Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)

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Jesse Gersenson
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Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)

Post by Jesse Gersenson » Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:49 am

Guess the results of the TCEC superfinal and win a copy of Komodo 9.3.

http://komodochess.com/store/tcec-contest.php

(This contest has no affiliation with the TCEC or it's organizers.)

shrapnel
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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)

Post by shrapnel » Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:53 am

What of the people who already have 1 Year subscriptions and will get it anyway ? Will you extend it to 2 years ? :)
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Dr.Wael Deeb
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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)

Post by Dr.Wael Deeb » Wed Nov 11, 2015 5:59 pm

shrapnel wrote:What of the people who already have 1 Year subscriptions and will get it anyway ? Will you extend it to 2 years ? :)
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
_No one can hit as hard as life.But it ain’t about how hard you can hit.It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.How much you can take and keep moving forward….

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Ajedrecista
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Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11th).

Post by Ajedrecista » Wed Nov 11, 2015 8:36 pm

Hello Jesse:

Once the deadline was reached, I write my particular forecast after 24 games are played (+2 =22 -0 for Komodo).

I assigned probabilities in the following way: from Komodo POV, if there are w wins, d draws and l loses, the probabilities of win, draw or lose in the next game are prob_X = (X + 1)/(w + d + l + 3), where X = {w, d, l}. I do not remember the name of this well-known kind of assignation of probabilities, so someone write the name, please. Here is the code:

Code: Select all

program TCEC_forecast

implicit none

integer,parameter :: simul = 10000000  ! 1e+7 simulations.
integer :: i, j, K, SF, d, n(0:200)

real(KIND=2) :: probK, probSF, PRN, t0, t1
real :: points_K(1:simul)

t0 = cpu_clock@()  ! Start.

do i = 1,simul
  
  K = 2; SF = 0; d = 22  ! The result after the first 24 games.
  
  do j = 25, 100
    
    probK = (K + 1d0)/(K + SF + d + 3d0)  ! +3 due to {win, draw, lose}.
    probSF = (SF + 1d0)/(K + SF+ d + 3d0)  ! +3 due to {win, draw, lose}.
    
    PRN = random@()  ! PRN: pseudo-random number.
    
    if &#40;PRN < probK&#41; then
      K = K + 1  ! Komodo win.
    else if &#40;PRN > &#40;1d0 - probSF&#41;) then
      SF = SF + 1  ! SF win.
    else
      d = d + 1  ! Draw.
    end if
    
  end do

  points_K&#40;i&#41; = K + 0.5*d

end do

n = 0

do i = 1, simul
  do j = 26, 178  ! Minimum of Komodo&#58; 13 points = 26 half points; maximum of Komodo&#58; 89 points = 178 half points.
    if &#40;j == 2.0*points_K&#40;i&#41;) then
      n&#40;j&#41; =n&#40;j&#41; + 1
      exit
    end if
  end do
end do

write&#40;*,'&#40;I8,A&#41;') simul, ' simulations.'
write&#40;*,*)
write&#40;*,'&#40;A&#41;') '   K - SF      Simulations'
write&#40;*,*)
do i = 26, 178
  write&#40;*,'&#40;F4.1,A,F4.1,A,I8,A,F6.2,A&#41;') 0.5*i, ' - ', 100.0 - 0.5*i, '       ', n&#40;i&#41;, '   (', 1d2*n&#40;i&#41;/simul, ' %)'
end do
write&#40;*,*)

t1 = cpu_clock@()  ! Finish.

write&#40;*,'&#40;A,F7.2,A&#41;') 'Elapsed time&#58; ',&#40;t1-t0&#41;/3d9, ' seconds.'  ! 3 GHz in my PC.

end program TCEC_forecast
After 1e+7 simulations:

Code: Select all

10000000 simulations.

   K - SF      Simulations

13.0 - 87.0              0   (  0.00 %)
13.5 - 86.5              0   (  0.00 %)
14.0 - 86.0              0   (  0.00 %)
14.5 - 85.5              0   (  0.00 %)
15.0 - 85.0              0   (  0.00 %)
15.5 - 84.5              0   (  0.00 %)
16.0 - 84.0              0   (  0.00 %)
16.5 - 83.5              0   (  0.00 %)
17.0 - 83.0              0   (  0.00 %)
17.5 - 82.5              0   (  0.00 %)
18.0 - 82.0              0   (  0.00 %)
18.5 - 81.5              0   (  0.00 %)
19.0 - 81.0              0   (  0.00 %)
19.5 - 80.5              0   (  0.00 %)
20.0 - 80.0              0   (  0.00 %)
20.5 - 79.5              0   (  0.00 %)
21.0 - 79.0              0   (  0.00 %)
21.5 - 78.5              0   (  0.00 %)
22.0 - 78.0              0   (  0.00 %)
22.5 - 77.5              0   (  0.00 %)
23.0 - 77.0              0   (  0.00 %)
23.5 - 76.5              0   (  0.00 %)
24.0 - 76.0              0   (  0.00 %)
24.5 - 75.5              0   (  0.00 %)
25.0 - 75.0              0   (  0.00 %)
25.5 - 74.5              0   (  0.00 %)
26.0 - 74.0              0   (  0.00 %)
26.5 - 73.5              0   (  0.00 %)
27.0 - 73.0              0   (  0.00 %)
27.5 - 72.5              0   (  0.00 %)
28.0 - 72.0              0   (  0.00 %)
28.5 - 71.5              0   (  0.00 %)
29.0 - 71.0              0   (  0.00 %)
29.5 - 70.5              0   (  0.00 %)
30.0 - 70.0              0   (  0.00 %)
30.5 - 69.5              0   (  0.00 %)
31.0 - 69.0              0   (  0.00 %)
31.5 - 68.5              0   (  0.00 %)
32.0 - 68.0              1   (  0.00 %)
32.5 - 67.5              1   (  0.00 %)
33.0 - 67.0              1   (  0.00 %)
33.5 - 66.5              0   (  0.00 %)
34.0 - 66.0              4   (  0.00 %)
34.5 - 65.5              4   (  0.00 %)
35.0 - 65.0              7   (  0.00 %)
35.5 - 64.5             13   (  0.00 %)
36.0 - 64.0             12   (  0.00 %)
36.5 - 63.5             19   (  0.00 %)
37.0 - 63.0             45   (  0.00 %)
37.5 - 62.5             49   (  0.00 %)
38.0 - 62.0            101   (  0.00 %)
38.5 - 61.5            120   (  0.00 %)
39.0 - 61.0            188   (  0.00 %)
39.5 - 60.5            295   (  0.00 %)
40.0 - 60.0            397   (  0.00 %)
40.5 - 59.5            586   (  0.01 %)
41.0 - 59.0            915   (  0.01 %)
41.5 - 58.5           1152   (  0.01 %)
42.0 - 58.0           1754   (  0.02 %)
42.5 - 57.5           2516   (  0.03 %)
43.0 - 57.0           3458   (  0.03 %)
43.5 - 56.5           4808   (  0.05 %)
44.0 - 56.0           6869   (  0.07 %)
44.5 - 55.5           9416   (  0.09 %)
45.0 - 55.0          13020   (  0.13 %)
45.5 - 54.5          17832   (  0.18 %)
46.0 - 54.0          24565   (  0.25 %)
46.5 - 53.5          33482   (  0.33 %)
47.0 - 53.0          45844   (  0.46 %)
47.5 - 52.5          61816   (  0.62 %)
48.0 - 52.0          83379   (  0.83 %)
48.5 - 51.5         113676   (  1.14 %)
49.0 - 51.0         151159   (  1.51 %)
49.5 - 50.5         201821   (  2.02 %)
50.0 - 50.0         269817   (  2.70 %)
50.5 - 49.5         356723   (  3.57 %)
51.0 - 49.0         471932   (  4.72 %)
51.5 - 48.5         577405   (  5.77 %)
52.0 - 48.0         655303   (  6.55 %)
52.5 - 47.5         699745   (  7.00 %)
53.0 - 47.0         713783   (  7.14 %)
53.5 - 46.5         699681   (  7.00 %)
54.0 - 46.0         665239   (  6.65 %)
54.5 - 45.5         615738   (  6.16 %)
55.0 - 45.0         557825   (  5.58 %)
55.5 - 44.5         494528   (  4.95 %)
56.0 - 44.0         432385   (  4.32 %)
56.5 - 43.5         371393   (  3.71 %)
57.0 - 43.0         315378   (  3.15 %)
57.5 - 42.5         264370   (  2.64 %)
58.0 - 42.0         219208   (  2.19 %)
58.5 - 41.5         179163   (  1.79 %)
59.0 - 41.0         145748   (  1.46 %)
59.5 - 40.5         116902   (  1.17 %)
60.0 - 40.0          92393   (  0.92 %)
60.5 - 39.5          72826   (  0.73 %)
61.0 - 39.0          56881   (  0.57 %)
61.5 - 38.5          44185   (  0.44 %)
62.0 - 38.0          33776   (  0.34 %)
62.5 - 37.5          25683   (  0.26 %)
63.0 - 37.0          19404   (  0.19 %)
63.5 - 36.5          14617   (  0.15 %)
64.0 - 36.0          10925   (  0.11 %)
64.5 - 35.5           7942   (  0.08 %)
65.0 - 35.0           5813   (  0.06 %)
65.5 - 34.5           4185   (  0.04 %)
66.0 - 34.0           2966   (  0.03 %)
66.5 - 33.5           2057   (  0.02 %)
67.0 - 33.0           1518   (  0.02 %)
67.5 - 32.5           1038   (  0.01 %)
68.0 - 32.0            721   (  0.01 %)
68.5 - 31.5            479   (  0.00 %)
69.0 - 31.0            348   (  0.00 %)
69.5 - 30.5            245   (  0.00 %)
70.0 - 30.0            155   (  0.00 %)
70.5 - 29.5             90   (  0.00 %)
71.0 - 29.0             60   (  0.00 %)
71.5 - 28.5             33   (  0.00 %)
72.0 - 28.0             34   (  0.00 %)
72.5 - 27.5              8   (  0.00 %)
73.0 - 27.0             10   (  0.00 %)
73.5 - 26.5              9   (  0.00 %)
74.0 - 26.0              2   (  0.00 %)
74.5 - 25.5              4   (  0.00 %)
75.0 - 25.0              1   (  0.00 %)
75.5 - 24.5              1   (  0.00 %)
76.0 - 24.0              0   (  0.00 %)
76.5 - 23.5              0   (  0.00 %)
77.0 - 23.0              0   (  0.00 %)
77.5 - 22.5              0   (  0.00 %)
78.0 - 22.0              0   (  0.00 %)
78.5 - 21.5              0   (  0.00 %)
79.0 - 21.0              0   (  0.00 %)
79.5 - 20.5              0   (  0.00 %)
80.0 - 20.0              0   (  0.00 %)
80.5 - 19.5              0   (  0.00 %)
81.0 - 19.0              0   (  0.00 %)
81.5 - 18.5              0   (  0.00 %)
82.0 - 18.0              0   (  0.00 %)
82.5 - 17.5              0   (  0.00 %)
83.0 - 17.0              0   (  0.00 %)
83.5 - 16.5              0   (  0.00 %)
84.0 - 16.0              0   (  0.00 %)
84.5 - 15.5              0   (  0.00 %)
85.0 - 15.0              0   (  0.00 %)
85.5 - 14.5              0   (  0.00 %)
86.0 - 14.0              0   (  0.00 %)
86.5 - 13.5              0   (  0.00 %)
87.0 - 13.0              0   (  0.00 %)
87.5 - 12.5              0   (  0.00 %)
88.0 - 12.0              0   (  0.00 %)
88.5 - 11.5              0   (  0.00 %)
89.0 - 11.0              0   (  0.00 %)

Elapsed time&#58;   93.49 seconds.
The mode of that discrete distribution is 53-47 in favour of Komodo, so this is my bet with no possible reward given the fact that I did not answer before the deadline.

Regards from Spain.

Ajedrecista.

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Laskos
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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)

Post by Laskos » Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:37 pm

Jesse Gersenson wrote:Guess the results of the TCEC superfinal and win a copy of Komodo 9.3.

http://komodochess.com/store/tcec-contest.php

(This contest has no affiliation with the TCEC or it's organizers.)
52:48 for Komodo, but it's post deadline.

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Marek Soszynski
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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11

Post by Marek Soszynski » Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:48 pm

I thought the competition asked for number of wins rather than points.
Marek Soszynski

Jesse Gersenson
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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11

Post by Jesse Gersenson » Wed Nov 11, 2015 10:40 pm

Yes, it asked for number of wins and number of losses. Each entry was given microsecond timestamps.

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Laskos
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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11

Post by Laskos » Wed Nov 11, 2015 10:52 pm

Jesse Gersenson wrote:Yes, it asked for number of wins and number of losses. Each entry was given microsecond timestamps.
OK, then let's say 10:6 wins:losses of Komodo. How does one calculate the deviation from the correct answer?

Giga microsecond post time-stamp prediction.

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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11

Post by MikeB » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:03 am

Marek Soszynski wrote:I thought the competition asked for number of wins rather than points.
+1000 it did - But you can compute the score from wins and losses a=everything else is draw.

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Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11

Post by Dann Corbit » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:07 am

MikeB wrote:
Marek Soszynski wrote:I thought the competition asked for number of wins rather than points.
+1000 it did - But you can compute the score from wins and losses a=everything else is draw.
But if you just gave a score, how would you differentiate between 50 wins and 50 losses and 100 draws, for instance?

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