Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

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muxecoid
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Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by muxecoid » Sat Oct 15, 2011 10:59 am

9000 is a popular magic number so I tried to estimate how long it will take to have a computer playing at that strength.

400 ELO difference means higher rated player always beats lower rated, 9000 strength requires 20 such steps.

Computing power nearly doubles every two years and double performance gives around 70 ELO. If we assume that the performance increase will slow down we can assume 20 ELO per year due to better hardware.

Improvements in software give up to 100 ELO per year, depending on engine. Let's take rather optimistic guess and say we get 50 ELO per year due to better software.

Currently best engine on best software plays at about 3400 strength. It means that in (9000-3400)/70=80 years. It means our grandchildren may see chess play rated over 9000.

gerold
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by gerold » Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:01 pm

muxecoid wrote:9000 is a popular magic number so I tried to estimate how long it will take to have a computer playing at that strength.

400 ELO difference means higher rated player always beats lower rated, 9000 strength requires 20 such steps.

Computing power nearly doubles every two years and double performance gives around 70 ELO. If we assume that the performance increase will slow down we can assume 20 ELO per year due to better hardware.

Improvements in software give up to 100 ELO per year, depending on engine. Let's take rather optimistic guess and say we get 50 ELO per year due to better software.

Currently best engine on best software plays at about 3400 strength. It means that in (9000-3400)/70=80 years. It means our grandchildren may see chess play rated over 9000.
In the past year Rybka 4 to Houdini 1.5 increase of approx. 40 elo.

ethanara
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by ethanara » Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:26 pm

maybe i will see this, when im 93 years :shock:

gerold
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by gerold » Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:31 pm

ethanara wrote:maybe i will see this, when im 93 years :shock:
In the past 5 years the elo rating has been quite fluid. Increasing a bit more than the previous 5 years. You may not have to wait that long.

Are you 3 years of age now. :) .

ethanara
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by ethanara » Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:35 pm

no
93-80 = 13
Im the youngest in this forum i think :D

Terry McCracken
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by Terry McCracken » Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:40 pm

muxecoid wrote:9000 is a popular magic number so I tried to estimate how long it will take to have a computer playing at that strength.

400 ELO difference means higher rated player always beats lower rated, 9000 strength requires 20 such steps.

Computing power nearly doubles every two years and double performance gives around 70 ELO. If we assume that the performance increase will slow down we can assume 20 ELO per year due to better hardware.

Improvements in software give up to 100 ELO per year, depending on engine. Let's take rather optimistic guess and say we get 50 ELO per year due to better software.

Currently best engine on best software plays at about 3400 strength. It means that in (9000-3400)/70=80 years. It means our grandchildren may see chess play rated over 9000.
Where do you get a meaningless number like 9000? HAL 9000? The way you are going about it is wrong.
Perfect chess has a limit. It would be well under a 4000 elo. Machines don't play at 3400 today that's not a scientific measurement.
Perfect chess might be around 3400 elo hypothetically. Programs are beginning to max out on tactics that would exceed 3000 elo but they're weaker at position and incapable of true plans. Perfect chess may be impossible but near perfect chess if work continues might be seen late this century.
Terry McCracken

UncombedCoconut
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by UncombedCoconut » Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:01 pm

Terry McCracken wrote:Where do you get a meaningless number like 9000? HAL 9000? The way you are going about it is wrong.
I think it's a reference to this clip, dude.
Last edited by UncombedCoconut on Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Terry McCracken
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Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:16 am
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by Terry McCracken » Sat Oct 15, 2011 2:05 pm

UncombedCoconut wrote:
Terry McCracken wrote:Where do you get a meaningless number like 9000? HAL 9000? The way you are going about it is wrong.
I think it's a reference to this clip dude.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Terry McCracken

Father
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by Father » Sat Oct 15, 2011 3:48 pm

:shock: and me 131 years oldz, from the "Evo", whrere there is not a clock, and whee the time do not exist, but where there is a begining and an after, but "not time, aand whre chess is obsolete
I am thinking chess is in a coin.Human beings for ever playing in one face.Now I am playing in the other face:"Antichess". Computers are as a fortres where owner forgot to close a little door behind. You must enter across this door.Forget the front.

Robert Flesher
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Re: Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?

Post by Robert Flesher » Sat Oct 15, 2011 4:47 pm

Terry McCracken wrote:
muxecoid wrote:9000 is a popular magic number so I tried to estimate how long it will take to have a computer playing at that strength.

400 ELO difference means higher rated player always beats lower rated, 9000 strength requires 20 such steps.

Computing power nearly doubles every two years and double performance gives around 70 ELO. If we assume that the performance increase will slow down we can assume 20 ELO per year due to better hardware.

Improvements in software give up to 100 ELO per year, depending on engine. Let's take rather optimistic guess and say we get 50 ELO per year due to better software.

Currently best engine on best software plays at about 3400 strength. It means that in (9000-3400)/70=80 years. It means our grandchildren may see chess play rated over 9000.
Where do you get a meaningless number like 9000? HAL 9000? The way you are going about it is wrong.
Perfect chess has a limit. It would be well under a 4000 elo. Machines don't play at 3400 today that's not a scientific measurement.
Perfect chess might be around 3400 elo hypothetically. Programs are beginning to max out on tactics that would exceed 3000 elo but they're weaker at position and incapable of true plans. Perfect chess may be impossible but near perfect chess if work continues might be seen late this century.

Heya Terry, I agree with you regarding 9000 being an arbitray elo number. What I find very interesting are the questions, how is perfect chess defined? Is it define only mathematically? Will there eventually be tablebases that can included every conceivable move ? (not in our lifetime :lol: ). However, I believe it still remains clear that computers are no where near maxing out on tactics and eons away from perfect chess as they still suffer from the horizon effect. For sure they are much better than the best humans, but they still miss tactics.


Some points of interest, not sure of the accuracy. But they are amusing!


There are 318,979,564,000 possible ways to play the first four moves of chess.
In addition, America's Foundation for Chess found that there were
169,518,829,100,544,000,000,000,000,00… ways to play the first ten moves of chess.


The Shannon number, 10 to the 120 power, is an estimated lower bound on the game-tree complexity of chess.
As a comparison, the number of atoms in the observable Universe, to which it is often compared, is estimated to be between 4 × 10 to the 79 power and 10 to the 81 power.

There are 400 different positions after each player makes one move apiece.
There are 72,084 positions after two moves apiece.
There are 9+ million positions after three moves apiece.
There are 288+ billion different possible positions after four moves apiece.

The longest chess game theoretically possible is 5,949 moves.

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