Search found 4916 matches

by Don
Tue Oct 29, 2013 5:13 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: What is wrong with Stockfish in TCEC
Replies: 14
Views: 3914

Re: What is wrong with Stockfish in TCEC

I don't know where this comes from, but Syzygy are of course used, just not 6-men, but 5. And it works nicely. OK good. Yes I've played 3,000 games with one of the Stockfish Syzygy versions with 5-men on SSD. It does indeed work very well. I think as Don says, it is just having a bad or unlucky tou...
by Don
Tue Oct 29, 2013 2:06 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

After round 52 where Komodo draws against Gull: Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 45.018 99.068 Houdini 43.729 99.213 Bouquet 6.383 89.547 Critter 1.993 72.201 Hiarcs 1.118 58.062 Stockfish 0.797 61.655 Gull 0.575 53.104 Rybka 0.291 48.654 Naum 0.094 18.377 Junior 0.000 0...
by Don
Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:59 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: What is wrong with Stockfish in TCEC
Replies: 14
Views: 3914

What is wrong with Stockfish in TCEC

I have heard that question a lot. My short answer is "probably nothing" and I have a prediction for the next round. At the moment each program has played 11 or less games. The error margins for such a tiny sample of games is well over 100 ELO. The error margin even allows for the possibility that St...
by Don
Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:24 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

After round 52 where Komodo draws against Gull: Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 45.018 99.068 Houdini 43.729 99.213 Bouquet 6.383 89.547 Critter 1.993 72.201 Hiarcs 1.118 58.062 Stockfish 0.797 61.655 Gull 0.575 53.104 Rybka 0.291 48.654 Naum 0.094 18.377 Junior 0.000 0....
by Don
Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:12 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

And after the Stockfish win in round 51 we see that Stockfish as a good chance of qualifying for the next round. Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 44.948 99.052 Houdini 43.799 99.201 Bouquet 6.348 89.544 Critter 2.011 72.319 Hiarcs 1.112 57.998 Stockfish 0.807 61.694 Gull ...
by Don
Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:10 am
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

Here is the sim after Hodini beats Rybka in round 50 Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 44.791 99.113 Houdini 44.269 99.284 Bouquet 6.320 90.212 Critter 2.001 74.127 Hiarcs 1.160 60.497 Gull 0.551 54.432 Stockfish 0.518 51.339 Rybka 0.290 50.616 Naum 0.099 19.771 Junior 0.0...
by Don
Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:54 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

Look again silly, if you cannot do in mind, take a pencil, 1SD error bars are about 30 points in 48 games with 70% draws. Komodo is expected to meet in the Superfinal an opponent which is 20-30 points weaker on average than itself. That is 2/3 to 1 SD, meaning 70% to 84% to win, and here comes your...
by Don
Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:35 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

Here is an update after the 48th round Bouquet 1.8b vs Gull 2.3 draw: Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 52.627 99.038 Houdini 29.747 96.995 Bouquet 7.994 89.065 Critter 3.986 75.050 Rybka 2.705 69.402 Hiarcs 1.378 51.050 Gull 0.786 51.962 Stockfish 0.663 48.579 Naum 0.114 ...
by Don
Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:53 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

I can give my simulations for Stage 4 and the Superfinal, after 45 games in Stage 3: To qualify for the Superfinal: Komodo: 62% Houdini: 53% SF: 27% Rybka: 15% Critter: 15% Bouquet: 14% Gull: 11% Hiarcs: 1% Naum: 1% Junior: 0% To win nTCEC: Komodo: 47% Houdini: 30% SF: 12% Rybka: 3% Critter: 3% Bou...
by Don
Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:37 pm
Forum: Computer Chess Club: General Topics
Topic: nTCEC simulation
Replies: 71
Views: 10908

Re: nTCEC simulation

I can give my simulations for Stage 4 and the Superfinal, after 45 games in Stage 3: To qualify for the Superfinal: Komodo: 62% Houdini: 53% SF: 27% Rybka: 15% Critter: 15% Bouquet: 14% Gull: 11% Hiarcs: 1% Naum: 1% Junior: 0% To win nTCEC: Komodo: 47% Houdini: 30% SF: 12% Rybka: 3% Critter: 3% Bou...