Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

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chrisw
Posts: 1555
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Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by chrisw » Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:26 am

28 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 77%
Chiron 65%
Fizbo 32%
ChessBrainVB 14%
Laser 6%

Code: Select all

Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3347         3334       0.489  0.774
Chiron         3323         3288       0.331  0.652
Fizbo          3298         3287       0.116  0.327
ChessBrainVB   3271         3279       0.043  0.148
Laser          3243         3226       0.015  0.066
Fritz          3219         3226       0.005  0.025
Jonny          3150         3140       0.000  0.001
Booot          3217         3272       0.001  0.007
Adjustment suggestions/advice on initial elos welcomed

JJJ
Posts: 1276
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:47 am

Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by JJJ » Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:16 pm

seems realistic to me.

whereagles
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Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:03 am

Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by whereagles » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:01 pm

Ethereal on a RAMPAGE!

chrisw
Posts: 1555
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by chrisw » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am

40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%

Code: Select all

Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3374         3334       0.562  0.909
Chiron         3351         3288       0.392  0.835
Fizbo          3301         3287       0.040  0.193
Laser          3247         3226       0.004  0.030
Fritz          3231         3226       0.001  0.014
ChessBrainVB   3247         3279       0.001  0.016
Jonny          3139         3140       0.000  0.000
Booot          3218         3272       0.000  0.002
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:

Code: Select all

Stockfish      3441         3441       0.572  
Komodo         3405         3405       0.186
Houdini        3400         3400       0.159  
Ethereal       3374         3374       0.055 
Chiron         3351         3351       0.019  
Fire           3326         3326       0.005 
Ginkgo         3322         3322       0.004  
Andscacs       3245         3245       0.000

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Guenther
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Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by Guenther » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:52 am

chrisw wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%

...
It seems Chiron has improved quite a lot since its last release!
Of course it's a long time too (since 2017/01).
Current foe list count : [93 - still rising]
http://rwbc-chess.de/chronology.htm

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Laskos
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Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by Laskos » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:59 am

chrisw wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%

Code: Select all

Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3374         3334       0.562  0.909
Chiron         3351         3288       0.392  0.835
Fizbo          3301         3287       0.040  0.193
Laser          3247         3226       0.004  0.030
Fritz          3231         3226       0.001  0.014
ChessBrainVB   3247         3279       0.001  0.016
Jonny          3139         3140       0.000  0.000
Booot          3218         3272       0.000  0.002
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:

Code: Select all

Stockfish      3441         3441       0.572  
Komodo         3405         3405       0.186
Houdini        3400         3400       0.159  
Ethereal       3374         3374       0.055 
Chiron         3351         3351       0.019  
Fire           3326         3326       0.005 
Ginkgo         3322         3322       0.004  
Andscacs       3245         3245       0.000
About the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.

And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).

chrisw
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Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by chrisw » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:36 am

Guenther wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:52 am
chrisw wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%

...
It seems Chiron has improved quite a lot since its last release!
Of course it's a long time too (since 2017/01).
Yes, I noted the big increases made in the years before that and figured, since it was entered into WCCC and it has a new serial number for TCEC that it had been seriously worked on this year, and took a guess at bumping its alleged published elo by 90 pts

chrisw
Posts: 1555
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by chrisw » Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:40 am

Laskos wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:59 am
chrisw wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am
40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%

Code: Select all

Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two
Engine,   Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two
Ethereal       3374         3334       0.562  0.909
Chiron         3351         3288       0.392  0.835
Fizbo          3301         3287       0.040  0.193
Laser          3247         3226       0.004  0.030
Fritz          3231         3226       0.001  0.014
ChessBrainVB   3247         3279       0.001  0.016
Jonny          3139         3140       0.000  0.000
Booot          3218         3272       0.000  0.002
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:

Code: Select all

Stockfish      3441         3441       0.572  
Komodo         3405         3405       0.186
Houdini        3400         3400       0.159  
Ethereal       3374         3374       0.055 
Chiron         3351         3351       0.019  
Fire           3326         3326       0.005 
Ginkgo         3322         3322       0.004  
Andscacs       3245         3245       0.000
About the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.

And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
Could be. Ethereal elo is bumped by the successes so far, and I took a punt on Chiron having been worked on and made annual progress as it made in last years.

The other Premier league figures are just CCRL-grabbed IIRC, so will take a closer look at those next few days.

todd
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Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by todd » Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:32 pm

Premier also has more imbalanced openings than previous stages, which should accentuate rating differences to some extent.

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cdani
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Re: TCEC Division 1 results simulator

Post by cdani » Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:31 pm

Laskos wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:59 am
chrisw wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am

Code: Select all

Andscacs       3245         3245       0.000
I think and I hope that Andscacs will not be last. 0.94 has no elo at CCRL for the moment. Also I have some improvements.

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