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Statistical interpretation of search and eval scores.
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Jon Dart



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 3354
Location: http://www.arasanchess.org

PostPost subject: Re: Statistical interpretation of search and eval scores.    Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:38 am Reply to topic Reply with quote

The usual way to turn scores into a outcome predictor is to use a sigmoid function to transform the values -MATE .. MATE into a 0..1 range (0 being 100% probability of loss, and 1 being 100% probability of win). A scaling factor may have to be applied in the function to get the probabilities correct. But this seems to be empirically sound, at least. It is also a standard model in the machine learning community (Logistic Regression).

Since there are three possible game outcomes though, for machine learning Ordinal Logistic Regression is possibly a sounder approach.

--Jon
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Subject Author Date/Time
Statistical interpretation of search and eval scores. J. Wesley Cleveland Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:19 pm
      Re: Statistical interpretation of search and eval scores. Robert Pope Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:49 am
      Re: Statistical interpretation of search and eval scores. Jon Dart Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:38 am
      Re: Statistical interpretation of search and eval scores. Joseph Koss Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:38 pm
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