Carlsen Will DESTROY! Anand - World Chess Championship 2013.

[Anthony.R.Brown]

Things are Hotting up!...

http://www.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211 ... 30513.aspx



A.R.B

[kinderchocolate]

This is old news.... I've seen it....

[gerold]

Carlsen Will DESTROY! Anand - World Chess Championship 2013.

The First Nordic to Rise to World Champion!...


World Chess Championship 2013 - 6 to 26 November 2013 - Chennai - India.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Ches ... nship_2013

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/08/0 ... BQ20130808



Anthony.R.Brown

You an Astrologer or what ?
Carlsen will go back to tending his Reindeer herds after the Match and will give up chess !
Lots of people thought they could DESTROY Anand....... Kasparov, Kramnik, Topalov, Gelfand to name a few.
Well, they've all come and gone, but VISWANATHAN ANAND STILL RULEZZZ !!
JAI HIND !

Plus one.
There will be a lot of draw games. The match will go the full length.
Anand will win.

Best,
Gerold.

[S.Taylor]

Bring it on . Still a couple of months before the BBQ though.

Gelfand almost had the last WCC ... just one cocky slip-up in the classic he lost, but he generally outplayed V i thought.

That would have been quite a wonder, had he won. It's suprising that someone in Israel came so close.
I don't excpect the opportunity will ever come up again, neither for Gelfand or any Israeli. But It would be nice if it would.
If not for Carlsen, maybe there still would be hope. But we all wish Carlsen good health and success, and in that case, nothing going wrong, I expect he will win. Then Gelfand will certainly be a little old and so would Anand.
It will however be the first Norweigen!

[Anthony.R.Brown]

One thing for Sure!...Curry Won't be Served at the Winners Table!


A.R.B

[Anthony.R.Brown]

Things are Getting Hotter!

http://www.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211 ... 40413.aspx


A.R.B

[Adam Hair]

Obviously you are oblivious to the article dates.

[S.Taylor]

One thing for Sure!...Curry Won't be Served at the Winners Table!


A.R.B

So what will it be, salmon?

[shrapnel]

One thing for Sure!...Curry Won't be Served at the Winners Table!


A.R.B

Curry may or may not be served, but you will be eating CROW after the Match !
Bon appetite

[Ajedrecista]

Hello:

I took a look to this recent article and I decided to do my own simulations under the same assumptions (I did not take into account colour influences; a simulation is finished when there is a 6-6 result or one of the players has more than 6 points).

The first one:

Anand–Carlsen 2013

A 12 game match is far shorter than my recommended 26 games, so should we be worried that the weaker player might win by chance? Normally this would be a concern, but here there is one factor working in our favor: a relatively wide gap in the ratings. On the September rating list, Carlsen is rated 2862 and Anand is at 2775. According to the ratings formula, Carlsen is expected to score 0.62 points per game on average in the match. Since Anand is so much lower rated than Carlsen, it is unlikely that he can score an upset even in such a brief match.

So what will happen? Let’s run some simulations of the match. In their classical games, 20 out of 29 were drawn, so the 66% draw rate is still a reasonable assumption. Of the remaining nine games, Anand actually has the edge: six wins, three losses. However, several of his victories occurred before Carlsen reached his full strength; Carlsen won both of the last two decisive games. The ratings system forecasts that Carlsen will average 0.62 points per game. If we combine this with the 66% draw rate assumption, then in each game Carlsen has a 29% chance of winning and 5% chance of losing. Here are the results from running 40,000 simulations of the match:

Code: Select all

Probability that Carlsen wins 90.6%
Probability that Carlsen wins by a statistically significant margin (7-3 or better) 26.0%
Probability that Anand wins 3.0%
Probability of a drawn match 6.4%

I took a draw ratio of 66% and a win ratio (from Carlsen's POV) of ~ 29.625% (in other words, an Elo difference of 2862 - 2775 = 87 Elo). I got the following results after 100,000 simulations:

Code: Select all

100000/100000
Carlsen wins:  91068  Anand wins:   2756  Drawn matches:   6176

------------------------

The second one:

But before we conclude that Anand is doomed, there are a few caveats. Drawn matches are resolved by four rapid tiebreak games, and Anand is well known to be an excellent rapid player. More importantly, these simulations put complete confidence in the Elo rating system, though other statisticians have devised more accurate ways to calculate ratings. It would be interesting to hear their thoughts on the upcoming match. Thirdly, it seems difficult to accept that Anand has just a 5% chance of winning in each game, even though this is the only possible result if we assume that the draw rate is 66% and that the players perform as predicted by the rating system. With these assumptions, Anand has less than a 50% chance of winning a single game in the match!

Also, one observer pointed out that the draw rate of 66% probably isn’t valid for matches in which the rating gap is large. Since Anand and Carlsen were not always so far apart, their draw rate in their previous games might not be a good indicator of how often they will draw in the world championship. To get a better estimate of the draw rate and Anand’s winning chances, I searched my database looking for games that met these requirements:

•Both players 2700+
•Rating gap of 75 – 100 Elo
•Not a rapid or blitz game
In these games, the higher rated player wins 30.7% of the time, draws 60.7%, and loses 8.6%. Based on these results, Carlsen’s expected score would be 0.61 points per game, which is very similar to what his rating would forecast. However, the draw rate has declined and Anand’s winning chances have increased. Using these assumptions, I ran 40,000 simulations:

Code: Select all

Probability that Carlsen wins 85.7%
Probability that Carlsen wins by a statistically significant margin (7-3 or better) 24.8%
Probability that Anand wins 6.1%
Probability of a drawn match 8.3%

Anand’s chances have certainly improved, but he is still very much the underdog unless there is something badly wrong with the rating system. However, both players’ ratings have been very stable lately. Anand has been between 2770 and 2790 for more than a year, and Carlsen has seen even less volatility since January 2013 (min. rating: 2861, max rating 2872). So assuming that the ratings are accurate is not unreasonable.

I used the same probability values (30.7%, 60.7% and 8.6%) than Wilson. I got the following results after 100,000 simulations:

Code: Select all

100000/100000
Carlsen wins:  85542  Anand wins:   5979  Drawn matches:   8479

------------------------

The third one:

However, in their previous games Anand has a tendency to slightly outperform his rating when he is playing Carlsen. After comparing his average rating to his performance rating, it appears that Anand gains 33 points in strength when Carlsen is on the other side of the chessboard. This pattern is present in both their early games (pre-2010) and recent games (2010-2013). But it is not statistically significant, so it could be just luck. Nevertheless, there remains a possibility that the pattern is real, so how would it affect the forecast? I subtracted 33 points from the rating gap to form an adjusted rating gap. Now that the gap is not so large, it makes sense to return to the 66% draw rate. I plugged these assumptions into the silicon oracle:

Code: Select all

Probability that Carlsen wins 77.2%
Probability that Carlsen wins by a statistically significant margin (7-3 or better) 14.6%
Probability that Anand wins 10.3%
Probability of a drawn match 12.5%

My parameters for this assumption are the same as in the first case, except that now Elo difference = 87 - 33 = 54 Elo. I got the following results after 100,000 simulations:

Code: Select all

100000/100000
Carlsen wins:  75679  Anand wins:  11225  Drawn matches:  13096

------------------------

The last one:

The brevity of the match mitigates Anand’s disadvantage: in a 24 game match with a 66% draw rate, he loses in 98% of the match simulations and wins only 0.7% of the matches. But in a twelve game match, maybe he’ll just get lucky.

Getting back to 87 Elo difference and new stopping rules (12-12 result or a player with more than 12 points), this is what I got after 100,000 simulations:

Code: Select all

100000/100000
Carlsen wins:  98278  Anand wins:    584  Drawn matches:   1138

I think that my results are not very different from Wilson's ones, but one thing is sure: I do not dare to give a forecast.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.