[d]2r5/1p2Q3/p1rp2p1/P1P1n1k1/4P3/1P5P/1B5P/6K1 b - - 2 40
Arasan could actually screw up here and only draw, unlikely, but possible
TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Division 3 decided. Ethereal and Arasan go through. Well done Ethereal programmer, that's a really nice speculative evaluator you programmed there, some of the main line scores were seriously impressive, almost neural network-like. And well done John Dart, well deserved!
Meanwhile, sim promotion predictions for Division 2 (based on some possibly dodgy elo stats)
Ethereal 89%
Gull 64%
Nirvana 35%
Xiphos 3%
Arasan 4%
Vajolet 2%
Texel 1%
ChainBrain 0%
Meanwhile, sim promotion predictions for Division 2 (based on some possibly dodgy elo stats)
Ethereal 89%
Gull 64%
Nirvana 35%
Xiphos 3%
Arasan 4%
Vajolet 2%
Texel 1%
ChainBrain 0%
Code: Select all
Division 3,
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3314 3300 1.000 1.000
Arasan 3146 3124 0.000 1.000
Pedone 3117 3092 0.000 0.000
DeusX 3129 3130 0.000 0.000
Nemorino 3093 3099 0.000 0.000
Hannibal 3120 3158 0.000 0.000
Bobcat 2978 3029 0.000 0.000
lc0 3132 3100 0.000 0.000
Division 2,
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3314 3314 0.650 0.890
Gull 3263 3263 0.236 0.644
Nirvana 3229 3229 0.100 0.359
Xiphos 3138 3138 0.005 0.033
Arasan 3146 3146 0.005 0.040
Vajolet 3128 3128 0.003 0.022
Texel 3111 3111 0.001 0.012
ChessBrainVB 2983 2983 0.000 0.000
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Are you sure it is decided?chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:26 pm Division 3 decided. Ethereal and Arasan go through. Well done Ethereal programmer, that's a really nice speculative evaluator you programmed there, some of the main line scores were seriously impressive, almost neural network-like. And well done John Dart, well deserved!
They can still decide to replay all the NN games before the thermal "issue". Or they can change tiebreak rules. Or they could give a wild card to Lc0.
Judging how they respect the rules and how tournament is run all those scenarios certainly have non-zero chance of happening .
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
FWIW here some data from CCRL plus notes and rough additional rating improvement expectationschrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:26 pm Division 3 decided. Ethereal and Arasan go through. Well done Ethereal programmer, that's a really nice speculative evaluator you programmed there, some of the main line scores were seriously impressive, almost neural network-like. And well done John Dart, well deserved!
Meanwhile, sim promotion predictions for Division 2 (based on some possibly dodgy elo stats)
Ethereal 89%
Gull 64%
Nirvana 35%
Xiphos 3%
Arasan 4%
Vajolet 2%
Texel 1%
ChainBrain 0%
Code: Select all
Division 2, Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two Ethereal 3314 3314 0.650 0.890 Gull 3263 3263 0.236 0.644 Nirvana 3229 3229 0.100 0.359 Xiphos 3138 3138 0.005 0.033 Arasan 3146 3146 0.005 0.040 Vajolet 3128 3128 0.003 0.022 Texel 3111 3111 0.001 0.012 ChessBrainVB 2983 2983 0.000 0.000
[my guess given as ++/+/(+)]for newer versions.
Code: Select all
#Name CCRL40/40 4CPU Version Improv.(Guess)
Ethereal 3295 10.55 ++
Nirvana 3187 2.4
Gull 3184 3.0
Xiphos 3181 0.3 ++
Texel 3145 1.07 +
ChessbrainVB 3128 3.68 (+)
ArasanX 3124 20.41 ++
Vajolet2 3101 2.5 +
*notes:
- Nirvana and Gull not under development anymore
- inofficial Gull 3.1 is below official 3.0 for given rating source
https://rwbc-chess.de
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Note that the majority voted for replaying all the NN games(I voted against it).Milos wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:14 pmAre you sure it is decided?chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:26 pm Division 3 decided. Ethereal and Arasan go through. Well done Ethereal programmer, that's a really nice speculative evaluator you programmed there, some of the main line scores were seriously impressive, almost neural network-like. And well done John Dart, well deserved!
They can still decide to replay all the NN games before the thermal "issue". Or they can change tiebreak rules. Or they could give a wild card to Lc0.
Judging how they respect the rules and how tournament is run all those scenarios certainly have non-zero chance of happening .
https://www.strawpoll.me/16282056/r
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- Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Thanks for those, I was just actually in the process of making some adjusts already:Guenther wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:22 pmFWIW here some data from CCRL plus notes and rough additional rating improvement expectationschrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:26 pm Division 3 decided. Ethereal and Arasan go through. Well done Ethereal programmer, that's a really nice speculative evaluator you programmed there, some of the main line scores were seriously impressive, almost neural network-like. And well done John Dart, well deserved!
Meanwhile, sim promotion predictions for Division 2 (based on some possibly dodgy elo stats)
Ethereal 89%
Gull 64%
Nirvana 35%
Xiphos 3%
Arasan 4%
Vajolet 2%
Texel 1%
ChainBrain 0%
Code: Select all
Division 2, Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two Ethereal 3314 3314 0.650 0.890 Gull 3263 3263 0.236 0.644 Nirvana 3229 3229 0.100 0.359 Xiphos 3138 3138 0.005 0.033 Arasan 3146 3146 0.005 0.040 Vajolet 3128 3128 0.003 0.022 Texel 3111 3111 0.001 0.012 ChessBrainVB 2983 2983 0.000 0.000
[my guess given as ++/+/(+)]for newer versions.Code: Select all
#Name CCRL40/40 4CPU Version Improv.(Guess) Ethereal 3295 10.55 ++ Nirvana 3187 2.4 Gull 3184 3.0 Xiphos 3181 0.3 ++ Texel 3145 1.07 + ChessbrainVB 3128 3.68 (+) ArasanX 3124 20.41 ++ Vajolet2 3101 2.5 + *notes: - Nirvana and Gull not under development anymore - inofficial Gull 3.1 is below official 3.0 for given rating source
"Gull", 0, 3184,
"Texel", 0, 3145,
"Xiphos", 0, 3181,
"ChessBrainVB", 0, 3128,
"Nirvana", 0, 3187,
"Vajolet", 0, 3101,
"Ethereal", 0, 3335,
"Arasan", 0, 3174,
The same as yours, but I gave Ethereal some pts to adjust for its tournament performance in Div3, likewise Arasan. 40 to Ethereal and 50 to Arasan.
Should I reduce Gull a little? And Nirvana?
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Well, you're sensible, whilst the poll was promoted at Leela Discord as: "Straw poll to convince Anton, go vote", so that's a majority that can be safely ignored.Uri Blass wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:29 pmNote that the majority voted for replaying all the NN games(I voted against it).Milos wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:14 pmAre you sure it is decided?chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:26 pm Division 3 decided. Ethereal and Arasan go through. Well done Ethereal programmer, that's a really nice speculative evaluator you programmed there, some of the main line scores were seriously impressive, almost neural network-like. And well done John Dart, well deserved!
They can still decide to replay all the NN games before the thermal "issue". Or they can change tiebreak rules. Or they could give a wild card to Lc0.
Judging how they respect the rules and how tournament is run all those scenarios certainly have non-zero chance of happening .
https://www.strawpoll.me/16282056/r
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Note that the adjustment is also there in my data by the given column 'Improv. Guess', just that you have to add some ratingchrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:32 pm
Thanks for those, I was just actually in the process of making some adjusts already:
"Gull", 0, 3184,
"Texel", 0, 3145,
"Xiphos", 0, 3181,
"ChessBrainVB", 0, 3128,
"Nirvana", 0, 3187,
"Vajolet", 0, 3101,
"Ethereal", 0, 3335,
"Arasan", 0, 3174,
The same as yours, but I gave Ethereal some pts to adjust for its tournament performance in Div3, likewise Arasan. 40 to Ethereal and 50 to Arasan.
Should I reduce Gull a little? And Nirvana?
according to the ++/+/(+) values, which means add quite some for Ethereal, Arasan and Xiphos and some for Texel and Vajolet2,
may be a tiny bit for ChessbrainVB and nothing to Nirvana and Gull.
https://rwbc-chess.de
trollwatch:
Talkchess nowadays is a joke - it is full of trolls/idiots/people stuck in the pleistocene > 80% of the posts fall into this category...
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Okay, got it now. I gave Ethereal and Arasan +40 and +50, so will give Xiphos +45, Texel and Vajolet +20, and ChessBrain 5. Does that figure?Guenther wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:43 pmNote that the adjustment is also there in my data by the given column 'Improv. Guess', just that you have to add some ratingchrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:32 pm
Thanks for those, I was just actually in the process of making some adjusts already:
"Gull", 0, 3184,
"Texel", 0, 3145,
"Xiphos", 0, 3181,
"ChessBrainVB", 0, 3128,
"Nirvana", 0, 3187,
"Vajolet", 0, 3101,
"Ethereal", 0, 3335,
"Arasan", 0, 3174,
The same as yours, but I gave Ethereal some pts to adjust for its tournament performance in Div3, likewise Arasan. 40 to Ethereal and 50 to Arasan.
Should I reduce Gull a little? And Nirvana?
according to the ++/+/(+) values, which means add quite some for Ethereal, Arasan and Xiphos and some for Texel and Vajolet2,
may be a tiny bit for ChessbrainVB and nothing to Nirvana and Gull.
"Gull", 0, 3184,
"Texel", 0, 3145+20,
"Xiphos", 0, 3181+45,
"ChessBrainVB", 0, 3128+5,
"Nirvana", 0, 3187,
"Vajolet", 0, 3101+20,
"Ethereal", 0, 3335,
"Arasan", 0, 3174,
The first runs of the Div2 Sim will be without any game data, so will be entirely based on elo rank. Those figures would predict Ethereal and Xiphos through.
Last edited by chrisw on Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TCEC Division 3 results simulator
Sounds good enough for an educated guesschrisw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:54 pm
Okay, got it now. I gave Ethereal and Arasan +40 and +50, so will give Xiphos +45, Texel and Vajolet +20, and ChessBrain 5. Does that figure?
"Gull", 0, 3184,
"Texel", 0, 3145+20,
"Xiphos", 0, 3181+45,
"ChessBrainVB", 0, 3128+5,
"Nirvana", 0, 3187,
"Vajolet", 0, 3101+20,
"Ethereal", 0, 3335,
"Arasan", 0, 3174,
https://rwbc-chess.de
trollwatch:
Talkchess nowadays is a joke - it is full of trolls/idiots/people stuck in the pleistocene > 80% of the posts fall into this category...
trollwatch:
Talkchess nowadays is a joke - it is full of trolls/idiots/people stuck in the pleistocene > 80% of the posts fall into this category...