can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

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Uri Blass
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can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by Uri Blass » Tue Mar 30, 2010 9:22 am

I wonder what is your opinion:

1)Is it correct that white objectively has a winning position after these 2 mistakes by black

2)Can chess program see a winning score based on deep search(the important thing is not a big score for white but seeing significant increase in score)?

3)Does white always win in comp-comp games at long time control between top programs(Naum4.2 Stockfish1.6.3,Rybka3,Firebird1.2)?

4)What is the best plan for white?

Is it Nc3 and Nf3 or maybe it should include at least one of c4 and f4 that fide master suggested in discussion in the following thread

http://chesstempo.com/chess-forum/gener ... 999.0.html

Some analysis by Rybka3 does not show a significant increase in score but of course more time is needed and if somebody with good hardware can give chess programs 24 hours to analyze then it may be interesting.

spinnakr2001 - signofjonas, Yahoo! Chess Game 2010
[D]rnbqkbnr/1pppppp1/7p/p7/3PP3/8/PPP2PPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq a6 0 1

Analysis by Rybka 3 1-cpu 32-bit :

3.Nb1-c3
² (0.48) Depth: 2 00:00:00
3.Nb1-c3
² (0.37) Depth: 3 00:00:00
3.Nb1-c3
² (0.37) Depth: 4 00:00:00
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6
² (0.42) Depth: 5 00:00:00
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3
² (0.46) Depth: 6 00:00:00 3kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 Ng8-f6
² (0.48) Depth: 7 00:00:00 4kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 Ng8-f6 5.Bf1-d3
² (0.46) Depth: 8 00:00:00 9kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 Ng8-f6 5.Bf1-d3 g7-g5
² (0.57) Depth: 9 00:00:01 20kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.Bf1-c4 g5-g4 6.Nf3-h4
² (0.50) Depth: 10 00:00:01 38kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.Bf1-c4 g5-g4 6.Nf3-h4 Ng8-f6
² (0.55) Depth: 11 00:00:03 76kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.Bf1-c4 g5-g4 6.Nf3-h4 Nb8-c6 7.Bc1-e3 h6-h5
² (0.57) Depth: 12 00:00:07 162kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-e2 c7-c6 7.0-0 Ng8-f6 8.e4-e5
² (0.61) Depth: 13 00:00:14 307kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-e2 c7-c6 7.0-0 Ng8-f6 8.e4-e5
² (0.61) Depth: 14 00:00:25 544kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-e2 c7-c6 7.0-0 Ng8-f6 8.e4-e5 Nf6-d5
² (0.60) Depth: 15 00:00:50 1114kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-e2 c7-c6 7.0-0 Ng8-f6 8.e4-e5 Nf6-d5 9.e5xd6 Qd8xd6 10.Nc3-e4
² (0.61) Depth: 16 00:02:03 2625kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-e2 c7-c6 7.0-0 Ng8-f6 8.e4-e5 Nf6-d5 9.e5xd6 Qd8xd6 10.Nc3-e4 Qd6-g6
² (0.61) Depth: 17 00:03:42 4831kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-d3 Ng8-f6 7.0-0 Nb8-c6 8.Rf1-e1 0-0 9.a2-a3 e7-e6 10.Bc1-e3
² (0.59) Depth: 18 00:08:49 11716kN
3.Nb1-c3 d7-d6 4.Ng1-f3 g7-g5 5.h2-h3 Bf8-g7 6.Bf1-c4 Nb8-d7 7.0-0 e7-e6 8.Bc1-e3 Ng8-e7 9.Bc4-d3 c7-c6 10.Qd1-d2 0-0
² (0.61) Depth: 19 00:23:37 31017kN

(, 30.03.2010)

muxecoid
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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by muxecoid » Tue Mar 30, 2010 10:34 am

White needs 10 more turns to develop and 10 more turns to start kingside attack.
My guess is that you need at least 40 ply depth to see +1.0 score.

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Brunetti
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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by Brunetti » Tue Mar 30, 2010 10:40 am

Uri Blass wrote:1)Is it correct that white objectively has a winning position after these 2 mistakes by black
No. And I wouldn't call them mistakes. Weak or bad moves sounds better. This position is not won for White, although he stands clearly better.
Uri Blass wrote:2)Can chess program see a winning score based on deep search(the important thing is not a big score for white but seeing significant increase in score)?
What do you mean with winning score? Engines see a good score for White due to center control, mobility and weakened kingside and queenside, but there aren't tactical shots, or other important factors, that could raise too much the evaluation.
Uri Blass wrote:3)Does white always win in comp-comp games at long time control between top programs(Naum4.2 Stockfish1.6.3,Rybka3,Firebird1.2)?
Since White's advantage here could be around say +0.75, we can estimate something like 70-75% score in a series of games.
Uri Blass wrote:4)What is the best plan for white?
Is it Nc3 and Nf3 or maybe it should include at least one of c4 and f4 that fide master suggested in discussion in the following thread
It depends on player's style, and how Black continues. I would play Nf3 while keeping the option to play c4 later. There are a lot of possibilities: there's not an immediate and direct win, so you should proceed normally, trying to increase the advantage and to cope with opponent replies.

Alex

Uri Blass
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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by Uri Blass » Tue Mar 30, 2010 11:34 am

Every chess position is drawn or win for white or win for black.

If the position is not drawn then it is clear that in this case that it is win for white so the questions are basically:

1)Is the relevant position drawn or win for white?
2)In case that it is a win for white can computer chess programs see a big score after deep search(I know that there is no immediate win and this is the reason that I asked about deep search and not about searching for few minutes)

People with good hardware who are willing to give Rybka or other programs many days to analyze can give analysis so we can learn what computers can see with a deep search and I am sure that there are positions when computers can see a big jump in score after many hours when there is no immediate win from human point of view.

Uri

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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by BBauer » Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:45 pm

You expect way too much from a chess engine.
Today's engines have no idea in many positions.
Even the best engines need a book to guide them in the opening.
Here is an example which seams to be difficult for some engines taken from the middle game:
[D]r1b3k1/ppppn1pp/4n1q1/8/5P2/2N1B3/PPP3QP/3R1RK1 w - -
kind regards
Bernhard

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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by Brunetti » Tue Mar 30, 2010 1:08 pm

Uri Blass wrote:Every chess position is drawn or win for white or win for black.
Sure, but we don't have 32-man tablebases so we know the exact result for just a very small fraction of all possible positions :)
If the position is not drawn then it is clear that in this case that it is win for white so the questions are basically:

1)Is the relevant position drawn or win for white?
In my opinion the position is still drawn, but a) it's not possible to prove that, unless you have the impossible-to-have tablebase, and b) it's easier to play with White, i.e. Black has more ways to play here or there a move that is not sufficient to keep the position drawn. In other words, White has an advantage. Since we can't know, with such a quantity of pieces, if a position is won or drawn, we've introduced the terms advantage, stands better, and so on.
People with good hardware who are willing to give Rybka or other programs many days to analyze can give analysis so we can learn what computers can see with a deep search and I am sure that there are positions when computers can see a big jump in score after many hours when there is no immediate win from human point of view.
Well, here there's not a tactical shot or other tactical factors that can change the evaluation at some depth. Unless you can analyze 50 plies deep (as Michael noted) the engine isn't of any help, in this kind of positions.

Alex

muxecoid
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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by muxecoid » Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:15 pm

I analyzed to depth 28 with "other engine" and by looking at the principal variations I found that a5 and h6 are not completely wasted. At some point black plays a4 or b5 or g5 to his advantage. For example if white castles long black starts the attack with c6, b5. b4.

If you want a really awkward opening ro analyze you should try:
1. e4 Nf6 2. d4 Ng8
Or for black win:
1. f3 e5 2. Kf2 d5

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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by Milos » Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:30 pm

muxecoid wrote:If you want a really awkward opening ro analyze you should try:
1. e4 Nf6 2. d4 Ng8
It's equivalent to three moves handicap. The elo difference for this should be know (at least Larry K. should know it :)).

P. Villanueva
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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by P. Villanueva » Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:23 pm

Stockfish shows a score bigger than +1 inmediately.

Code: Select all

FEN: rnbqkbnr/1pppppp1/7p/p7/3PP3/8/PPP2PPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq a6 0 1 

Stockfish-16-ja:
   1	00:00	          46	173	+1,61	Nb1c3
   2	00:00	          76	286	+0,92	Nb1c3 Ng8f6
   3	00:00	         291	1.098	+1,33	Nb1c3 Ng8f6 Ng1f3
   4	00:00	       1.080	3.857	+1,29	Nb1c3 e7e6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6
   5	00:00	       2.042	7.292	+1,41	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 d4d5 Nc6b4 Ng1f3
   6	00:00	       4.404	14.878	+1,21	Nb1c3 d7d6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6 e4e5 d6xe5 Nf3xe5
   7	00:00	      14.117	45.246	+1,61	Nb1c3 c7c6 Ng1f3 b7b5 e4e5 d7d5 Bf1d3
   8	00:00	      44.173	123.388	+1,45	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 d4d5 Nc6e5 Bc1e3 Ne5g6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6
   9	00:00	     135.604	289.752	+1,73	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 d7d5 OO d5xe4 Bd3xe4 Ng8f6
  10	00:00	     173.852	328.022	+1,77	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 Nc6b4 OO Nb4xd3 c2xd3 Ng8f6 Nf3e5 d7d5
  11	00:00	     372.019	486.935	+1,49	Nb1c3 g7g5 Bf1d3 Nb8c6 Ng1e2 Ng8f6 OO d7d5 Bc1e3 d5xe4 Nc3xe4 Bf8g7
  12	00:01	     729.720	615.797	+1,73	Nb1c3 g7g5 Bf1c4 c7c6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6 h2h4 d7d5 e4xd5 g5g4 Nf3e5 Nf6xd5 Ne5xg4
  13	00:02	   1.507.476	710.738	+1,61	Nb1c3 d7d6 Ng1f3 g7g5 h2h3 Ng8f6 Bf1d3 Nb8c6 OO Bf8g7 e4e5 d6xe5 d4xe5
  14	00:04	   3.305.528	784.788	+1,53	Nb1c3 e7e6 Bf1d3 Ng8f6 e4e5 Nf6d5 Nc3xd5 e6xd5 Ng1f3 d7d6 OO Nb8c6 c2c3 d6xe5 d4xe5 Bf8c5 Bc1f4
  14	00:05	   4.093.475	802.484	+1,61	Ng1f3 Ng8f6 Bf1d3 d7d5 e4xd5 Nf6xd5 OO Bc8g4 c2c4 Nd5b4 Bd3e4 Nb8c6 Bc1e3 f7f5 Be4xc6+ Nb4xc6
  15-	00:13	  11.178.373	837.143	+1,41	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 Nb8c6 OO Ng8f6 Nb1c3 d7d6 Bc1f4 Bf8e7 a2a3 OO d4d5 e6xd5 e4xd5 Nc6e5 Nf3xe5 d6xe5 Bf4xe5 Bc8g4
  16	00:23	  19.919.590	841.198	+1,37	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 d7d5 e4xd5 e6xd5 OO Ng8f6 Rf1e1+ Bf8e7 Nb1c3 OO Bc1f4 g7g5 Bf4g3 Bc8e6 Nf3e5 Nb8c6 Ne5xc6 b7xc6
  17	00:40	  33.980.221	842.972	+1,37	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 d7d5 e4xd5 e6xd5 OO Ng8f6 Rf1e1+ Bf8e7 Nb1c3 OO Bc1f4 g7g5 Bf4g3 c7c5 d4xc5 Be7xc5 h2h4 g5g4 Nc3a4 Nb8a6 Na4xc5 Na6xc5
  18	01:34	  79.849.881	848.293	+1,41	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1b5 Ng8f6 e4e5 Nf6e4 OO Nb8c6 c2c3 Bf8e7 Nb1d2 Ne4g5 Nd2c4 Ng5xf3+ Qd1xf3 OO Rf1e1 d7d5 e5xd6/ep c7xd6 Bb5xc6 b7xc6 Qf3xc6
  19	02:29	 127.390.880	849.839	+1,37	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1b5 Ng8f6 e4e5 Nf6e4 OO Nb8c6 c2c3 Bf8e7 Nb1d2 Ne4g5 Nd2c4 OO Bc1f4 Ng5xf3+ Qd1xf3 Be7g5 Bf4xg5 Qd8xg5 Bb5xc6 b7xc6
  20-	06:02	 307.548.431	848.381	+1,17	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1e2 d7d5 e4e5 c7c5 c2c3 Nb8c6 OO Ng8e7
  20	11:25	 573.956.336	837.710	+1,37	Bf1d3 e7e6 Ng1f3 Nb8c6 OO d7d6 Nb1c3 Ng8f6 e4e5 d6xe5 d4xe5 Nf6d5 Nc3b5 Bf8c5 c2c3 Bc8d7 Qd1e2 Nc6e7 Qe2c2 Bd7xb5 Bd3xb5+ Ne7c6


Uri Blass
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Re: can chess program see win for white after e4 h6 d4 a5?

Post by Uri Blass » Tue Mar 30, 2010 4:05 pm

P. Villanueva wrote:Stockfish shows a score bigger than +1 inmediately.

Code: Select all

FEN: rnbqkbnr/1pppppp1/7p/p7/3PP3/8/PPP2PPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq a6 0 1 

Stockfish-16-ja:
   1	00:00	          46	173	+1,61	Nb1c3
   2	00:00	          76	286	+0,92	Nb1c3 Ng8f6
   3	00:00	         291	1.098	+1,33	Nb1c3 Ng8f6 Ng1f3
   4	00:00	       1.080	3.857	+1,29	Nb1c3 e7e6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6
   5	00:00	       2.042	7.292	+1,41	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 d4d5 Nc6b4 Ng1f3
   6	00:00	       4.404	14.878	+1,21	Nb1c3 d7d6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6 e4e5 d6xe5 Nf3xe5
   7	00:00	      14.117	45.246	+1,61	Nb1c3 c7c6 Ng1f3 b7b5 e4e5 d7d5 Bf1d3
   8	00:00	      44.173	123.388	+1,45	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 d4d5 Nc6e5 Bc1e3 Ne5g6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6
   9	00:00	     135.604	289.752	+1,73	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 d7d5 OO d5xe4 Bd3xe4 Ng8f6
  10	00:00	     173.852	328.022	+1,77	Nb1c3 Nb8c6 Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 Nc6b4 OO Nb4xd3 c2xd3 Ng8f6 Nf3e5 d7d5
  11	00:00	     372.019	486.935	+1,49	Nb1c3 g7g5 Bf1d3 Nb8c6 Ng1e2 Ng8f6 OO d7d5 Bc1e3 d5xe4 Nc3xe4 Bf8g7
  12	00:01	     729.720	615.797	+1,73	Nb1c3 g7g5 Bf1c4 c7c6 Ng1f3 Ng8f6 h2h4 d7d5 e4xd5 g5g4 Nf3e5 Nf6xd5 Ne5xg4
  13	00:02	   1.507.476	710.738	+1,61	Nb1c3 d7d6 Ng1f3 g7g5 h2h3 Ng8f6 Bf1d3 Nb8c6 OO Bf8g7 e4e5 d6xe5 d4xe5
  14	00:04	   3.305.528	784.788	+1,53	Nb1c3 e7e6 Bf1d3 Ng8f6 e4e5 Nf6d5 Nc3xd5 e6xd5 Ng1f3 d7d6 OO Nb8c6 c2c3 d6xe5 d4xe5 Bf8c5 Bc1f4
  14	00:05	   4.093.475	802.484	+1,61	Ng1f3 Ng8f6 Bf1d3 d7d5 e4xd5 Nf6xd5 OO Bc8g4 c2c4 Nd5b4 Bd3e4 Nb8c6 Bc1e3 f7f5 Be4xc6+ Nb4xc6
  15-	00:13	  11.178.373	837.143	+1,41	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 Nb8c6 OO Ng8f6 Nb1c3 d7d6 Bc1f4 Bf8e7 a2a3 OO d4d5 e6xd5 e4xd5 Nc6e5 Nf3xe5 d6xe5 Bf4xe5 Bc8g4
  16	00:23	  19.919.590	841.198	+1,37	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 d7d5 e4xd5 e6xd5 OO Ng8f6 Rf1e1+ Bf8e7 Nb1c3 OO Bc1f4 g7g5 Bf4g3 Bc8e6 Nf3e5 Nb8c6 Ne5xc6 b7xc6
  17	00:40	  33.980.221	842.972	+1,37	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1d3 d7d5 e4xd5 e6xd5 OO Ng8f6 Rf1e1+ Bf8e7 Nb1c3 OO Bc1f4 g7g5 Bf4g3 c7c5 d4xc5 Be7xc5 h2h4 g5g4 Nc3a4 Nb8a6 Na4xc5 Na6xc5
  18	01:34	  79.849.881	848.293	+1,41	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1b5 Ng8f6 e4e5 Nf6e4 OO Nb8c6 c2c3 Bf8e7 Nb1d2 Ne4g5 Nd2c4 Ng5xf3+ Qd1xf3 OO Rf1e1 d7d5 e5xd6/ep c7xd6 Bb5xc6 b7xc6 Qf3xc6
  19	02:29	 127.390.880	849.839	+1,37	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1b5 Ng8f6 e4e5 Nf6e4 OO Nb8c6 c2c3 Bf8e7 Nb1d2 Ne4g5 Nd2c4 OO Bc1f4 Ng5xf3+ Qd1xf3 Be7g5 Bf4xg5 Qd8xg5 Bb5xc6 b7xc6
  20-	06:02	 307.548.431	848.381	+1,17	Ng1f3 e7e6 Bf1e2 d7d5 e4e5 c7c5 c2c3 Nb8c6 OO Ng8e7
  20	11:25	 573.956.336	837.710	+1,37	Bf1d3 e7e6 Ng1f3 Nb8c6 OO d7d6 Nb1c3 Ng8f6 e4e5 d6xe5 d4xe5 Nf6d5 Nc3b5 Bf8c5 c2c3 Bc8d7 Qd1e2 Nc6e7 Qe2c2 Bd7xb5 Bd3xb5+ Ne7c6

The absolute score is unimportant.
It is more interesting if programs can see a significant score increase for white more than 0.5 pawn relative to the score after 1 seconds.

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