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Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom)
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H.G.Muller



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 15893
Location: Amsterdam

PostPost subject: Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom)    Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:33 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote

Edmund wrote:
I cannot easily recalculate the Elos; I have taken the data from CCRL.


Too bad. In what form do you have the data? Is it a PGN of complete games? Would it be possible to reduce it to just player and result tags? (That would be enough to feed it to BayesElo).

Quote:
Taking into account the elo-delta of the players my model predicts the game outcome on average 0.15 percent-points better.


0.15%? Shocked How do you calculate that? In places (e.g. around +200 delta-Elo) the difference between the green curve and the data points is as much as 5% points, and the statistical noise (based on spread of the points) in that very much lower. Is it just that there are comparatively few games in those points, and a huge number of games in the points from -20 to +20 Elo?

It seems optically clear to me that you can improve the fit (i.e. reduce the 0.15% error) by scaling the ratings up by some 15-20%. I.e. use

Elo(x) = 1 / (1 + 10^(1.2*x/400))

to predict the score.
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Subject Author Date/Time
Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:22 pm
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 6:56 am
            Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:49 am
                  Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:44 am
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Lucas Braesch Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:06 am
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:29 am
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:42 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:52 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:26 pm
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:13 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:33 pm
                                                Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:18 pm
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:00 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:25 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:48 am
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:47 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:55 pm
                                                Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:37 am
                                                      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:27 pm
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Marco Costalba Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:17 am
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Lucas Braesch Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:53 am
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Daniel Shawul Sun Mar 04, 2012 12:01 pm
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:29 pm
            Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:20 pm
                  Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:52 pm
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:12 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:13 pm
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:27 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:32 pm
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Daniel Shawul Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:18 am
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