TalkChess.com
Hosted by Your Move Chess & Games

Author Message
Daniel Shawul

Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 3300
Location: Ethiopia

Post subject: Re: Luke skywalker has done it again.    Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:00 pm

I think Skywalker will explain better if and when it is necessare but from what I understood they did some kind of montecarlo to come up with the percentage. Ofcouse they also made it very very clear there could be flaws.
 Quote: But Alpha-Beta reduces the search to about the square root of the total number of moves. The square root of 10^100, however… Yes, I know. But think about it: you do not need to search every variation to mate. We only need to search a tiny fraction of the overall space. Whenever Rybka evaluates a position with a score of +/– 5.12 we don't need to search any further, we have our proof that in the continuation there is going to be a win or loss, and there is a forced mate somewhere deep down in the tree. We tested a random sampling of positions of varying levels of difficulty that were evaluated at above 5.12, and we never saw a solution fail. So it is safe to use this assumption generally in the search.

 Quote: So this means that the result is not 100% certain, it is just a hypothesis. That is technically correct, similar to the assertion that a position where one side is more than two pieces down, without any compensation, is considered lost, even if you cannot calculate it to a forced mate against any defence. Sure, there theoretically might be a way to save the game, but if Rybka is displaying +5.12 or more the outcome is 99.99999999% secure. That is approximately the confidence number we give to our King's Gambit results: 99.99999999%. It might be that there is a flaw somewhere, but if there is it will not be discovered in the course of this universe – that would require more computational power than could ever be provided. And of course it is possible, and in fact very, very likely, that there is no flaw.

IMO it is a very solid assumption. Better to make baby steps rather than complain "oh chess has gazillion positions so can never be solved...". I wonder if this methodology has been tried before ...
Anyhow a bright way to start the day
_________________
https://sites.google.com/site/dshawul/
https://github.com/dshawul
 Display posts from previous: All Posts1 Day7 Days2 Weeks1 Month3 Months6 Months1 Year Oldest FirstNewest First
Subject Author Date/Time
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:15 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:27 pm
Julien MARCEL Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:34 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:34 pm
Jimmy Huggins Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:42 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:46 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:59 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:30 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:07 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:39 pm
Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:04 pm
Andranik Khachatryan Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:31 pm
Jouni Uski Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:38 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:51 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:04 pm
Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:35 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:49 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:59 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:06 pm
Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:29 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:56 pm
Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:26 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:34 pm
Jef Kaan Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:17 am
Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:22 am
Jef Kaan Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:47 am
Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:53 am
Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:21 am
Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:02 am
Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:06 am
Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:32 am
Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:40 am
Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:26 pm
Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:30 pm
Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:00 pm
Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:08 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:30 pm
Rein Halbersma Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:23 pm
Rein Halbersma Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:46 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:02 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:10 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:29 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:34 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:50 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:59 pm
Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:15 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:22 pm
Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:40 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:51 pm
Dan Honeycutt Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:38 am
Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:17 am
Dan Honeycutt Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:21 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:42 pm
Dan Honeycutt Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:00 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:10 pm
Terry McCracken Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:51 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:10 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:15 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:54 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:30 pm
Marco Costalba Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:40 am
Mark Mason Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:46 am
Daniel Shawul Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:08 am
Mark Mason Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:37 am
Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:22 am
Mark Mason Fri Apr 06, 2012 11:28 am
Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:19 pm
Daniel Shawul Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:03 am
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:09 pm
Carl Bicknell Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:16 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:37 pm
Albert Silver Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:39 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:31 pm
Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:41 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:37 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:32 pm
gerold daniels Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:56 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:33 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:45 pm
Julien MARCEL Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:59 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:50 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:34 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:58 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:47 pm
Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:52 pm
Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:55 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:02 pm
Adam Hair Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:05 am
Uri Blass Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:00 am
Don Dailey Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:40 am
Rodolfo Leoni Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:11 pm
Uri Blass Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:51 pm
Vincent Diepeveen Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:42 am
Thorsten Czub Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:44 am
Marco Costalba Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:59 pm
Alex Newman Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:22 pm
Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:51 pm
Gunnar Harms Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:59 pm
Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:01 pm
Gunnar Harms Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:13 pm
Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:50 pm
Jorge Pichard Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:37 am
Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:44 pm
Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:04 pm
Ian Osgood Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:53 pm
Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:53 pm
George Speight Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:11 pm
Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:15 pm
Don Dailey Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:38 pm
Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:45 pm
Vincent Diepeveen Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:46 pm
Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:12 pm
Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:09 am
Mark Mason Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:52 am
Albert Silver Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:28 pm
gerold daniels Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:00 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:29 pm
Albert Silver Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:08 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:30 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:16 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:31 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:53 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:15 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:21 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:29 pm
Brent M Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:47 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:09 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:48 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:06 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:36 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:54 pm
Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:03 pm
Uri Blass Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:36 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:57 pm
Uri Blass Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:54 am
Daniel Shawul Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:17 am
Vincent Diepeveen Wed Apr 04, 2012 11:56 am
Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:00 pm
George Speight Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:24 am

 Jump to: Select a forum Computer Chess Club Forums----------------Computer Chess Club: General TopicsComputer Chess Club: Tournaments and MatchesComputer Chess Club: Programming and Technical DiscussionsComputer Chess Club: Engine Origins Other Forums----------------Chess Thinkers ForumChess Players ForumForum Help and Suggestions
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
Enhanced with Moby Threads