Jesús Muñoz
Joined: 13 Jul 2011
Posts: 687
Location: Madrid, Spain.
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 Post subject: Perft(14) estimate after averaging 174 MC perft samples. Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:26 pm |
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Hello:
I have ran 54 more MonteCarlo Perft(14) samples during the last two weeks (39 of them in this current week). Here are the results:
| Code: |
perftmc 14 (GNU 5.07.173b w32):
121) m=6.189284e+019 sd=1.008047e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186688e+019,6.191881e+019] n=501278987 sdn=2.256944e+020 t=1794.00s
122) m=6.187890e+019 sd=1.123685e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184995e+019,6.190785e+019] n=501279826 sdn=2.515849e+020 t=1797.20s
123) m=6.188323e+019 sd=1.055339e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185604e+019,6.191041e+019] n=501279158 sdn=2.362827e+020 t=1796.28s
124) m=6.188984e+019 sd=1.047161e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186286e+019,6.191681e+019] n=501278865 sdn=2.344515e+020 t=1809.95s
125) m=6.188092e+019 sd=1.007806e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185496e+019,6.190688e+019] n=501277680 sdn=2.256399e+020 t=1810.48s
126) m=6.190602e+019 sd=1.012834e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187993e+019,6.193211e+019] n=501279540 sdn=2.267661e+020 t=1809.20s
127) m=6.189542e+019 sd=9.590962e+015 ci(99%)=[6.187071e+019,6.192012e+019] n=501279403 sdn=2.147346e+020 t=1793.72s
128) m=6.189455e+019 sd=1.003952e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186869e+019,6.192042e+019] n=501279233 sdn=2.247775e+020 t=1797.50s
129) m=6.187941e+019 sd=1.052887e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185229e+019,6.190653e+019] n=501278958 sdn=2.357335e+020 t=1794.56s
130) m=6.188222e+019 sd=9.940390e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185662e+019,6.190783e+019] n=501280319 sdn=2.225583e+020 t=1789.98s
131) m=6.188558e+019 sd=1.040922e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185876e+019,6.191239e+019] n=501279962 sdn=2.330550e+020 t=1788.97s
132) m=6.187640e+019 sd=1.007706e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185045e+019,6.190236e+019] n=501278639 sdn=2.256179e+020 t=1789.83s
133) m=6.188719e+019 sd=1.103660e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185876e+019,6.191562e+019] n=501280461 sdn=2.471017e+020 t=1789.38s
134) m=6.187670e+019 sd=8.907128e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185375e+019,6.189964e+019] n=501279361 sdn=1.994241e+020 t=1788.58s
135) m=6.190021e+019 sd=1.031477e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187364e+019,6.192678e+019] n=501280856 sdn=2.309405e+020 t=1789.97s
136) m=6.186606e+019 sd=1.070175e+016 ci(99%)=[6.183850e+019,6.189363e+019] n=501279708 sdn=2.396046e+020 t=1779.16s
137) m=6.187397e+019 sd=1.159761e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184410e+019,6.190385e+019] n=501279745 sdn=2.596622e+020 t=1782.75s
138) m=6.187630e+019 sd=9.482699e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185187e+019,6.190072e+019] n=501280498 sdn=2.123109e+020 t=1779.52s
139) m=6.189303e+019 sd=1.103679e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186460e+019,6.192146e+019] n=501280212 sdn=2.471058e+020 t=1796.73s
140) m=6.188546e+019 sd=1.137474e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185616e+019,6.191476e+019] n=501279468 sdn=2.546721e+020 t=1799.14s
141) m=6.187604e+019 sd=1.004837e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185016e+019,6.190193e+019] n=501278151 sdn=2.249755e+020 t=1800.30s
142) m=6.187485e+019 sd=1.011928e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184878e+019,6.190092e+019] n=501279472 sdn=2.265633e+020 t=1798.12s
143) m=6.188353e+019 sd=9.887368e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185806e+019,6.190900e+019] n=501277751 sdn=2.213706e+020 t=1795.67s
144) m=6.188995e+019 sd=9.882406e+015 ci(99%)=[6.186449e+019,6.191541e+019] n=501279360 sdn=2.212599e+020 t=1798.36s
145) m=6.188272e+019 sd=9.780943e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185752e+019,6.190791e+019] n=501282312 sdn=2.189888e+020 t=1800.72s
146) m=6.187672e+019 sd=1.084942e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184877e+019,6.190467e+019] n=501277682 sdn=2.429101e+020 t=1798.41s
147) m=6.188110e+019 sd=1.053987e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185394e+019,6.190825e+019] n=501277514 sdn=2.359796e+020 t=1797.59s
148) m=6.187031e+019 sd=1.014276e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184418e+019,6.189644e+019] n=501281110 sdn=2.270894e+020 t=1798.31s
149) m=6.187199e+019 sd=1.117055e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184321e+019,6.190076e+019] n=501278954 sdn=2.501003e+020 t=1797.16s
150) m=6.188504e+019 sd=1.115479e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185631e+019,6.191378e+019] n=501279919 sdn=2.497477e+020 t=1802.39s
151) m=6.186887e+019 sd=1.062790e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184149e+019,6.189625e+019] n=501279154 sdn=2.379509e+020 t=1794.09s
152) m=6.188174e+019 sd=9.944726e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185612e+019,6.190736e+019] n=501279662 sdn=2.226552e+020 t=1790.56s
153) m=6.188554e+019 sd=1.041242e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185872e+019,6.191237e+019] n=501279522 sdn=2.331265e+020 t=1794.12s
154) m=6.190050e+019 sd=9.932023e+015 ci(99%)=[6.187491e+019,6.192608e+019] n=501278635 sdn=2.223706e+020 t=1798.81s
155) m=6.189155e+019 sd=1.149098e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186195e+019,6.192115e+019] n=501279808 sdn=2.572747e+020 t=1793.88s
156) m=6.189017e+019 sd=1.005289e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186427e+019,6.191606e+019] n=501278928 sdn=2.250768e+020 t=1794.17s
157) m=6.187382e+019 sd=1.033040e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184721e+019,6.190044e+019] n=501279086 sdn=2.312901e+020 t=1800.12s
158) m=6.189066e+019 sd=1.103952e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186223e+019,6.191910e+019] n=501280079 sdn=2.471670e+020 t=1804.23s
159) m=6.189075e+019 sd=1.044283e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186385e+019,6.191765e+019] n=501280564 sdn=2.338075e+020 t=1801.02s
160) m=6.187843e+019 sd=1.125054e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184944e+019,6.190741e+019] n=501279519 sdn=2.518915e+020 t=1819.77s
161) m=6.187819e+019 sd=1.075871e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185048e+019,6.190591e+019] n=501280569 sdn=2.408799e+020 t=1819.33s
162) m=6.188285e+019 sd=1.081494e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185499e+019,6.191071e+019] n=501279010 sdn=2.421386e+020 t=1813.84s
163) m=6.188064e+019 sd=1.086191e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185266e+019,6.190862e+019] n=501279776 sdn=2.431903e+020 t=1794.53s
164) m=6.186738e+019 sd=1.015982e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184121e+019,6.189355e+019] n=501279864 sdn=2.274711e+020 t=1798.00s
165) m=6.189776e+019 sd=1.036952e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187105e+019,6.192447e+019] n=501280786 sdn=2.321662e+020 t=1805.20s
166) m=6.187368e+019 sd=1.017968e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184746e+019,6.189991e+019] n=501279713 sdn=2.279156e+020 t=1806.56s
167) m=6.187860e+019 sd=1.142511e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184916e+019,6.190803e+019] n=501280526 sdn=2.558001e+020 t=1816.75s
168) m=6.189199e+019 sd=1.053784e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186485e+019,6.191914e+019] n=501280494 sdn=2.359347e+020 t=1804.31s
169) m=6.188049e+019 sd=1.104201e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185204e+019,6.190893e+019] n=501280569 sdn=2.472228e+020 t=1801.94s
170) m=6.188333e+019 sd=1.055069e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185615e+019,6.191050e+019] n=501280229 sdn=2.362224e+020 t=1804.25s
171) m=6.188742e+019 sd=1.044487e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186051e+019,6.191433e+019] n=501278692 sdn=2.338529e+020 t=1802.48s
172) m=6.187370e+019 sd=1.010134e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184768e+019,6.189973e+019] n=501279299 sdn=2.261615e+020 t=1803.36s
173) m=6.188538e+019 sd=1.209636e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185422e+019,6.191654e+019] n=501278304 sdn=2.708284e+020 t=1800.78s
174) m=6.189349e+019 sd=1.093528e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186533e+019,6.192166e+019] n=501279202 sdn=2.448329e+020 t=1804.97s |
Averaging the accumulated data with Excel:
| Code: |
Averages after N = 174 MonteCarlo perft samples:
<m> ~ 61,882,548,159,772,100,000
<sd> ~ 10,527,431,703,577,400
(Minimum value with 99% confidence) ~ <m> - (2.575829303)<sd> ~ 61,855,431,292,704,700,000
(Maximum value with 99% confidence) ~ <m> + (2.575829303)<sd> ~ 61,909,665,026,839,500,000
<m>/<sd> ~ 5,878.219
<n> ~ 501,279,516.52 |
The average (weighted by the number of nodes of each sample) of the mean values (<m>) still remains between 6.1882e+19 and 6.1883e+19.
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
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