Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.
Moderators: hgm , Rebel , chrisw
chrisw
Posts: 4319 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:28 am
After 21 games, the Sim predicts chances of going through to Division 1 are:
Ethereal 97%
Arasan 44%
Xiphos 30%
Texel 11%
ChessBrain 8%
Gull 5%
Nirvana 2%
Code: Select all
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3335 3335 0.876 0.971
Arasan 3206 3174 0.065 0.445
Xiphos 3220 3226 0.037 0.302
Texel 3173 3165 0.009 0.110
ChessBrainVB 3154 3133 0.007 0.083
Gull 3169 3184 0.004 0.057
Nirvana 3158 3187 0.001 0.026
Vajolet2 3107 3119 0.000 0.005
Code: Select all
1 Ethereal 10.85 3379 3.5 5 8.50 0 -5 70.0 ·· = 1 = = 1
2 Arasan TCEC13 3255 3.5 5 8.00 0 +27 70.0 = ·· = 1 1 =
3 Texel 1.08a11 3273 3.0 6 7.50 0 -8 50.0 0 = ·· = = = 1
4 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 3.0 5 6.25 0 +5 60.0 = ·· = = = 1
5 Xiphos 0.3.14 3193 2.5 5 6.50 0 +11 50.0 = = = ·· = =
6 Gull 180521 3217 2.0 5 5.25 0 -14 40.0 0 = = = ·· =
7 Nirvana 2.4 3168 2.0 6 5.00 0 -11 33.3 = 0 0 = = ·· =
8 Vajolet2 2.6 3119 1.5 5 4.00 1 -5 30.0 0 = 0 = = ··
Uri Blass
Posts: 10309 Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel
Post
by Uri Blass » Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:14 am
chrisw wrote: ↑ Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:28 am
After 21 games, the Sim predicts chances of going through to Division 1 are:
Ethereal 97%
Arasan 44%
Xiphos 30%
Texel 11%
ChessBrain 8%
Gull 5%
Nirvana 2%
Code: Select all
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3335 3335 0.876 0.971
Arasan 3206 3174 0.065 0.445
Xiphos 3220 3226 0.037 0.302
Texel 3173 3165 0.009 0.110
ChessBrainVB 3154 3133 0.007 0.083
Gull 3169 3184 0.004 0.057
Nirvana 3158 3187 0.001 0.026
Vajolet2 3107 3119 0.000 0.005
Code: Select all
1 Ethereal 10.85 3379 3.5 5 8.50 0 -5 70.0 ·· = 1 = = 1
2 Arasan TCEC13 3255 3.5 5 8.00 0 +27 70.0 = ·· = 1 1 =
3 Texel 1.08a11 3273 3.0 6 7.50 0 -8 50.0 0 = ·· = = = 1
4 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 3.0 5 6.25 0 +5 60.0 = ·· = = = 1
5 Xiphos 0.3.14 3193 2.5 5 6.50 0 +11 50.0 = = = ·· = =
6 Gull 180521 3217 2.0 5 5.25 0 -14 40.0 0 = = = ·· =
7 Nirvana 2.4 3168 2.0 6 5.00 0 -11 33.3 = 0 0 = = ·· =
8 Vajolet2 2.6 3119 1.5 5 4.00 1 -5 30.0 0 = 0 = = ··
I am surprised by the 44% for arasan.
Arasan promoted only thanks to tiebreak in division 3 and did not get an upgrade.
I expected to see lower probability for it based on this knowledge even without knowing what we know at the time of this post that arasan lost against chessbrain.
chrisw
Posts: 4319 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:17 am
Uri Blass wrote: ↑ Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:14 am
chrisw wrote: ↑ Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:28 am
After 21 games, the Sim predicts chances of going through to Division 1 are:
Ethereal 97%
Arasan 44%
Xiphos 30%
Texel 11%
ChessBrain 8%
Gull 5%
Nirvana 2%
Code: Select all
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3335 3335 0.876 0.971
Arasan 3206 3174 0.065 0.445
Xiphos 3220 3226 0.037 0.302
Texel 3173 3165 0.009 0.110
ChessBrainVB 3154 3133 0.007 0.083
Gull 3169 3184 0.004 0.057
Nirvana 3158 3187 0.001 0.026
Vajolet2 3107 3119 0.000 0.005
Code: Select all
1 Ethereal 10.85 3379 3.5 5 8.50 0 -5 70.0 ·· = 1 = = 1
2 Arasan TCEC13 3255 3.5 5 8.00 0 +27 70.0 = ·· = 1 1 =
3 Texel 1.08a11 3273 3.0 6 7.50 0 -8 50.0 0 = ·· = = = 1
4 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 3.0 5 6.25 0 +5 60.0 = ·· = = = 1
5 Xiphos 0.3.14 3193 2.5 5 6.50 0 +11 50.0 = = = ·· = =
6 Gull 180521 3217 2.0 5 5.25 0 -14 40.0 0 = = = ·· =
7 Nirvana 2.4 3168 2.0 6 5.00 0 -11 33.3 = 0 0 = = ·· =
8 Vajolet2 2.6 3119 1.5 5 4.00 1 -5 30.0 0 = 0 = = ··
I am surprised by the 44% for arasan.
Arasan promoted only thanks to tiebreak in division 3 and did not get an upgrade.
I expected to see lower probability for it based on this knowledge even without knowing what we know at the time of this post that arasan lost against chessbrain.
in the first stages of a division, when not too many games have been played, the strongest effect on the rankings comes from the "tournament elo". I derive tournament elo from the initial elo given plus a modification for results so far. The initial elo for this division came from CCRL 40 figures adjusted wuth some advice by Guenther in the other thread, and using the tournament elos for Ethereal and Arasan passed up from the previous division.
As results come in, the rankings will vary, and the rankings will be gradually more influenced by results.
Beyond that, it's under the control of the win/loss/draw elo statistic predictions forindividual results.
If you like to make a discussion on the initial elo figures, I am all ears
chrisw
Posts: 4319 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:55 am
After 31 games, sim promotion chances prediction:
Ethereal 93%
Arasan, ChessBrain, Xiphos on about 27% each
Texel 14%
Gull 6%
Code: Select all
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3317 3335 0.803 0.934
ChessBrainVB 3177 3133 0.059 0.280
Xiphos 3216 3226 0.056 0.283
Arasan 3193 3174 0.050 0.268
Texel 3178 3165 0.021 0.142
Gull 3172 3184 0.008 0.065
Nirvana 3143 3187 0.001 0.011
Vajolet2 3127 3119 0.002 0.019
Code: Select all
1 Ethereal 10.85 3379 5.0 8 18.75 0 -23 62.5 ·· = = 1= = = 1 =
2 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 4.5 7 17.25 0 +28 64.3 = ·· 1 = = = 1 =
3 Arasan TCEC13 3255 4.5 8 15.75 0 +6 56.3 = 0 ·· = 1= = = 1
4 Texel 1.08a11 3273 4.0 8 14.75 0 -10 50.0 0= = = ·· = = = 1
5 Gull 180521 3217 3.5 8 13.75 0 -10 43.8 = = 0= = ·· = = =
6 Xiphos 0.3.14 3193 3.5 7 13.75 0 +13 50.0 = = = = = ·· = =
7 Vajolet2 2.6 3119 3.5 8 11.50 1 +24 43.8 0 0 = = = = ·· =1
8 Nirvana 2.4 3168 2.5 8 10.00 0 -28 31.3 = = 0 0 = = =0 ··
chrisw
Posts: 4319 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:56 am
After 44 games, ChessBrain is 1pt in the lead, but the sim gives Ethereal best chances of going through (because the initial given elo is high)
Is ChessBrain at CCRL elo of 3133 underrated?
Ethereal chance to promote 80%
ChessBrain 59%
Xiphos 27%
Arasan 18%
Texel 9%
Gull 4%
Code: Select all
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3301 3335 0.554 0.808
ChessBrainVB 3207 3133 0.270 0.598
Xiphos 3220 3226 0.096 0.272
Arasan 3194 3174 0.050 0.182
Texel 3178 3165 0.022 0.094
Gull 3173 3184 0.008 0.040
Vajolet2 3127 3121 0.001 0.005
Nirvana 3124 3187 0.000 0.001
Code: Select all
1 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 7.5 11 37.00 0 +55 68.2 ·· = 1 =0 =1 =1 1 =1
2 Ethereal 10.85 3379 6.5 11 33.25 0 -47 59.1 = ·· == = 1= = 1= ==
3 Arasan TCEC13 3255 6.0 11 30.00 0 +6 54.5 0 == ·· = == 1= == 1
4 Xiphos 0.3.14 3193 6.0 11 33.50 1 +33 54.5 =1 = = ·· =0 == =1 =
5 Texel 1.08a11 3273 5.5 11 29.75 0 -16 50.0 =0 0= == =1 ·· = = 1
6 Gull 180521 3217 5.0 11 25.50 0 -12 45.5 =0 = 0= == = ·· = =1
7 Vajolet2 2.6 3119 4.5 11 22.00 1 +28 40.9 0 0= == =0 = = ·· =1
8 Nirvana 2.4 3168 3.0 11 18.00 0 -46 27.3 =0 == 0 = 0 =0 =0 ··
chrisw
Posts: 4319 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:05 pm
After 54 games, 66% draw rate (Div 4 was 50%), three disconnects, sim predicts promotion chances:
Ethereal 83%
ChessBrain 69%
Xiphos 23%
Arasan 9%
Gull 4%
Ethereal ahead in the Sim, despite two points behind ChessBrain because a) Ethereal initial given elo is much higher and b) ChessBrain and Xiphos are now both hampered by the disconnection tie-break rule.
Looks like interest in TCEC is much reduced without LC0 participating. Me too.
Code: Select all
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3298 3335 0.558 0.830
ChessBrainVB 3207 3133 0.316 0.697
Xiphos 3222 3226 0.072 0.235
Texel 3177 3165 0.023 0.100
Arasan 3180 3174 0.021 0.091
Gull 3172 3184 0.009 0.042
Vajolet2 3118 3121 0.000 0.002
Nirvana 3148 3187 0.000 0.004
Code: Select all
1 ChessBrainVB 3.70 3242 9.5 14 58.00 0 +72 67.9 ·· == =0 1= =1 =1 =1 11
2 Ethereal 10.85 3379 7.5 13 49.25 0 -61 57.7 == ·· == == 1= = == 1=
3 Xiphos 0.3.14 3193 7.5 14 51.50 1 +42 53.6 =1 == ·· =1 =0 == =0 =1
4 Arasan TCEC13 3255 7.0 14 44.00 0 -17 50.0 0= == =0 ·· == 1= 1= ==
5 Texel 1.08a11 3273 6.5 13 42.75 0 -23 50.0 =0 0= =1 == ·· == 1= =
6 Gull 180521 3217 6.0 13 38.50 0 -14 46.2 =0 = == 0= == ·· =1 ==
7 Nirvana 2.4 3168 5.0 14 35.75 0 -20 35.7 =0 == =1 0= 0= =0 ·· =0
8 Vajolet2 2.6 3119 5.0 13 31.25 2 +22 38.5 00 0= =0 == = == =1 ··
chrisw
Posts: 4319 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:18 pm
After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.
Code: Select all
Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3335 0.817 1.000
ChessBrainVB 3286 3133 0.183 0.995
Texel 3184 3165 0.000 0.001
Gull 3169 3184 0.000 0.000
Arasan 3154 3174 0.000 0.000
Vajolet2 3136 3121 0.000 0.000
Nirvana 3109 3187 0.000 0.000
Xiphos 3218 3226 0.000 0.004
Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3326 0.452 0.684
ChessBrainVB 3286 3286 0.182 0.396
Fizbo 3282 3282 0.165 0.368
Booot 3272 3272 0.121 0.296
Laser 3231 3231 0.035 0.107
Fritz 3226 3226 0.029 0.093
Chiron 3198 3198 0.010 0.037
Jonny 3180 3180 0.005 0.019
JJJ
Posts: 1346 Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:47 pm
Post
by JJJ » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:59 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:18 pm
After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.
Code: Select all
Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3335 0.817 1.000
ChessBrainVB 3286 3133 0.183 0.995
Texel 3184 3165 0.000 0.001
Gull 3169 3184 0.000 0.000
Arasan 3154 3174 0.000 0.000
Vajolet2 3136 3121 0.000 0.000
Nirvana 3109 3187 0.000 0.000
Xiphos 3218 3226 0.000 0.004
Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3326 0.452 0.684
ChessBrainVB 3286 3286 0.182 0.396
Fizbo 3282 3282 0.165 0.368
Booot 3272 3272 0.121 0.296
Laser 3231 3231 0.035 0.107
Fritz 3226 3226 0.029 0.093
Chiron 3198 3198 0.010 0.037
Jonny 3180 3180 0.005 0.019
I don't think Etheral will be above fire. And I m not even sure it will reach div 1. But let see !
Uri Blass
Posts: 10309 Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 12:37 am
Location: Tel-Aviv Israel
Post
by Uri Blass » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:33 pm
JJJ wrote: ↑ Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:59 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:18 pm
After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.
Code: Select all
Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3335 0.817 1.000
ChessBrainVB 3286 3133 0.183 0.995
Texel 3184 3165 0.000 0.001
Gull 3169 3184 0.000 0.000
Arasan 3154 3174 0.000 0.000
Vajolet2 3136 3121 0.000 0.000
Nirvana 3109 3187 0.000 0.000
Xiphos 3218 3226 0.000 0.004
Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3326 0.452 0.684
ChessBrainVB 3286 3286 0.182 0.396
Fizbo 3282 3282 0.165 0.368
Booot 3272 3272 0.121 0.296
Laser 3231 3231 0.035 0.107
Fritz 3226 3226 0.029 0.093
Chiron 3198 3198 0.010 0.037
Jonny 3180 3180 0.005 0.019
I don't think Etheral will be above fire. And I m not even sure it will reach div 1. But let see !
I guess you mean premier division and not division 1 because we can be sure that Ethereal reach div 1.
JJJ
Posts: 1346 Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:47 pm
Post
by JJJ » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:36 am
Uri Blass wrote: ↑ Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:33 pm
JJJ wrote: ↑ Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:59 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:18 pm
After 93 rounds, the results simulator has Ethereal and Chessbrain getting promoted to Division 1 with 99% certainty and if the elo projections are correct, both will also promote to Premier Division. Where sim predicts Ethereal coming 4th overall.
Code: Select all
Division 2,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3335 0.817 1.000
ChessBrainVB 3286 3133 0.183 0.995
Texel 3184 3165 0.000 0.001
Gull 3169 3184 0.000 0.000
Arasan 3154 3174 0.000 0.000
Vajolet2 3136 3121 0.000 0.000
Nirvana 3109 3187 0.000 0.000
Xiphos 3218 3226 0.000 0.004
Division 1,
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal 3326 3326 0.452 0.684
ChessBrainVB 3286 3286 0.182 0.396
Fizbo 3282 3282 0.165 0.368
Booot 3272 3272 0.121 0.296
Laser 3231 3231 0.035 0.107
Fritz 3226 3226 0.029 0.093
Chiron 3198 3198 0.010 0.037
Jonny 3180 3180 0.005 0.019
I don't think Etheral will be above fire. And I m not even sure it will reach div 1. But let see !
I guess you mean premier division and not division 1 because we can be sure that Ethereal reach div 1.
Yes.