I don't want to beat the position to death by analysis but I'm still sure how good white's winning chances are, even though Rybka predicts a draw. I have been analyzing the leaf positions of some Ancalagon's PVs with Shredder in the background, this is with an older version of the Shredder GUI so also with just an older version Shredder 9, but it should still be a lot better than just the static evaluations of the position Shredder is sometimes a bit over-optimistic but it does still see very slight winning chances it seems, in the early endgames that arise. No EGTB probes, those are still too far off, but the endgames are still complex enough to be interesting for the attacker not to give a draw and too complex to evaluate precisely even after an hour or two on my slow computer.rightrook wrote:>>>Actually I am not so sure this is won for White Robert. So maybe it was not such a good analysis<<<

Maybe so....guess that is why some Novag machines take 1 or 2 hours to find it....

Thanks for all the good replies!

Robert

This is the result for the start position, build 211 is a bit slower but also more careful I hope:

[D]r1bq1r2/1p2Npkp/3p2p1/p7/3NP1nQ/1B2b3/PPP3PP/R4R1K w - -

Engine: Ancalagon 1.3 WS180BC5050 Build 211 (Athlon 2009 MHz, 256 MB)

by Romstad, Costalba, Kiiski, de Groot

2.00 0:00 +1.56 1.Rad1 Nf2+ 2.Rxf2 Bxf2 3.Qxf2 Qxe7 (14.045) 17

2.00 0:00 +5.50 1.c3 g5 2.Nef5+ Bxf5 3.Nxf5+ Kh8

4.Qxg4 (27.048) 33

3.01 0:01 +1.25 1.c3 Nf2+ (176.459) 161

3.02 0:01 +5.60 1.Rad1 g5 2.Nef5+ Bxf5 3.Nxf5+ Kh8

4.Qxg4 (179.298) 161

4.01 0:01 +5.58 1.Rad1 Nf2+ 2.Rxf2 Bxf2 3.Qxf2 Qxe7

4.Rf1 Qxe4 5.Bxf7 (257.122) 210

5.01 0:01 +1.25 1.Rad1 Nf2+ (441.277) 294

6.01 0:03 -0.39 1.Rad1 Nf2+ 2.Rxf2 Bxf2 3.Qxf2 Qxe7

4.Nb5 a4 5.Bc4 Be6 6.Be2 (1.423.490) 437

**6.02 0:04 +1.50 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.fxg6 fxg6**

4.Nxg6 hxg6 (1.852.277) 454

7.01 0:10 +0.49 1.Ndf5+ gxf5 2.exf5 Ne5 3.Rae1 f6

4.Rxe3 Qxe7 5.Rh3 Kh8 6.Kg1 (5.836.667) 535

8.01 0:18 +0.49 1.Ndf5+ gxf5 2.exf5 Ne5 3.Rae1 f6

4.Rxe3 Qxe7 5.Rh3 Kh8 6.Kg1 (11.164.067) 591

9.01 0:42 +0.66 1.Ndf5+ gxf5 2.exf5 Ne5 3.Rae1 f6

4.Nxc8 Bg5 5.Qg3 a4 6.Nxd6 axb3 (25.825.085) 607

10.01 1:22 +1.01 1.Ndf5+ (52.581.583) 640

11.01 2:11 +1.09 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Rad1 Qe8

8.Qxe8 Rfxe8 9.Bxd5 Nxd5 10.Rxd5 (80.472.197) 612

12.01 5:16 +1.09 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Rad1 Qe8

8.Qxe8 Rfxe8 9.Bxd5 Nxd5 10.Rxd5 (200.686.829) 634

13.01 14:51 +1.17 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 a3 7.bxa3 d5

8.Bb5 Kh8 (559.904.199) 628

14.01 38:29 +1.03 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Bb5 Qd6

8.Rae1 a3 9.fxg6 axb2 (1.430.011.037) 619

15.01 131:15 +1.25 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Bb5 a3

8.bxa3 Ra5 9.Rab1 Kg8 10.fxg6 fxg6

{Pos 1 +1.97 [D]3q1rk1/1p5p/5np1/rB1p4/8/P3Q3/P1P3PP/1R3R1K w - -}(4.611.591.443) 585

16.01 437:05 +1.11 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Bd3 Kh8

8.Rab1 Re8 9.Qd4 g5 10.Rbe1 Kg8

11.Rxe8+ Nxe8

{Pos 2 +1.89 [D]r2qn1k1/1p3p1p/8/3p1Pp1/p2Q4/3B4/PPP3PP/5R1K w - -} (12.037.007.478) 458

4.Nxg6 hxg6 (1.852.277) 454

7.01 0:10 +0.49 1.Ndf5+ gxf5 2.exf5 Ne5 3.Rae1 f6

4.Rxe3 Qxe7 5.Rh3 Kh8 6.Kg1 (5.836.667) 535

8.01 0:18 +0.49 1.Ndf5+ gxf5 2.exf5 Ne5 3.Rae1 f6

4.Rxe3 Qxe7 5.Rh3 Kh8 6.Kg1 (11.164.067) 591

9.01 0:42 +0.66 1.Ndf5+ gxf5 2.exf5 Ne5 3.Rae1 f6

4.Nxc8 Bg5 5.Qg3 a4 6.Nxd6 axb3 (25.825.085) 607

10.01 1:22 +1.01 1.Ndf5+ (52.581.583) 640

11.01 2:11 +1.09 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Rad1 Qe8

8.Qxe8 Rfxe8 9.Bxd5 Nxd5 10.Rxd5 (80.472.197) 612

12.01 5:16 +1.09 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Rad1 Qe8

8.Qxe8 Rfxe8 9.Bxd5 Nxd5 10.Rxd5 (200.686.829) 634

13.01 14:51 +1.17 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 a3 7.bxa3 d5

8.Bb5 Kh8 (559.904.199) 628

14.01 38:29 +1.03 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Bb5 Qd6

8.Rae1 a3 9.fxg6 axb2 (1.430.011.037) 619

15.01 131:15 +1.25 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Bb5 a3

8.bxa3 Ra5 9.Rab1 Kg8 10.fxg6 fxg6

{Pos 1 +1.97 [D]3q1rk1/1p5p/5np1/rB1p4/8/P3Q3/P1P3PP/1R3R1K w - -}(4.611.591.443) 585

16.01 437:05 +1.11 1.Ndf5+ Bxf5 2.exf5 Nf6 3.Nd5 Nxd5

4.Qh3 Nf6 5.Qxe3 a4 6.Bc4 d5 7.Bd3 Kh8

8.Rab1 Re8 9.Qd4 g5 10.Rbe1 Kg8

11.Rxe8+ Nxe8

{Pos 2 +1.89 [D]r2qn1k1/1p3p1p/8/3p1Pp1/p2Q4/3B4/PPP3PP/5R1K w - -} (12.037.007.478) 458

Shredder evaluates the leafpositions still a bit higher than Ancalagon's static eval indicates so it is not sure the game would end with a bloodless draw...

Analysis of leaf-position 15 plies {Pos 1} by Shredder 9

3q1rk1/1p5p/5np1/rB1p4/8/P3Q3/P1P3PP/1R3R1K w - -

Engine: Shredder 9 UCI (64 MB)

by Stefan Meyer-Kahlen

17/39 6:46 +1.84 1.a4 Ra8 2.Qe5 Rc8 3.c4 d4 4.Rbd1 d3

5.c5 d2 (99.355.939) 244

17/41 8:21 +1.85++ 1.Qe5 (122.545.322) 244

17/44 10:03 +1.90 1.Qe5 Kg7 2.a4 Qb8 3.Qb2 Qd6 4.Rbd1 h6

5.c4 Kh7 6.Qd4 (146.977.035) 243

18/46 16:34 +2.11 1.Qe5 Kg7 2.a4 Ra8 3.Rbd1 Qb8 (241.279.578) 242

19/48 25:18 +2.12 1.Qe5 Kg7 2.a4 Ra8 3.Rbd1 Qb8 4.Rxd5 Qxe5

5.Rxe5 Rf7 6.Kg1 Rc8 7.Bd3 Nd7

8.Ree1 Ra8 (371.142.911) 244

20/52 45:48 +2.18 1.Qe5 Kg7 2.a4 Ra8 3.Rbd1 Qb8 4.Rxd5 Qxe5

5.Rxe5 Rf7 6.Kg1 Rc8 7.Bd3 Nd7 8.Rb5 Rxf1+

9.Kxf1 (675.733.042) 245

21/57 99:41 +1.95 1.Qe5 Kg7 2.a4 Qb8 3.Qe6 Ra8 4.Rb3 Qc8

5.Qe5 Qb8 6.Qc3 Qd8 (1.491.917.868) 249

21/57 148:32 +1.96++ 1.a4 (2.224.356.593) 249

21/57 162:25 +1.97 1.a4 Ra8 2.c4 d4 3.Qe5 Rc8 4.Rbd1 d3

5.Rf3 d2 6.Qe3 Rf7 7.Rxd2 Qe7 8.Kg1 (2.429.413.281) 249

best move: a3-a4 time: 171:09.828 min n/s: 249.543 CPU 49.8% n/s(1CPU): 501.090 nodes: 2.562.729.754

Analysis of leaf-position 16 plies {Pos 2} by Shredder 9

r2qn1k1/1p3p1p/8/3p1Pp1/p2Q4/3B4/PPP3PP/5R1K w - -

Engine: Shredder 9 UCI (64 MB)

by Stefan Meyer-Kahlen

18/41 7:48 +1.51 1.h4 Qf6 2.Qxf6 Nxf6 3.hxg5 Ne4

4.Re1 a3 5.Bxe4 dxe4 6.bxa3 Rxa3

7.Rxe4 Rxa2 8.c4 (100.830.353) 215

19/45 11:55 +1.55 1.h4 Qf6 2.Qxf6 Nxf6 3.hxg5 Ne4

4.Bxe4 dxe4 5.Re1 a3 6.bxa3 Ra4

7.Re3 Kg7 8.Rb3 Rc4 9.Rxb7 Rxc2

10.Rb3 (161.247.239) 225

20/44 18:41 +1.48 1.h4 Qf6 2.Qxf6 Nxf6 3.hxg5 Ne4

4.Bxe4 dxe4 5.Re1 a3 6.bxa3 Rxa3

7.Rxe4 Rxa2 8.Rc4 Kg7 9.Rc7 b5 (260.885.220) 232

20/47 21:31 +1.49++ 1.f6 (300.864.002) 232

20/47 29:20 +1.80 1.f6 a3 2.bxa3 Qd6 3.Rf5 h6 4.h4 Kf8

5.Rxd5 Qxf6 6.Qb4+ Qe7 7.Rd7 Qxb4

8.axb4 (415.004.587) 235

21/52 37:31 +1.73 1.f6 a3 2.bxa3 Qd6 3.Rf5 h6 4.h4 Kf8

5.Rxd5 Qxf6 6.Qb4+ Kg8 7.Rf5 Qc6

8.hxg5 Ra4 9.Qe7 (540.217.739) 239

22/50 51:10 +1.98++ 1.f6 a3 (747.019.445) 243

22/54 59:42 +1.98 1.f6 a3 2.bxa3 Qd6 3.Rf5 h6 4.h4 Kf8

5.Rxd5 Qxf6 (879.773.109) 245

23/58 160:14 +1.86 1.f6 Qd6 2.Rf5 h6 3.h4 Kf8 4.hxg5 hxg5

5.a3 Rd8 6.Bb5 Qg3 7.Bxa4 Nc7 8.Qe5 Qxe5

9.Rxe5 b5 10.Bb3 Ne8 11.Bxd5 (2.424.254.711) 252

24/57 216:37 +1.89 1.f6 Qd6 2.Rf5 h6 3.h4 Kf8 4.hxg5 hxg5

5.a3 Rd8 6.Bb5 Qe6 7.Re5 Qd6 8.Bxa4 Nxf6

9.Rxg5 (3.293.161.006) 253

Regards, Eelco