TCEC Division 2 results simulator

[chrisw]

After 21 games, the Sim predicts chances of going through to Division 1 are:

Ethereal 97%
Arasan 44%
Xiphos 30%
Texel 11%
ChessBrain 8%
Gull 5%
Nirvana 2%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3335         3335       0.876  0.971
Arasan         3206         3174       0.065  0.445
Xiphos         3220         3226       0.037  0.302
Texel          3173         3165       0.009  0.110
ChessBrainVB   3154         3133       0.007  0.083
Gull           3169         3184       0.004  0.057
Nirvana        3158         3187       0.001  0.026
Vajolet2       3107         3119       0.000  0.005

Code: Select all

1 Ethereal 10.85    3379 3.5  5 8.50 0  -5 70.0 ·· =  1     =     =  1 
 2 Arasan TCEC13     3255 3.5  5 8.00 0 +27 70.0 =  ·· =        1  1  = 
 3 Texel 1.08a11     3273 3.0  6 7.50 0  -8 50.0 0  =  ·· =  =  =  1    
 4 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 3.0  5 6.25 0  +5 60.0       =  ·· =  =  =  1 
 5 Xiphos 0.3.14     3193 2.5  5 6.50 0 +11 50.0 =     =  =  ·· =     = 
 6 Gull 180521       3217 2.0  5 5.25 0 -14 40.0    0  =  =  =  ·· =    
 7 Nirvana 2.4       3168 2.0  6 5.00 0 -11 33.3 =  0  0  =     =  ·· = 
 8 Vajolet2 2.6      3119 1.5  5 4.00 1  -5 30.0 0  =     0  =     =  ··

[Uri Blass]

After 21 games, the Sim predicts chances of going through to Division 1 are:

Ethereal 97%
Arasan 44%
Xiphos 30%
Texel 11%
ChessBrain 8%
Gull 5%
Nirvana 2%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3335         3335       0.876  0.971
Arasan         3206         3174       0.065  0.445
Xiphos         3220         3226       0.037  0.302
Texel          3173         3165       0.009  0.110
ChessBrainVB   3154         3133       0.007  0.083
Gull           3169         3184       0.004  0.057
Nirvana        3158         3187       0.001  0.026
Vajolet2       3107         3119       0.000  0.005

Code: Select all

1 Ethereal 10.85    3379 3.5  5 8.50 0  -5 70.0 ·· =  1     =     =  1 
 2 Arasan TCEC13     3255 3.5  5 8.00 0 +27 70.0 =  ·· =        1  1  = 
 3 Texel 1.08a11     3273 3.0  6 7.50 0  -8 50.0 0  =  ·· =  =  =  1    
 4 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 3.0  5 6.25 0  +5 60.0       =  ·· =  =  =  1 
 5 Xiphos 0.3.14     3193 2.5  5 6.50 0 +11 50.0 =     =  =  ·· =     = 
 6 Gull 180521       3217 2.0  5 5.25 0 -14 40.0    0  =  =  =  ·· =    
 7 Nirvana 2.4       3168 2.0  6 5.00 0 -11 33.3 =  0  0  =     =  ·· = 
 8 Vajolet2 2.6      3119 1.5  5 4.00 1  -5 30.0 0  =     0  =     =  ··

I am surprised by the 44% for arasan.
Arasan promoted only thanks to tiebreak in division 3 and did not get an upgrade.
I expected to see lower probability for it based on this knowledge even without knowing what we know at the time of this post that arasan lost against chessbrain.

[chrisw]

After 21 games, the Sim predicts chances of going through to Division 1 are:

Ethereal 97%
Arasan 44%
Xiphos 30%
Texel 11%
ChessBrain 8%
Gull 5%
Nirvana 2%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3335         3335       0.876  0.971
Arasan         3206         3174       0.065  0.445
Xiphos         3220         3226       0.037  0.302
Texel          3173         3165       0.009  0.110
ChessBrainVB   3154         3133       0.007  0.083
Gull           3169         3184       0.004  0.057
Nirvana        3158         3187       0.001  0.026
Vajolet2       3107         3119       0.000  0.005

Code: Select all

1 Ethereal 10.85    3379 3.5  5 8.50 0  -5 70.0 ·· =  1     =     =  1 
 2 Arasan TCEC13     3255 3.5  5 8.00 0 +27 70.0 =  ·· =        1  1  = 
 3 Texel 1.08a11     3273 3.0  6 7.50 0  -8 50.0 0  =  ·· =  =  =  1    
 4 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 3.0  5 6.25 0  +5 60.0       =  ·· =  =  =  1 
 5 Xiphos 0.3.14     3193 2.5  5 6.50 0 +11 50.0 =     =  =  ·· =     = 
 6 Gull 180521       3217 2.0  5 5.25 0 -14 40.0    0  =  =  =  ·· =    
 7 Nirvana 2.4       3168 2.0  6 5.00 0 -11 33.3 =  0  0  =     =  ·· = 
 8 Vajolet2 2.6      3119 1.5  5 4.00 1  -5 30.0 0  =     0  =     =  ··

I am surprised by the 44% for arasan.
Arasan promoted only thanks to tiebreak in division 3 and did not get an upgrade.
I expected to see lower probability for it based on this knowledge even without knowing what we know at the time of this post that arasan lost against chessbrain.

in the first stages of a division, when not too many games have been played, the strongest effect on the rankings comes from the "tournament elo". I derive tournament elo from the initial elo given plus a modification for results so far. The initial elo for this division came from CCRL 40 figures adjusted wuth some advice by Guenther in the other thread, and using the tournament elos for Ethereal and Arasan passed up from the previous division.
As results come in, the rankings will vary, and the rankings will be gradually more influenced by results.
Beyond that, it's under the control of the win/loss/draw elo statistic predictions forindividual results.
If you like to make a discussion on the initial elo figures, I am all ears

[chrisw]

After 31 games, sim promotion chances prediction:

Ethereal 93%
Arasan, ChessBrain, Xiphos on about 27% each
Texel 14%
Gull 6%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3317         3335       0.803  0.934
ChessBrainVB   3177         3133       0.059  0.280
Xiphos         3216         3226       0.056  0.283
Arasan         3193         3174       0.050  0.268
Texel          3178         3165       0.021  0.142
Gull           3172         3184       0.008  0.065
Nirvana        3143         3187       0.001  0.011
Vajolet2       3127         3119       0.002  0.019

Code: Select all

 1 Ethereal 10.85    3379 5.0  8 18.75 0 -23 62.5 ·· =  =  1= =  =  1  = 
 2 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 4.5  7 17.25 0 +28 64.3 =  ·· 1  =  =  =  1  = 
 3 Arasan TCEC13     3255 4.5  8 15.75 0  +6 56.3 =  0  ·· =  1= =  =  1 
 4 Texel 1.08a11     3273 4.0  8 14.75 0 -10 50.0 0= =  =  ·· =  =  =  1 
 5 Gull 180521       3217 3.5  8 13.75 0 -10 43.8 =  =  0= =  ·· =  =  = 
 6 Xiphos 0.3.14     3193 3.5  7 13.75 0 +13 50.0 =  =  =  =  =  ·· =  = 
 7 Vajolet2 2.6      3119 3.5  8 11.50 1 +24 43.8 0  0  =  =  =  =  ·· =1
 8 Nirvana 2.4       3168 2.5  8 10.00 0 -28 31.3 =  =  0  0  =  =  =0 ··

[chrisw]

After 44 games, ChessBrain is 1pt in the lead, but the sim gives Ethereal best chances of going through (because the initial given elo is high)

Is ChessBrain at CCRL elo of 3133 underrated?

Ethereal chance to promote 80%
ChessBrain 59%
Xiphos 27%
Arasan 18%
Texel 9%
Gull 4%

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3301         3335       0.554  0.808
ChessBrainVB   3207         3133       0.270  0.598
Xiphos         3220         3226       0.096  0.272
Arasan         3194         3174       0.050  0.182
Texel          3178         3165       0.022  0.094
Gull           3173         3184       0.008  0.040
Vajolet2       3127         3121       0.001  0.005
Nirvana        3124         3187       0.000  0.001

Code: Select all

 1 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 7.5 11 37.00 0 +55 68.2 ·· =  1  =0 =1 =1 1  =1
 2 Ethereal 10.85    3379 6.5 11 33.25 0 -47 59.1 =  ·· == =  1= =  1= ==
 3 Arasan TCEC13     3255 6.0 11 30.00 0  +6 54.5 0  == ·· =  == 1= == 1 
 4 Xiphos 0.3.14     3193 6.0 11 33.50 1 +33 54.5 =1 =  =  ·· =0 == =1 = 
 5 Texel 1.08a11     3273 5.5 11 29.75 0 -16 50.0 =0 0= == =1 ·· =  =  1 
 6 Gull 180521       3217 5.0 11 25.50 0 -12 45.5 =0 =  0= == =  ·· =  =1
 7 Vajolet2 2.6      3119 4.5 11 22.00 1 +28 40.9 0  0= == =0 =  =  ·· =1
 8 Nirvana 2.4       3168 3.0 11 18.00 0 -46 27.3 =0 == 0  =  0  =0 =0 ··

[chrisw]

After 54 games, 66% draw rate (Div 4 was 50%), three disconnects, sim predicts promotion chances:

Ethereal 83%
ChessBrain 69%
Xiphos 23%
Arasan 9%
Gull 4%

Ethereal ahead in the Sim, despite two points behind ChessBrain because a) Ethereal initial given elo is much higher and b) ChessBrain and Xiphos are now both hampered by the disconnection tie-break rule.

Looks like interest in TCEC is much reduced without LC0 participating. Me too.

Code: Select all

Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3298         3335       0.558  0.830
ChessBrainVB   3207         3133       0.316  0.697
Xiphos         3222         3226       0.072  0.235
Texel          3177         3165       0.023  0.100
Arasan         3180         3174       0.021  0.091
Gull           3172         3184       0.009  0.042
Vajolet2       3118         3121       0.000  0.002
Nirvana        3148         3187       0.000  0.004

Code: Select all

 1 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 9.5 14 58.00 0 +72 67.9 ·· == =0 1= =1 =1 =1 11
 2 Ethereal 10.85    3379 7.5 13 49.25 0 -61 57.7 == ·· == == 1= =  == 1=
 3 Xiphos 0.3.14     3193 7.5 14 51.50 1 +42 53.6 =1 == ·· =1 =0 == =0 =1
 4 Arasan TCEC13     3255 7.0 14 44.00 0 -17 50.0 0= == =0 ·· == 1= 1= ==
 5 Texel 1.08a11     3273 6.5 13 42.75 0 -23 50.0 =0 0= =1 == ·· == 1= = 
 6 Gull 180521       3217 6.0 13 38.50 0 -14 46.2 =0 =  == 0= == ·· =1 ==
 7 Nirvana 2.4       3168 5.0 14 35.75 0 -20 35.7 =0 == =1 0= 0= =0 ·· =0
 8 Vajolet2 2.6      3119 5.0 13 31.25 2 +22 38.5 00 0= =0 == =  == =1 ··

[chrisw]

After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.

Code: Select all

Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3335       0.817  1.000
ChessBrainVB   3286         3133       0.183  0.995
Texel          3184         3165       0.000  0.001
Gull           3169         3184       0.000  0.000
Arasan         3154         3174       0.000  0.000
Vajolet2       3136         3121       0.000  0.000
Nirvana        3109         3187       0.000  0.000
Xiphos         3218         3226       0.000  0.004

Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3326       0.452  0.684
ChessBrainVB   3286         3286       0.182  0.396
Fizbo          3282         3282       0.165  0.368
Booot          3272         3272       0.121  0.296
Laser          3231         3231       0.035  0.107
Fritz          3226         3226       0.029  0.093
Chiron         3198         3198       0.010  0.037
Jonny          3180         3180       0.005  0.019

[JJJ]

After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.

Code: Select all

Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3335       0.817  1.000
ChessBrainVB   3286         3133       0.183  0.995
Texel          3184         3165       0.000  0.001
Gull           3169         3184       0.000  0.000
Arasan         3154         3174       0.000  0.000
Vajolet2       3136         3121       0.000  0.000
Nirvana        3109         3187       0.000  0.000
Xiphos         3218         3226       0.000  0.004

Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3326       0.452  0.684
ChessBrainVB   3286         3286       0.182  0.396
Fizbo          3282         3282       0.165  0.368
Booot          3272         3272       0.121  0.296
Laser          3231         3231       0.035  0.107
Fritz          3226         3226       0.029  0.093
Chiron         3198         3198       0.010  0.037
Jonny          3180         3180       0.005  0.019

I don't think Etheral will be above fire. And I m not even sure it will reach div 1. But let see !

[Uri Blass]

After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.

Code: Select all

Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3335       0.817  1.000
ChessBrainVB   3286         3133       0.183  0.995
Texel          3184         3165       0.000  0.001
Gull           3169         3184       0.000  0.000
Arasan         3154         3174       0.000  0.000
Vajolet2       3136         3121       0.000  0.000
Nirvana        3109         3187       0.000  0.000
Xiphos         3218         3226       0.000  0.004

Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3326       0.452  0.684
ChessBrainVB   3286         3286       0.182  0.396
Fizbo          3282         3282       0.165  0.368
Booot          3272         3272       0.121  0.296
Laser          3231         3231       0.035  0.107
Fritz          3226         3226       0.029  0.093
Chiron         3198         3198       0.010  0.037
Jonny          3180         3180       0.005  0.019

I don't think Etheral will be above fire. And I m not even sure it will reach div 1. But let see !

I guess you mean premier division and not division 1 because we can be sure that Ethereal reach div 1.

[JJJ]

After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.

Code: Select all

Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3335       0.817  1.000
ChessBrainVB   3286         3133       0.183  0.995
Texel          3184         3165       0.000  0.001
Gull           3169         3184       0.000  0.000
Arasan         3154         3174       0.000  0.000
Vajolet2       3136         3121       0.000  0.000
Nirvana        3109         3187       0.000  0.000
Xiphos         3218         3226       0.000  0.004

Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3326         3326       0.452  0.684
ChessBrainVB   3286         3286       0.182  0.396
Fizbo          3282         3282       0.165  0.368
Booot          3272         3272       0.121  0.296
Laser          3231         3231       0.035  0.107
Fritz          3226         3226       0.029  0.093
Chiron         3198         3198       0.010  0.037
Jonny          3180         3180       0.005  0.019

I don't think Etheral will be above fire. And I m not even sure it will reach div 1. But let see !

I guess you mean premier division and not division 1 because we can be sure that Ethereal reach div 1.

Yes.