91223879261746 13.6844845 14.56606951 15.44765452 2852417706050720
b2b3 b7b6 3193820815740 b7b6 91681330906227 13.70110215 14.57214249 15.44318282 2841702218002610
b2b3 b8a6 2797897757258 b8a6 80458176033797 13.53724121 14.41443139 15.29162156 2499746914217850
b2b3 b8c6 3545526713842 b8c6 104829482106135 13.83184359 14.73579666 15.63974973 3349557118677950
b2b3 c7c5 3931512931660 c7c5 118726060034807 13.96239672 14.88945625 15.81651578 3876507661846320
b2b3 c7c6 3506861529421 c7c6 104999996358379 13.81806232 14.73779259 15.65752287 3399379959031820
b2b3 d7d5 7500785612313 d7d5 246268851935772 14.80690364 15.82282861 16.83875357 8750426815262220
b2b3 d7d6 5841814524668 d7d6 175576169231529 14.47422273 15.38292057 16.2916184 5695540935742860
b2b3 e7e5 8260975132155 e7e5 275532636219159 14.93741937 15.97157532 17.00573127 9948075129143260
b2b3 e7e6 8330314205186 e7e6 275160001120401 14.94877414 15.96977419 16.99077423 9834928317246880
b2b3 f7f5 2784806563374 f7f5 78819639073981 13.53147075 14.38973745 15.24800416 2408624072614480
b2b3 f7f6 2223872954788 f7f6 59187737478412 13.25758875 14.05031232 14.8430359 1697444528247390
b2b3 g7g5 3053406633605 g7g5 86226025100059 13.64521623 14.49783648 15.35045674 2627706927887970
b2b3 g7g6 3304237301841 g7g6 96027558980297 13.74350119 14.62849533 15.51348947 3014556577126850
b2b3 g8f6 3532224248451 g8f6 102925470984976 13.82711773 14.71330503 15.59949232 3239187154463750
b2b3 g8h6 2843083658936 g8h6 81899397746760 13.55697186 14.43577349 15.31457512 2548967996997960
b2b3 h7h5 3386854648570 h7h5 99790318581093 13.77439124 14.67542546 15.57645967 3177560407150650
b2b3 h7h6 2458184799219 h7h6 68990292060239 13.37887212 14.23089886 15.08292559 2090800767083130
b2b4 a7a5 4214199334835 a7a5 124714790868246 14.0508103 14.95064159 15.85047287 3986106538695820
b2b4 a7a6 2534135536803 a7a6 70967692472406 13.41593343 14.26445085 15.11296828 2145591397572970
b2b4 b7b5 2510632775992 b7b5 71432265477277 13.40457403 14.27220917 15.13984431 2195726882340970
b2b4 b7b6 3168206992805 b7b6 89981827453815 13.69107644 14.54943853 15.40780063 2758217130904410
b2b4 b8a6 2823139118362 b8a6 80317944517769 13.54829838 14.41233612 15.27637387 2467536699549540
b2b4 b8c6 3543231212640 b8c6 103534931545894 13.83102924 14.72054565 15.61006206 3267835493045620
b2b4 c7c5 5005816841824 c7c5 151800319146164 14.27242348 15.19752 16.12261653 4973496529954990
b2b4 c7c6 3689572411914 c7c6 109547072782694 13.88201045 14.78995087 15.6978913 3515095479473580
b2b4 d7d5 7480064221874 d7d5 243244158746903 14.80318033 15.80654195 16.80990357 8557519333207300
b2b4 d7d6 5971634511894 d7d6 179009748816733 14.50317275 15.40776775 16.31236276 5790543401920480
b2b4 e7e5 7826183695293 e7e5 257520753105329 14.86417852 15.88184742 16.89951633 9169920625838060
b2b4 e7e6 7877602808973 e7e6 256671145158687 14.87303027 15.87747438 16.88191849 9046558358892250
b2b4 f7f5 2802100009348 f7f5 78511529598780 13.53908831 14.38504152 15.23099474 2373927685987780
b2b4 f7f6 2244501309336 f7f6 59260582516917 13.26872149 14.05175254 14.83478359 1685216870582410
b2b4 g7g5 3085721951365 g7g5 86633872498825 13.65828189 14.50353867 15.34879546 2624012387079760
b2b4 g7g6 3333196448322 g7g6 96218859571020 13.75440794 14.63092162 15.5074353 2999298656913400
b2b4 g8f6 3565234358363 g8f6 103101015466315 13.83881541 14.71539458 15.59197376 3218950042824040
b2b4 g8h6 2860973277032 g8h6 81591532694267 13.56470476 14.4312436 15.29778244 2512871276103570
b2b4 h7h5 3409031058957 h7h5 99539774200319 13.7825662 14.67235144 15.56213668 3139785143961700
b2b4 h7h6 2474130685279 h7h6 68758101660174 13.38673866 14.22690145 15.06706424 2062397240548530
c2c3 a7a5 3805833679230 a7a5 109707505907822 13.92121866 14.79175467 15.66229068 3412861293224750
c2c3 a7a6 2855601945870 a7a6 79064925249030 13.56238759 14.39346387 15.22454015 2360882602033830
c2c3 b7b5 3803985735864 b7b5 109643897255738 13.92060402 14.79103979 15.66147556 3410552985595320
c2c3 b7b6 3675184413522 b7b6 103955280568953 13.87708036 14.72551682 15.57395329 3170919968634970
c2c3 b8a6 3254829588371 b8a6 91955227067666 13.72469079 14.57576536 15.42683993 2802855138648740
c2c3 b8c6 4262150983286 b8c6 124217033677696 14.06527007 14.94565993 15.82604979 3906995037215390
c2c3 c7c5 4665904602203 c7c5 138344147248370 14.18147623 15.08041868 15.97936114 4428660178243490
c2c3 c7c6 4446982428022 c7c6 132651711281492 14.1196564 15.02770766 15.93575893 4274110697650280
c2c3 d7d5 7702194550990 d7d5 249190044155760 14.84261449 15.83838482 16.83415514 8719412609528390
c2c3 d7d6 6066554577093 d7d6 179128098984496 14.52398014 15.40861639 16.29325263 5702972649712410
c2c3 e7e5 10229189509446 e7e5 335391540404953 15.23045363 16.23538812 17.24032262 11887486879148000
c2c3 e7e6 10185963634285 e7e6 332736988921891 15.22459146 16.22464078 17.2246901 11748121306586700
c2c3 f7f5 3173580781962 f7f5 88383294736976 13.69318593 14.52772183 15.36225773 2654089781906780
c2c3 f7f6 2567146067268 f7f6 66859707419899 13.43172746 14.19374633 14.9557652 1872890119952410
c2c3 g7g5 3507515124227 g7g5 97020840894453 13.81829642 14.64104536 15.4637943 2891404377693180
c2c3 g7g6 3770701016091 g7g6 107415768363514 13.90948658 14.7657554 15.62202422 3300539915897060
c2c3 g8f6 4147486776204 g8f6 118955874688307 14.03044238 14.89185588 15.75326938 3679756602246090
c2c3 g8h6 3309648945432 g8h6 93857886553100 13.74554594 14.60066257 15.4557792 2871982316589800
c2c3 h7h5 3945471458188 h7h5 114219670193300 13.96689604 14.84152092 15.71614579 3568606289436780
c2c3 h7h6 2859627916999 h7h6 78976504933643 13.56412475 14.3921218 15.22011886 2351985125639140
c2c4 a7a5 4234444185550 a7a5 123162852229428 14.05693326 14.93504876 15.81316426 3865842609064020
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g1h3 c7c6 3158751563223 c7c6 94174814456752 13.68735679 14.6047647 15.52217261 3036565217997450
g1h3 d7d5 6598437035501 d7d5 214946643861536 14.63537094 15.64447123 16.65357153 7578722876145020
g1h3 d7d6 5172596013514 d7d6 153997481564535 14.31501104 15.21573029 16.11644955 4948822164476250
g1h3 e7e5 7550082279630 e7e5 249284938805459 14.81572405 15.83888735 16.86205065 8909125233072360
g1h3 e7e6 7420897316330 e7e6 242489703908586 14.7924971 15.80245062 16.81240414 8574082841557240
g1h3 f7f5 2415371417328 f7f5 67415968718962 13.35751932 14.2035498 15.04958028 2031501012261380
g1h3 f7f6 1977820118684 f7f6 52073117173671 13.11701946 13.90116286 14.68530626 1477335399131700
g1h3 g7g5 2692355192719 g7g5 75638824672128 13.49000256 14.34042638 15.1908502 2293860775657570
g1h3 g7g6 2925820472523 g7g6 84238167879211 13.59237172 14.46968498 15.34699823 2620020925769580
g1h3 g8f6 3189961862519 g8f6 92332416842324 13.69959637 14.58073836 15.46188035 2886755533146970
g1h3 g8h6 2535337090711 g8h6 72410877360410 13.41651159 14.28840168 15.16029177 2234592193250720
g1h3 h7h5 3088421638153 h7h5 90315875696709 13.65936779 14.553932 15.44849621 2854438813847590
g1h3 h7h6 2218784201934 h7h6 61931135196799 13.25482801 14.10346267 14.95209733 1866927707066660
g2g3 a7a5 3462042063272 a7a5 101143479417071 13.80191358 14.69190656 15.58189953 3192017013929730
g2g3 a7a6 2558093963139 a7a6 71687959685730 13.4274149 14.27645952 15.12550415 2168843256847630
g2g3 b7b5 3347159357670 b7b5 96937643533392 13.75963598 14.6399987 15.52036142 3031962290935270
g2g3 b7b6 3332271634289 b7b6 95410047910027 13.75406097 14.62063301 15.48720505 2948829286963060
g2g3 b8a6 2913902489708 b8a6 83531892698009 13.58732903 14.45953611 15.33174319 2586365921340770
g2g3 b8c6 3669701347445 b8c6 108188016556602 13.87519695 14.77457272 15.67394849 3446032715109900
g2g3 c7c5 4080540803847 c7c5 122476858285782 14.00970157 14.92809888 15.84649619 3973125273169150
g2g3 c7c6 3613100109803 c7c6 108065973644676 13.85560373 14.77318311 15.69076249 3494400129381530
g2g3 d7d5 7492061645416 d7d5 244765168230904 14.80533722 15.81475499 16.82417275 8652435054715990
g2g3 d7d6 5978930494904 d7d6 178550417555891 14.50478273 15.40446923 16.30415574 5752784382520040
g2g3 e7e5 9034320840980 e7e5 300345292387514 15.05943515 16.08675333 17.1140715 10804220732991200
g2g3 e7e6 8863546280836 e7e6 292317793673444 15.03333131 16.05047678 17.06762225 10429159019634800
g2g3 f7f5 2887504270582 f7f5 81719890071911 13.5760924 14.43313414 15.29017587 2496676369734430
g2g3 f7f6 2309333928674 f7f6 61073379996908 13.30311482 14.0870805 14.87104618 1739561504924750
g2g3 g7g5 3104044182919 g7g5 87113692726148 13.66563474 14.51021571 15.35479667 2637381219206540
g2g3 g7g6 3401127309207 g7g6 98450494010483 13.77965818 14.65890369 15.53814921 3077448105775630
g2g3 g8f6 3663605248960 g8f6 106314238303473 13.87309997 14.75307735 15.63305472 3330964668305960
g2g3 g8h6 2939400277587 g8h6 84396415977443 13.59809486 14.47194823 15.3458016 2617366440460700
g2g3 h7h5 3558153588215 h7h5 104638412988316 13.83631455 14.73355658 15.63079862 3324720811716910
g2g3 h7h6 2553986732598 h7h6 71472940687713 13.42545357 14.27288624 15.12031891 2159197475223770
g2g4 a7a5 3101123892672 a7a5 90104255390618 13.66446545 14.55108715 15.43770885 2828635573389210
g2g4 a7a6 2288083822645 a7a6 63697273450084 13.29193954 14.13654902 14.98115851 1914653487853300
g2g4 b7b5 3014401317587 b7b5 86962955421099 13.6292772 14.50812173 15.38696626 2710123113527220
g2g4 b7b6 2992396204874 b7b6 85308570329092 13.62020217 14.48491848 15.34963479 2625878383064710
g2g4 b8a6 2609168662709 b8a6 74346372601899 13.45156836 14.31984494 15.18812152 2288510043815020
g2g4 b8c6 3286537014348 b8c6 96254120986842 13.73679195 14.63136836 15.52594478 3046172424032350
g2g4 c7c5 3694058778117 c7c5 110810246314544 13.88354415 14.80408807 15.72463199 3593737673543760
g2g4 c7c6 3251953081105 c7c6 97084855329079 13.72358767 14.64185013 15.5601126 3134480404288070
g2g4 d7d5 6388692190366 d7d5 207321791906722 14.59245492 15.59745517 16.60245543 7281824340928030
g2g4 d7d6 5071957660106 d7d6 149951425522576 14.28946488 15.18200802 16.07455116 4784153650430360
g2g4 e7e5 7722441535346 e7e5 253853503244365 14.84615728 15.86287603 16.87959477 9030383881003300
g2g4 e7e6 7627152700907 e7e6 249211708642782 14.82940951 15.83849956 16.84758961 8810307686927500
g2g4 f7f5 3275766238746 f7f5 93412836657688 13.73269322 14.59488061 15.457068 2875097174970050
g2g4 f7f6 2176294463955 f7f6 57917277183035 13.2315492 14.02492922 14.81830923 1661049196865370
g2g4 g7g5 2198378721317 g7g5 60888120438021 13.24369954 14.08351457 14.92332959 1820767535473100
g2g4 g7g6 3007731961919 g7g6 86449817897748 13.6265331 14.50096843 15.37540375 2683767419419230
g2g4 g8f6 3300672664999 g8f6 95315387917771 13.74215266 14.61942365 15.49669465 2972405002297890
g2g4 g8h6 2652952491488 g8h6 75580283395814 13.47193417 14.33950115 15.20706812 2325901872173340
g2g4 h7h5 3970520772231 h7h5 117982667976545 13.97493415 14.88166479 15.78839542 3787860125032720
g2g4 h7h6 2335902148587 h7h6 65309272482273 13.31695609 14.16602174 15.01508738 1971797135818950
h2h3 a7a5 2505982957208 a7a5 73260246530057 13.40231523 14.30229389 15.20227256 2316384711346130
h2h3 a7a6 1855923393159 a7a6 52087178055127 13.04138273 13.90147562 14.76156851 1580238306329920
h2h3 b7b5 2388419449919 b7b5 69179094948589 13.34390009 14.23414022 15.12438035 2166749351055500
h2h3 b7b6 2391628234190 b7b6 68415649134749 13.34552885 14.22098312 15.09643739 2115281222093500
h2h3 b8a6 2106198196442 b8a6 60389141405493 13.1922269 14.07386037 14.95549384 1872448390256350
h2h3 b8c6 2672313740065 b8c6 78822140279150 13.48084268 14.38977551 15.29870833 2514849178478310
h2h3 c7c5 2963507688158 c7c5 89188732306415 13.60819584 14.53870862 15.4692214 2904623968684320
h2h3 c7c6 2646757661990 c7c6 79320966034808 13.46907132 14.39734239 15.32561346 2572955520871410
h2h3 d7d5 5744657915164 d7d5 187657849896090 14.4521715 15.46846532 16.48475914 6638559909590620
h2h3 d7d6 4525656326258 d7d6 135235518693219 14.14218475 15.05188521 15.96158567 4365042047881750
h2h3 e7e5 6328330508011 e7e5 210306401043510 14.5798669 15.61604461 16.65222232 7570744768552460
h2h3 e7e6 6246206986214 e7e6 205704463106172 14.56256417 15.58727902 16.61199387 7336398407912360
h2h3 f7f5 2081383218980 f7f5 58792545262990 13.17802073 14.04247055 14.90692038 1794911800371760
h2h3 f7f6 1679359742495 f7f6 44542035614681 12.92339752 13.72137094 14.51934436 1274415582547160
h2h3 g7g5 2303801720326 g7g5 64950608413048 13.3002145 14.15952231 15.01883011 1978196189514460
h2h3 g7g6 2461604613575 g7g6 71309420808506 13.38056311 14.27016219 15.15976126 2233575857076670
h2h3 g8f6 2681701113477 g8f6 77905651056649 13.48514089 14.37575778 15.26637468 2446622246314600
h2h3 g8h6 2149244850751 g8h6 61683534767995 13.21651337 14.09875524 14.98099711 1914385354426360
h2h3 h7h5 2517045793000 h7h5 73770742953023 13.40768314 14.31057266 15.21346218 2338647520533300
h2h3 h7h6 1848155315337 h7h6 51746258222500 13.03641095 13.89387048 14.75133001 1566048920954530
h2h4 a7a5 3608846445097 a7a5 105500114211367 13.85412002 14.74362957 15.63313912 3331198447380730
h2h4 a7a6 2669482509213 a7a6 74891547461938 13.47954364 14.32856617 15.17758871 2267963898234740
h2h4 b7b5 3447759267200 b7b5 99848751664463 13.79672745 14.67614137 15.5555553 3122566871314270
h2h4 b7b6 3448651915597 b7b6 98709976255557 13.79705214 14.66211947 15.5271868 3049341840475640
h2h4 b8a6 3034131522782 b8a6 87021512667642 13.63736298 14.50893558 15.38050817 2695373183943490
h2h4 b8c6 3847826735803 b8c6 113526623843569 13.93511319 14.83399552 15.73287785 3618313740995350
h2h4 c7c5 4262845668242 c7c5 128256515413957 14.06547846 14.98557068 15.9056629 4170355333085870
h2h4 c7c6 3818245147954 c7c6 114451887528427 13.92533978 14.84403307 15.76272636 3708577623512350
h2h4 d7d5 8078915869521 d7d5 264231322510205 14.90718822 15.91593016 16.92467211 9348962687198460
h2h4 d7d6 6351381210950 d7d6 189935366110401 14.5846868 15.48402343 16.38336006 6126870317863310
h2h4 e7e5 9362283648945 e7e5 311596726321626 15.10833225 16.13613086 17.16392947 11220633447220500
h2h4 e7e6 9252486968888 e7e6 305348735315816 15.09213812 16.108917 17.12569588 10900011504522700
h2h4 f7f5 3010450407618 f7f5 85002875391032 13.62765227 14.48058592 15.33351956 2590264247264360
h2h4 f7f6 2424429686586 f7f6 64232914757489 13.36206559 14.14641743 14.93076928 1832603021124870
h2h4 g7g5 4140088084305 g7g5 117634502885289 14.02816518 14.8780002 15.72783521 3603266246413620
h2h4 g7g6 3606352273893 g7g6 104715522171468 13.8532493 14.73446106 15.61567281 3283137794832080
h2h4 g8f6 3811697656815 g8f6 110823970590036 13.92316726 14.80424086 15.68531445 3478660012403890
h2h4 g8h6 3122711452039 g8h6 90052762990721 13.67308559 14.550394 15.42770242 2804892954315660
h2h4 h7h5 2810849732357 h7h5 81300261025135 13.5429262 14.42694341 15.31096062 2541158269423590
h2h4 h7h6 2630485414415 h7h6 73538385526439 13.46152222 14.30681103 15.15209984 2218945853053790
2.09765E+15 6.2855E+16 2039797540246810000
25.61119095
24.71068812 25.11086278 25.51103744
24.617706 25.025674 25.433642
2.09765E+15 6.2855E+16 1.9385E+18
2.09765E+15 6.2855E+16 1.93969E+18
Last edited by Daniel Shawul on Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Daniel Shawul
Posts: 4185 Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:34 am
Location: Ethiopia
Post
by Daniel Shawul » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:12 pm
Here is the same observation from by francois with the same zig-zag plot
http://wismuth.com/chess/statistics-games.html
Daniel Shawul
Posts: 4185 Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:34 am
Location: Ethiopia
Post
by Daniel Shawul » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:20 pm
I am afraid so. Another guy also estimated using what he called "random pruning" a value of 1.981 & 10^18, but who knows these methods may have blind spots which can only be revealed when the number is revealed.
2)More games with my method are needed for a better estimate
to get a smaller error and the program that Sven used to generate the estimate use full makemove and is clearly not optimized for generating estimates.
Yes you need a legal-move generator for bulk counting, may be iperft can help there. There is still time to do more games anyway.
hgm
Posts: 27808 Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 10:06 am
Location: Amsterdam
Full name: H G Muller
Post
by hgm » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:27 pm
It sounds like this guy is using exactly the same method as I do.
Daniel Shawul
Posts: 4185 Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:34 am
Location: Ethiopia
Post
by Daniel Shawul » Mon Jul 11, 2011 11:33 pm
Sounds like it. He is a researcher in mathematics
http://wismuth.com/ so you guys think alike I guess. But he only said "random pruning" so we can't know where he starts pruning, by how much he prunes (N = 16) and other details..