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Comparative nodes per second
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Don Dailey



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4323
PostPost subject: Re: Comparative nodes per second    Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 10:57 am Reply to topic Reply with quote
mcostalba wrote:
bob wrote:
Someone has previously suggested, although I have not given it much thought, that I could produce a pretty good eval -> winning percentage formula on my cluster stuff.


This eval <-> winning percentage stuff is really misleading. I don't know from where it came out but a lot of people (normally chess players more then programmers) blindly believes in this fetish. Eval score has no meaning taken as an absolute single number. It has a sense only considered relative to another eval score from another position. So it is just a part of a pair use to compare positions but what counts for the engine search is the pair.



Converting to a win probability is an ill defined concept because win probability is all about your opponent and how he plays and how you play etc... In fact the same position where one side has an advantage has different win probabilities for a pair of strong players vs a pair of weak players in many cases because the advantage may exist only if you have the skill to exploit it.

But it's no worse a concept than eval score and it does attempt to attach a reasonable meaning to it, after all everyone know that the bigger your advantage the better wining chances you have, all other things being equal.

I think you could even improve your chess program by considering this a win probability instead of a score - or at least thinking about it that way. You could take thousands or even millions of positions and index them by type (perhaps by material signature) and track the actual win percentage and you may be able to prove that your program has problems when the actual win percentage does not match the evaluation function converted to win percentage. For a silly example, imagine that your program has the sign wrong for the bishop pair bonus, a serious mis-evaluation issue. If you were to plot on a graph all the positions where one side had a bishop pair advantage, you might find that the win percentage predicted is much lower than the win percentage actually achieved, but only in these positions! That would be a clear sign there was an evaluation problem I would think.

I think it might require a lot of games in order to deal with a lot of noise that would surely come from positional features that did not appear that often but it might be a way to tune a chess program evaluation function.

Quote:



Don said instead an interesting thing, that the same eval is not the same if returned upon searching the leafs or high in the tree.


But as I said, I don't know what to do about that! If you modify the score to account for that you in a feedback loop, you would change the root score. If a system could be worked out I believe there would be many opportunities based on things going on in the tree.
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Subject Author Date/Time
Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:49 pm
      Re: Comparative nodes per second Vincent Diepeveen Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:16 pm
      Re: Comparative nodes per second Marco Costalba Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:41 pm
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:02 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Thomas Petzke Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:30 pm
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Richard Vida Tue Apr 10, 2012 10:15 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Tue Apr 10, 2012 10:18 pm
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 10, 2012 10:54 pm
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Richard Vida Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:28 pm
                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:52 am
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Wed Apr 11, 2012 11:23 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Wed Apr 11, 2012 11:50 pm
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:07 am
      Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:31 pm
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Tue Apr 10, 2012 9:35 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:10 am
      Re: Comparative nodes per second Daniel Shawul Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:41 pm
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:05 am
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:28 am
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Marco Costalba Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:58 am
                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:04 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Daniel Shawul Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:27 pm
      Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:59 pm
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:25 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:36 pm
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:06 pm
            Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:28 pm
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:10 pm
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:59 pm
                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:19 am
                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:15 am
                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:35 am
                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Thu Apr 12, 2012 2:32 am
                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 2:50 am
                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:10 am
                                                Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:35 am
                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Thu Apr 12, 2012 2:37 pm
                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:24 pm
                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:25 pm
                                                Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:33 pm
                                                      Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:41 pm
                                                      Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:13 pm
                                                            Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:00 pm
                                                            Re: Comparative nodes per second Daniel Homan Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:52 pm
                                                                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:26 pm
                                                                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:40 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:51 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sat Apr 14, 2012 4:23 am
                                                                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:05 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sat Apr 14, 2012 6:46 pm
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Sat Apr 14, 2012 6:56 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:31 am
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sat Apr 14, 2012 7:47 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:36 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:47 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:14 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:02 pm
                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:50 pm
                                                Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:12 pm
                                                      Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sat Apr 14, 2012 4:28 am
                                                            Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sat Apr 14, 2012 4:45 am
                                                                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sat Apr 14, 2012 4:46 pm
                                                                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:10 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:35 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:38 am
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:51 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:20 pm
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Sun Apr 15, 2012 12:14 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:21 pm
                                                                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:17 pm
                                                                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:22 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:36 pm
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Sat Apr 14, 2012 5:47 pm
                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:49 pm
                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 5:14 pm
                                                Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:00 pm
                                                      Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:37 pm
                                                            Re: Comparative nodes per second Jon Dart Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:50 pm
                                                            Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:53 pm
                                                                  Re: Comparative nodes per second Lucas Braesch Sun Apr 15, 2012 4:56 am
                                                                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:16 am
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Lucas Braesch Sun Apr 15, 2012 7:58 am
                                                                        Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Sun Apr 15, 2012 1:10 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Sun Apr 15, 2012 2:48 pm
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Sun Apr 15, 2012 3:26 pm
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Tue Apr 17, 2012 5:17 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:05 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:11 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:16 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:45 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 17, 2012 6:55 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:16 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:25 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Tue Apr 17, 2012 7:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:14 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:33 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:51 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Vincent Diepeveen Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:12 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Wed Apr 18, 2012 12:28 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Miguel A. Ballicora Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:28 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:32 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Miguel A. Ballicora Wed Apr 18, 2012 4:44 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Miguel A. Ballicora Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:28 pm
                                                                              Re: Comparative nodes per second José C. Martínez Galán Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:16 am
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 19, 2012 9:53 pm
                                                                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:22 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second José C. Martínez Galán Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:49 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 19, 2012 11:21 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Marco Costalba Fri Apr 20, 2012 5:18 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Michel Van den Bergh Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:10 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Miguel A. Ballicora Fri Apr 20, 2012 11:35 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Fri Apr 20, 2012 10:57 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Marco Costalba Fri Apr 20, 2012 1:58 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Sam Hamilton Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:19 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Miguel A. Ballicora Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:29 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:13 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Fri Apr 20, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Uri Blass Sat Apr 21, 2012 6:03 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Marco Costalba Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:14 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Ed Schroder Sat Apr 21, 2012 10:50 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Marco Costalba Sat Apr 21, 2012 11:13 am
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Fri Apr 20, 2012 12:31 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Dan Andersson Fri Apr 20, 2012 4:14 pm
                                                                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Don Dailey Fri Apr 20, 2012 4:38 pm
                                                            Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:10 pm
                                                Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:55 pm
                                                      Re: Comparative nodes per second (early results) Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:36 pm
                              Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:13 pm
                                    Re: Comparative nodes per second Larry Kaufman Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:18 pm
                                          Re: Comparative nodes per second Robert Hyatt Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:55 pm
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