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Luke skywalker has done it again.
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Daniel Shawul



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 3052
Location: Ethiopia

PostPost subject: Re: Luke skywalker has done it again.    Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:00 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote

I think Skywalker will explain better if and when it is necessare Smile but from what I understood they did some kind of montecarlo to come up with the percentage. Ofcouse they also made it very very clear there could be flaws.
Quote:

But Alpha-Beta reduces the search to about the square root of the total number of moves. The square root of 10^100, however…

Yes, I know. But think about it: you do not need to search every variation to mate. We only need to search a tiny fraction of the overall space. Whenever Rybka evaluates a position with a score of +/– 5.12 we don't need to search any further, we have our proof that in the continuation there is going to be a win or loss, and there is a forced mate somewhere deep down in the tree. We tested a random sampling of positions of varying levels of difficulty that were evaluated at above 5.12, and we never saw a solution fail. So it is safe to use this assumption generally in the search.


Quote:

So this means that the result is not 100% certain, it is just a hypothesis.

That is technically correct, similar to the assertion that a position where one side is more than two pieces down, without any compensation, is considered lost, even if you cannot calculate it to a forced mate against any defence. Sure, there theoretically might be a way to save the game, but if Rybka is displaying +5.12 or more the outcome is 99.99999999% secure. That is approximately the confidence number we give to our King's Gambit results: 99.99999999%. It might be that there is a flaw somewhere, but if there is it will not be discovered in the course of this universe – that would require more computational power than could ever be provided. And of course it is possible, and in fact very, very likely, that there is no flaw.


IMO it is a very solid assumption. Better to make baby steps rather than complain "oh chess has gazillion positions so can never be solved...". I wonder if this methodology has been tried before ...
Anyhow a bright way to start the day Wink
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Subject Author Date/Time
Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:15 pm
      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:27 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Julien MARCEL Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:34 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:34 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Jimmy Huggins Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:42 pm
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:46 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:59 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:30 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:07 pm
                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:39 pm
                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:04 pm
                                                Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Andranik Khachatryan Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:31 pm
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Jouni Uski Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:38 pm
                                                            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:51 pm
                                                            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:04 pm
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:35 pm
                                                Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:49 pm
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:59 pm
                                                            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:06 pm
                                                                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:29 pm
                                                                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:56 pm
                                                                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:26 pm
                                                                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:34 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Jef Kaan Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:17 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:22 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Jef Kaan Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:47 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:53 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:21 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:02 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:06 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:32 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:40 am
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Dan Honeycutt Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:26 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:30 pm
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:00 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:08 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:30 pm
                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Rein Halbersma Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:23 pm
                                                Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Rein Halbersma Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:46 pm
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:02 pm
                                                            More Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:10 pm
                                                                  Re: More Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:29 pm
                                                                        Re: More Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:34 pm
                                                                              Re: More Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:50 pm
                                                                                    Re: More Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:15 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:22 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:40 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:51 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Dan Honeycutt Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:38 am
                                                                                          Re: More Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:17 am
                                                                                          Re: More Dan Honeycutt Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:42 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Dan Honeycutt Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:10 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Terry McCracken Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:51 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:10 pm
                                                                                          Re: More Miguel A. Ballicora Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:15 pm
                                                                  Even More Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:54 pm
                                                                        Re: Even More Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:30 pm
                                                                              Re: Even More Marco Costalba Thu Apr 05, 2012 4:40 am
                                                                                    Re: Even More Mark Mason Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:46 am
                                                                                          Re: Even More Daniel Shawul Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:08 am
                                                                                          Re: Even More Mark Mason Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:37 am
                                                                                          Re: Even More Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:22 am
                                                                                          Re: Even More Mark Mason Fri Apr 06, 2012 11:28 am
                                                                                          Re: Even More Daniel Shawul Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:19 pm
                                                                                    Re: Even More Daniel Shawul Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:03 am
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:09 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Carl Bicknell Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:16 pm
                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:37 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Albert Silver Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:39 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:31 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:41 pm
      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:37 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:32 pm
      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. gerold daniels Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:56 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:33 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:45 pm
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Julien MARCEL Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:59 pm
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:50 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:34 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:58 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:47 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:52 pm
                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:55 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:02 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Adam Hair Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:05 am
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Uri Blass Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:00 am
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:40 am
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Rodolfo Leoni Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:11 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Uri Blass Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:51 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Vincent Diepeveen Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:42 am
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Thorsten Czub Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:44 am
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Marco Costalba Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:59 pm
      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Alex Newman Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:22 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:51 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Gunnar Harms Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:59 pm
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Ricardo Barreira Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:01 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Gunnar Harms Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:13 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Miguel A. Ballicora Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:50 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Jorge Pichard Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:37 am
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Graham Banks Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:44 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:04 pm
      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Ian Osgood Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:53 pm
            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:53 pm
                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. George Speight Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:11 pm
                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:15 pm
                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Don Dailey Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:38 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:45 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Vincent Diepeveen Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:46 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:12 pm
                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:09 am
                                                Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Mark Mason Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:52 am
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Albert Silver Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:28 pm
                                                            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. gerold daniels Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:00 pm
                                                            Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:29 pm
                                                                  Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Albert Silver Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:08 pm
                                                                        Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:30 pm
                                                                              Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:16 pm
                                                                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:31 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:53 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:15 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:29 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Brent M Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:47 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:09 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:48 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:36 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:54 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Terry McCracken Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:03 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Uri Blass Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:36 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:57 pm
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Uri Blass Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:54 am
                                                                                          Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Daniel Shawul Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:17 am
                                                Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Vincent Diepeveen Wed Apr 04, 2012 11:56 am
                                                      Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Julien MARCEL Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:00 pm
                                    Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. George Speight Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:24 am
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