"Good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from bad decisions."
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Ted Summers
Nay Lin Tun wrote: ↑Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:47 am
In September 3, 2018, chess.com will be hosting their computer chess championship for this year. There are a lot of background factors that favor Leela to be able to fight for No 1 vs the best AB engine , Stockfish. Of course, if you recently saw Leela performance in TCEC Division 3, this post will be a big joke( But in bonus games, she draw all 9 games vs Stockfish 8 and Ethereal).
Improvement factors/favoring factors for Leela,
1. 4x V 100 for Leela vs 48 cores ( GPU/CPU ratio will be 3.6 times in favor for Leela than TCEC, approximately + 90 elo)
2. Newer ID are already stronger than 520 (at least +50 elo)
3. Leela will have Tablebase support (possibly +20 elo)
As latest version of stockfish is only 100 elo stronger than stockfish 8, Leela will be in more favour if she can effectively use 4x V100 and Tablebases.
Quoting my prediction, I predicted that Leela would be as strong as stockfish, fighting for No. 1. However, after playing half of the tournment, we can quite confidently predict that she will likely end as No. 4. ( Performance of all those big 4 engines would probably be within 100 elo gap).
I tested only against full strength 4 core Dev SF vs Leela 1060 GTX on my PC. I expected that if she can play as strong as stockfish in cccc ( due to hardware boost) , she will likely get the same score as stockfish. I did not expect she will throw away many winning endgames like that..
My prediction was not very accurate, but still decent.