Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw
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Name Win Odds Stage 4
--------- ---------- ----------
Komodo 44.948 99.052
Houdini 43.799 99.201
Bouquet 6.348 89.544
Critter 2.011 72.319
Hiarcs 1.112 57.998
Stockfish 0.807 61.694
Gull 0.575 53.054
Rybka 0.304 48.722
Naum 0.096 18.296
Junior 0.000 0.119
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Name Win Odds Stage 4
--------- ---------- ----------
Komodo 45.018 99.068
Houdini 43.729 99.213
Bouquet 6.383 89.547
Critter 1.993 72.201
Hiarcs 1.118 58.062
Stockfish 0.797 61.655
Gull 0.575 53.104
Rybka 0.291 48.654
Naum 0.094 18.377
Junior 0.000 0.119
Maybe would be somewhat better to compress a bit the ratings. The draw rate in this stage is now at 67%, you assumed a peak of 60% for strongest equal opponents. Just a gut feeling, but I think 89% for K and H to win the stage is a bit too high.Don wrote:After round 52 where Komodo draws against Gull:
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Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 45.018 99.068 Houdini 43.729 99.213 Bouquet 6.383 89.547 Critter 1.993 72.201 Hiarcs 1.118 58.062 Stockfish 0.797 61.655 Gull 0.575 53.104 Rybka 0.291 48.654 Naum 0.094 18.377 Junior 0.000 0.119
I already compress the ratings by 80% - but the draw rate peaks at 60% which may be too low. But with such a horribly low sample of games it's difficult to assume anything.Laskos wrote:Maybe would be somewhat better to compress a bit the ratings. The draw rate in this stage is now at 67%, you assumed a peak of 60% for strongest equal opponents. Just a gut feeling, but I think 89% for K and H to win the stage is a bit too high.Don wrote:After round 52 where Komodo draws against Gull:
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Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 45.018 99.068 Houdini 43.729 99.213 Bouquet 6.383 89.547 Critter 1.993 72.201 Hiarcs 1.118 58.062 Stockfish 0.797 61.655 Gull 0.575 53.104 Rybka 0.291 48.654 Naum 0.094 18.377 Junior 0.000 0.119
38/48 ~ 79% draw rate in the Superfinal (season 1). Maybe you should adjust a bit the draw rate. And the rating compression maybe to 70%?Don wrote:I already compress the ratings by 80% - but the draw rate peaks at 60% which may be too low. But with such a horribly low sample of games it's difficult to assume anything.Laskos wrote:Maybe would be somewhat better to compress a bit the ratings. The draw rate in this stage is now at 67%, you assumed a peak of 60% for strongest equal opponents. Just a gut feeling, but I think 89% for K and H to win the stage is a bit too high.Don wrote:After round 52 where Komodo draws against Gull:
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Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 45.018 99.068 Houdini 43.729 99.213 Bouquet 6.383 89.547 Critter 1.993 72.201 Hiarcs 1.118 58.062 Stockfish 0.797 61.655 Gull 0.575 53.104 Rybka 0.291 48.654 Naum 0.094 18.377 Junior 0.000 0.119
Maybe we should check the draw rate in last seasons late stages, say the last 2 stages. What was the draw rate in the super-final?
I will check later.
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Name Win Odds Stage 4
--------- ---------- ----------
Komodo 31.747 93.098
Houdini 26.162 91.380
Stockfish 10.343 78.600
Bouquet 9.574 77.290
Critter 8.135 73.859
Rybka 6.489 69.499
Gull 6.442 69.546
Hiarcs 0.535 21.638
Naum 0.533 21.487
Junior 0.040 3.602
At this point, even Junior has a slight chance to qualify, but it's not much. Naum and Hiarcs definitely have their work cut out for them.Don wrote:Simulation results after game 54, the Bouquet vs Houdini draw:
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Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 31.747 93.098 Houdini 26.162 91.380 Stockfish 10.343 78.600 Bouquet 9.574 77.290 Critter 8.135 73.859 Rybka 6.489 69.499 Gull 6.442 69.546 Hiarcs 0.535 21.638 Naum 0.533 21.487 Junior 0.040 3.602
Very interesting, keep us updated.Don wrote:At this point, even Junior has a slight chance to qualify, but it's not much. Naum and Hiarcs definitely have their work cut out for them.Don wrote:Simulation results after game 54, the Bouquet vs Houdini draw:
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Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 31.747 93.098 Houdini 26.162 91.380 Stockfish 10.343 78.600 Bouquet 9.574 77.290 Critter 8.135 73.859 Rybka 6.489 69.499 Gull 6.442 69.546 Hiarcs 0.535 21.638 Naum 0.533 21.487 Junior 0.040 3.602
I asked Adam to give me a new draw model - which I will incorporate if/when he does.Laskos wrote:Very interesting, keep us updated.Don wrote:At this point, even Junior has a slight chance to qualify, but it's not much. Naum and Hiarcs definitely have their work cut out for them.Don wrote:Simulation results after game 54, the Bouquet vs Houdini draw:
Code: Select all
Name Win Odds Stage 4 --------- ---------- ---------- Komodo 31.747 93.098 Houdini 26.162 91.380 Stockfish 10.343 78.600 Bouquet 9.574 77.290 Critter 8.135 73.859 Rybka 6.489 69.499 Gull 6.442 69.546 Hiarcs 0.535 21.638 Naum 0.533 21.487 Junior 0.040 3.602