Computer can do 3300 ELO and game in 3 hours
Jonathan Lee
What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
If Stockfish is playing on modern cellphone 1 in 100. If Stickfish is playing on TCEC hardware 1 in million.
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
If the GM plays the English opening Botvinnik variation as while and Stockfish allows white to play f5 then yes.
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
Time and Computer dosen't mater if you have a defined Elo.jplchess wrote:Computer can do 3300 ELO and game in 3 hours
Jonathan Lee
2800 to 3300, or 500 Elo difference, is a "winning" ratio of 5.32% according to ELo formula. That means that the 2800 get 5.5 Points out of 100 games. If that are 5 wins and one draw or 11 draws is uncertain. And if the result is higer or lower than 5.32% the difference was bigger or smaller than 500 Elo. Which means you can tell the rating after a game, not before.
Your problem is the 3300! Where do you get that number from? How do you know that SF8 has 3300? Whoever comes up with a rating of 3300 for SF8 made an eduacated guess - at best!
Ingo
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
It's very certain. Try and you'll see, at least 9 out of 10 times it will be 11 draws (or more correctly no wins for weaker engine).IWB wrote:2800 to 3300, or 500 Elo difference, is a "winning" ratio of 5.32% according to ELo formula. That means that the 2800 get 5.5 Points out of 100 games. If that are 5 wins and one draw or 11 draws is uncertain.
Plus 5.32% rate for weaker engine is not according to "Elo formula", but according to the model used. Different model different result.
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
different model, different result ... maybe, but I am sure he asked for this model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system and there 500 Elo difference is 5.32%!Milos wrote:It's very certain. Try and you'll see, at least 9 out of 10 times it will be 11 draws (or more correctly no wins for weaker engine).IWB wrote:2800 to 3300, or 500 Elo difference, is a "winning" ratio of 5.32% according to ELo formula. That means that the 2800 get 5.5 Points out of 100 games. If that are 5 wins and one draw or 11 draws is uncertain.
Plus 5.32% rate for weaker engine is not according to "Elo formula", but according to the model used. Different model different result.
9 out of 10 is 'very certain' for you ... thats funny
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
Even though you are quoting wiki, it seams you never actually read that page, otherwise you'd know this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_ratin ... cal_issuesIWB wrote:different model, different result ... maybe, but I am sure he asked for this model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system and there 500 Elo difference is 5.32%!
You could also try reading about tails of distribution of the model used and how accurate those are, but why bother, 500Elo = 5.32% is like written in stone, right?
I see, for you whatever you personally didn't try has 50:50 chance.9 out of 10 is 'very certain' for you ... thats funny
Chance of 5 wins for 500 Elo lower engine that you quoted is less than 1 in million. Well for you that is uncertain.
So you probably have 50% chance beating Carlsen since you haven't tried it, and outcome is uncertain, right?
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
Agreedh1a8 wrote:Odds are 0
"Without change, something sleeps inside us, and seldom awakens. The sleeper must awaken." (Dune - 1984)
Lonnie
Lonnie
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Re: What are the odds a 2800 GM can beat SF 8 in one game?
so, if the odds are one to a million, and I put 1 buck on a win in a 10-game match against SF, I will be a millionaire after the match.
certainly the easiest way to get rich...
certainly the easiest way to get rich...