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Daniel Shawul
Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 2285
Location: Ethiopia
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 Post subject: Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:00 pm |
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I think Skywalker will explain better if and when it is necessare  but from what I understood they did some kind of montecarlo to come up with the percentage. Ofcouse they also made it very very clear there could be flaws.
| Quote: |
But Alpha-Beta reduces the search to about the square root of the total number of moves. The square root of 10^100, however…
Yes, I know. But think about it: you do not need to search every variation to mate. We only need to search a tiny fraction of the overall space. Whenever Rybka evaluates a position with a score of +/– 5.12 we don't need to search any further, we have our proof that in the continuation there is going to be a win or loss, and there is a forced mate somewhere deep down in the tree. We tested a random sampling of positions of varying levels of difficulty that were evaluated at above 5.12, and we never saw a solution fail. So it is safe to use this assumption generally in the search.
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| Quote: |
So this means that the result is not 100% certain, it is just a hypothesis.
That is technically correct, similar to the assertion that a position where one side is more than two pieces down, without any compensation, is considered lost, even if you cannot calculate it to a forced mate against any defence. Sure, there theoretically might be a way to save the game, but if Rybka is displaying +5.12 or more the outcome is 99.99999999% secure. That is approximately the confidence number we give to our King's Gambit results: 99.99999999%. It might be that there is a flaw somewhere, but if there is it will not be discovered in the course of this universe – that would require more computational power than could ever be provided. And of course it is possible, and in fact very, very likely, that there is no flaw.
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IMO it is a very solid assumption. Better to make baby steps rather than complain "oh chess has gazillion positions so can never be solved...". I wonder if this methodology has been tried before ...
Anyhow a bright way to start the day 
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Date/Time |
 Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:15 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:27 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:34 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:34 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:42 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:46 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Don Dailey |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:59 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:30 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:07 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:39 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Dan Honeycutt |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:04 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:31 pm |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:38 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:51 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:04 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:35 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:49 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:59 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:06 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Dan Honeycutt |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:29 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:56 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:26 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:34 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Jef Kaan |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:17 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:22 am |
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Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:47 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:53 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Sam Hamilton |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:21 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:02 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:06 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:32 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:30 pm |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:23 pm |
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Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:46 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:02 pm |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:50 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 4:34 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:58 pm |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:47 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:52 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
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Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:55 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:02 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Adam Hair |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:05 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Uri Blass |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:00 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Don Dailey |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:40 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Rodolfo Leoni |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:11 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Uri Blass |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:51 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Vincent Diepeveen |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:42 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Thorsten Czub |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:44 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Marco Costalba |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:59 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Alex Newman |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:22 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Ricardo Barreira |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:51 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Gunnar Harms |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:59 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Ricardo Barreira |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:01 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Gunnar Harms |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:13 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Miguel A. Ballicora |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:50 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Jorge Pichard |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:37 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Graham Banks |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:44 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:04 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Ian Osgood |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 7:53 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:53 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
George Speight |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:11 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:15 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Don Dailey |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:38 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Sam Hamilton |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:45 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Vincent Diepeveen |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:46 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:12 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Julien MARCEL |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:09 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Mark Mason |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:52 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Albert Silver |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:28 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
gerold daniels |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:00 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 2:29 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Albert Silver |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:08 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:30 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:16 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:31 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 4:53 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:15 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:21 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:29 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Brent M |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:47 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:09 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:48 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:06 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:36 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:54 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Terry McCracken |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 7:03 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Uri Blass |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:36 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 9:57 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Uri Blass |
Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:54 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Daniel Shawul |
Thu Apr 05, 2012 9:17 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Vincent Diepeveen |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 11:56 am |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
Julien MARCEL |
Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:00 pm |
| Re: Luke skywalker has done it again. |
George Speight |
Fri Apr 06, 2012 4:24 am |
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