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Don Dailey

Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4323

Post subject: Re: Elo Increase per Doubling    Posted: Wed May 09, 2012 5:00 pm

Don wrote:
 petero2 wrote: Yes, the logarithmic formula goes to infinity, so not a good approximation for large x. Here is an exponential fit instead: Elo=1495+2996*(1-exp(-Name/12.8))

I've added 2 more levels to the same test and I'm going to get a larger sample of games. This is interesting, so even though I don't know if it's a very accurate way to estimate the highest rating it's a lot of fun to try.

I wrote a quicky program to find the 3 constants in this formula that minimizes the "least squares" error. With the new data points I get this:

Elo = 1488.20 + 2692.70 * (1 - exp( -level / 11.09 )

And the maximum achievable ELO is ... (drum roll please) is 4180! I don't have large samples at these high levels and I will continue to run the test for at least a couple more days or longer - and recheck the estimate.

It may be interesting to run the same test on a different program and see if the estimate is in the same ballpark. Preferably a program that has a solid fixed nodes testing level. This would make the "guess" more believable if they agreed.

Don

P.S. I also did a run where I used the same numbers but reduced the ELO levels of the highest 3 entries by 10, 20 and 30 ELO respectively to give a pessimistic answer. Even with this reduction we get the asymptote of 4052.

There are all sorts of problems with this type of estimate - ELO is just an approximate model and it's not even transitive - self play exaggerating the ELO is another potential issue. I would like to believe that playing hundreds of ELO down cancels the self-play effect and I think it does but I cannot quantify any of this. Style of play can effect your ELO too but I think that falls under the category of trying to measure ELO as if where transitive when it's not.

I cannot quite reconcile this data because:

1. Projected ELO for Komodo at level 12 (2 million nodes) is 3250.
2. I don't believe Komodo at 40/2 hours against a human is 3250 ELO looking at 2 million nodes.

Of course point 2 is just my opinion. At 2 million nodes Komodo is looking about 16.4 depth which for Komodo is a lot (Komodo is slow at a given depth but stronger compared to other top programs.)

Shredder is assumed to be 2800 on most tests - presumably that is an estimate of Shredders's level of play against humans at 40/2 hours. My estimate of level 00 (512 nodes) is based on the same reasoning, that Komodo looking at 512 nodes and playing against a human at 40/2 hour time control would play about 1500 ELO FIDE strength. I don't think this is off by more than 100 ELO. So the understanding is that playing against a human at 40/2 hours a perfect player would play at the 4000+ level - and obviously the human would draw occasionally or else the rating would be infinite.
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Subject Author Date/Time
Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 11:40 am
Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 12:04 pm
Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 4:48 pm
Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 4:54 pm
Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 8:50 pm
Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 9:00 pm
Mark Pearce Thu May 10, 2012 4:43 pm
H.G.Muller Mon May 07, 2012 12:13 pm
Michel Van den Bergh Mon May 07, 2012 2:01 pm
Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 5:12 pm
Don Dailey Mon May 07, 2012 6:40 pm
Robert Wagner Campos Tue May 08, 2012 12:38 am
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 3:32 am
Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 10:02 am
Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 10:55 am
Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:08 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 11:29 am
Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 11:59 am
Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:13 pm
Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 10:21 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 10:52 pm
Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:14 pm
Kai Laskos Wed May 09, 2012 12:20 am
Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 2:44 am
H.G.Muller Wed May 09, 2012 8:05 am
Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 5:12 pm
Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 3:11 am
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:03 am
Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 5:19 am
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 12:43 pm
Peter Österlund Thu May 10, 2012 4:59 pm
Julien MARCEL Thu May 10, 2012 5:09 pm
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:41 pm
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:46 pm
Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:09 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:10 pm
Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:28 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:36 pm
Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 1:15 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 2:37 pm
Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 3:15 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:15 pm
Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 8:06 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 8:25 pm
Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 9:00 pm
Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 9:02 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:06 pm
Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 4:26 pm
Peter Österlund Wed May 09, 2012 4:52 pm
Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:19 pm
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 1:41 pm
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 4:52 pm
Adam Hair Thu May 10, 2012 9:07 pm
Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 10:55 pm
Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 12:46 am
Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 1:06 am
Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:00 pm
Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 9:05 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:18 pm
Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:26 pm
Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 2:50 am
Adam Hair Tue May 15, 2012 3:17 am
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:23 pm
Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:18 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:25 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:27 pm
Robert Hyatt Tue May 08, 2012 3:36 pm
Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 5:32 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 5:48 pm
Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 6:30 pm
Julien MARCEL Fri May 11, 2012 6:52 pm
Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 7:08 pm

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