LCZero Elo

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How high will LCZero go in Elo in the next 12 months.

Poll ended at Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:12 pm

2000 or less.
6
15%
Between 2001 and 3400.
26
67%
Over 3400
3
8%
No guess. I dont understand the project.
4
10%
 
Total votes: 39

Leo
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LCZero Elo

Post by Leo » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:12 pm

LCZero Elo poll.
Stockfish 190310 Elo rating 3539. AMD fan.

Werewolf
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by Werewolf » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:40 pm

I think it would be more interesting to speculate if it will go over 3000 Elo. That’s where it will bite in my opinion

pferd
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by pferd » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:45 pm

What are the comparables here? 3000 Elo corresponds to which engine on which rating list?

Dann Corbit
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by Dann Corbit » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:48 pm

You need a reference.
Compared to random moves, the Elo is already 4230.
Hence, I assume you mean CCRL Elo or CEGT Elo or something along those lines.

Elo itself is a meaningless number. It is only in relationship to a pool of opponents that it has meaning.

Against a pool of random movers, the Elo is 4230. That is all we know right now.
Taking ideas is not a vice, it is a virtue. We have another word for this. It is called learning.
But sharing ideas is an even greater virtue. We have another word for this. It is called teaching.

Leo
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by Leo » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:38 pm

Compared to the top three engines.
Stockfish 190310 Elo rating 3539. AMD fan.

Leo
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by Leo » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:40 pm

I want to play a random moving chess engine and take the results and make that my new Elo rating.
Stockfish 190310 Elo rating 3539. AMD fan.

Michel
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by Michel » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:49 pm

Dann Corbit wrote:You need a reference.
Compared to random moves, the Elo is already 4230.
This is probably not true. The method by which this number is obtained is statistically flawed. But since it is a proxy for the true elo difference this is acceptable.

Some people are maintaining their own rating lists.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
Ideas=science. Simplification=engineering.
Without ideas there is nothing to simplify.

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lucasart
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by lucasart » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:45 pm

For the moment, it's only ~1500 elo CCRL, and progress is starting to stall.

On the other hand, 12 months is a long time, and immense amount of resources are thrown at it. So perhaps 2000 is possible. But 3400, definitely not...
Theory and practice sometimes clash. And when that happens, theory loses. Every single time.

CheckersGuy
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by CheckersGuy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:58 pm

lucasart wrote:For the moment, it's only ~1500 elo CCRL, and progress is starting to stall.

On the other hand, 12 months is a long time, and immense amount of resources are thrown at it. So perhaps 2000 is possible. But 3400, definitely not...
Lc0 is beating TSCP now so I would say it's clearly above 1500

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lucasart
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Re: LCZero Elo

Post by lucasart » Fri Mar 30, 2018 12:31 am

CheckersGuy wrote:
lucasart wrote:For the moment, it's only ~1500 elo CCRL, and progress is starting to stall.

On the other hand, 12 months is a long time, and immense amount of resources are thrown at it. So perhaps 2000 is possible. But 3400, definitely not...
Lc0 is beating TSCP now so I would say it's clearly above 1500
No it doesnt.

See here:
http://talkchess.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=66945

It gets smashed by Zurichess rated 1800...

Even I can still beat LC0 (though I do lose more games than I win I must admit).
Theory and practice sometimes clash. And when that happens, theory loses. Every single time.

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