Haha! It didn't need to be personalised with "your" assumptions, "the" assumptions" would be enough. Or "ridiculous", when "Ethereal is likely 70 pts below Fire, as these blitz test results show ..." would be enough to get the meaning across. But I suppose it wouldn't be Milos without the added chilli pepper. What is unseasoned Milos like, actually? One of the smarter ones, in my opinion. But, anyway, if you think need the added seasoning, up to you.Milos wrote: ↑Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:18 amJust a small illustration how ridiculous are your assumptions (regarding Premier Division):chrisw wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:01 amEthereal and Chiron elos are being initialised to their given elo from the previous round plus 50% of the tournament elo gain, where:Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:59 amAbout the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 am40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:
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Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two Ethereal 3374 3334 0.562 0.909 Chiron 3351 3288 0.392 0.835 Fizbo 3301 3287 0.040 0.193 Laser 3247 3226 0.004 0.030 Fritz 3231 3226 0.001 0.014 ChessBrainVB 3247 3279 0.001 0.016 Jonny 3139 3140 0.000 0.000 Booot 3218 3272 0.000 0.002
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Stockfish 3441 3441 0.572 Komodo 3405 3405 0.186 Houdini 3400 3400 0.159 Ethereal 3374 3374 0.055 Chiron 3351 3351 0.019 Fire 3326 3326 0.005 Ginkgo 3322 3322 0.004 Andscacs 3245 3245 0.000
And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
tournament game = sum of [+/-400] / game count including draws
elo = initial elo + 0.5 * tournament gain
The elos of the other six engines are more likely to be problematic (too low, because progress).
Progress is tricky to guess at. At the moment I'ld go for:
Stockfish (++) because worked on continuously and reporting progress
Komodo (+) because worked on, but the side project MCTS may be distracting
Houdini (++) or (+) or (??) because I don't know
Fire (??) no idea at the moment
Andsacs (+) or (++) because worked on
The Monte Carlo rollouts for the Premier are adjusted for the doubled game count (I just checked that I remembered to do that), and that will have effect of increasing the top winning chances for the sim.
http://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.p ... 31#p772531
Okay, so back to boring factuality-land ...
Assumptions are assumptions. Best thing to do with them is make them clear. Well, I try to. Stated already: I don't really know where Fire should be, in relation to the others. Maybe 100pts or so behind the top three, according to the lists. Is that an unfair assumption? Is it being worked on? Gimme data.
As to the relative position of Ethereal. Well, the programmer suggested when I asked, without being committal, IIRC, that it was around 3300 or so, using the CCRL 40 scaling of elos. When Ethereal played Round 4, it got a tournament elo increase of about 70pts, which I factored into its actual elo at 50% and set it at 3335 for Round 3. It ended Round 3 with no change to its tournament given elo. So I put it in this Round at 3334. TCEC chose 3341, not much different.
Ethereal is doing well enough this round, TCEC is giving it currently an elo improvement of +50, and my algorithm says something similar. If promoted and all else stays equal, my elo-giving algorithm will probably start Ethereal off at 3360 in Premier Division.
So, like I said in the previous post, which it looks like you didn't actually carefully read:
"The elos of the other six engines are more likely to be problematic (too low, because progress)."
If you want to suggest a rough figure for Fire, including a "worked on" estimate, feel free, I am all ears.