I do not know why you assume Fire can be improved fast and Ethereal but here is what I read in the TCEC chatLaskos wrote: ↑Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:01 pmNo, 5:1 for Ethereal in top 3, that was my proposal, maybe I haven't expressed it very clearly. Your prediction is 24%, or close to 3:1, so 5:1 is a good proposal from me. I can go even to 7:1 (Ethereal in top 3). Deal?chrisw wrote: ↑Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:54 amI have Ethereal 1% chance to be first, 6% second and 17% third = 24% to be in top three. Disregard my earlier 33% for Ethereal, my bad adding up or something.Laskos wrote: ↑Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:44 amI don't understand, you have 47% (according to you) and want 3:1? That 33% for Ethereal in top 3 is ridiculous. Instead of a fair 2:1, I can go even for 5:1 that this won't happen. Deal?chrisw wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:30 pmis about 33% that Ethereal and 14% for Fire to get 3rd place or better. According to all the assumptions, elo, spin of the dice bla bla. Gimme 3 to 1 and you're on.Laskos wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:59 pmSo, all places combined, you seem to get around 50% that top 3 will not be the "big three" in the Premiere Division (56 games each). Want a fair 1:1 bet against my statement that they will be?chrisw wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:06 pmThis could well be. They both got a lot of tournament elo from being successful in Division 1. This was added in to their start elos at a 50% weighting. I guess it remains to be seen if this was too much (you can claim told you so rights). Or maybe Ethereal or Fire can steal third place, the sim gives about 0.25 for either of then to get third.Laskos wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:17 pmAgain Ethereal too high in the last table. Probably Chiron too.chrisw wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:30 pmCode: Select all
Division Premier sim predictions, percent chances of engine finishing in Nth place Engine Tournament Initial First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Stockfish 3511 3511 0.700 0.220 0.064 0.013 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 Houdini 3470 3470 0.215 0.447 0.225 0.079 0.025 0.006 0.001 0.000 Komodo 3440 3440 0.069 0.232 0.380 0.194 0.087 0.029 0.007 0.002 Ethereal 3401 3401 0.011 0.061 0.176 0.317 0.242 0.127 0.051 0.016 Fire 3386 3386 0.005 0.032 0.110 0.244 0.297 0.191 0.088 0.033 Chiron 3356 3356 0.001 0.007 0.034 0.105 0.207 0.313 0.215 0.118 Ginkgo 3322 3322 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.028 0.079 0.182 0.331 0.374 Andscacs 3315 3315 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.019 0.061 0.151 0.307 0.457
So, that's 35% for either Fire or Ethereal in top three. Okay I take 5:1 on an upset in the top three.
With Fire engine I have some issues, as it can be improved fast, Kranium style.
"The updated engines for Season 13 Premier Division are Stockfish, Komodo, Andscacs, Ginkgo and Ethereal. Confirmed same versions: Houdini and Fire."