Will our grandchildren see over 9000 strength play?
Posted: Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:59 pm
9000 is a popular magic number so I tried to estimate how long it will take to have a computer playing at that strength.
400 ELO difference means higher rated player always beats lower rated, 9000 strength requires 20 such steps.
Computing power nearly doubles every two years and double performance gives around 70 ELO. If we assume that the performance increase will slow down we can assume 20 ELO per year due to better hardware.
Improvements in software give up to 100 ELO per year, depending on engine. Let's take rather optimistic guess and say we get 50 ELO per year due to better software.
Currently best engine on best software plays at about 3400 strength. It means that in (9000-3400)/70=80 years. It means our grandchildren may see chess play rated over 9000.
400 ELO difference means higher rated player always beats lower rated, 9000 strength requires 20 such steps.
Computing power nearly doubles every two years and double performance gives around 70 ELO. If we assume that the performance increase will slow down we can assume 20 ELO per year due to better hardware.
Improvements in software give up to 100 ELO per year, depending on engine. Let's take rather optimistic guess and say we get 50 ELO per year due to better software.
Currently best engine on best software plays at about 3400 strength. It means that in (9000-3400)/70=80 years. It means our grandchildren may see chess play rated over 9000.