CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

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chrisw
Posts: 1733
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:18 pm

sim predictions for CCCC first round (Rapid Rumble), after 93 rounds, using elos taken from CCCC list.
(some features not implemented yet, and still using TCEC tiebreak rules, will fix that soonishly)

Code: Select all

Engine     Tournament Initial  First   Second  Third   Fourth  Fifth   Sixth   Seventh Eighth
Stockfish      3439   3439     0.448   0.305   0.148   0.056   0.026   0.010   0.004   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Komodo         3404   3404     0.365   0.317   0.180   0.074   0.038   0.015   0.006   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Houdini        3400   3400     0.133   0.227   0.290   0.183   0.077   0.043   0.024   0.011   0.008   0.003   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Fire           3326   3326     0.020   0.054   0.118   0.177   0.183   0.148   0.112   0.071   0.057   0.032   0.016   0.007   0.003   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Shredder       3287   3287     0.017   0.036   0.083   0.132   0.168   0.154   0.131   0.139   0.048   0.039   0.025   0.015   0.006   0.003   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Lc0            3300   3300     0.006   0.025   0.070   0.150   0.141   0.151   0.142   0.096   0.094   0.059   0.032   0.016   0.008   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Ethereal       3283   3283     0.006   0.022   0.063   0.096   0.163   0.166   0.145   0.109   0.096   0.061   0.035   0.019   0.010   0.005   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000
Andscacs       3244   3244     0.002   0.003   0.010   0.031   0.035   0.058   0.087   0.139   0.124   0.139   0.122   0.089   0.061   0.038   0.024   0.016   0.008   0.005   0.003   0.001   0.002   0.001   0.000   0.000
Fizbo          3259   3259     0.001   0.005   0.018   0.047   0.070   0.099   0.125   0.131   0.153   0.125   0.090   0.057   0.034   0.020   0.011   0.006   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000
Booot          3276   3276     0.001   0.004   0.016   0.041   0.071   0.100   0.122   0.129   0.151   0.127   0.093   0.058   0.035   0.022   0.012   0.007   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.001   0.001   0.000   0.000   0.000
Laser          3226   3226     0.000   0.001   0.003   0.008   0.018   0.034   0.053   0.072   0.112   0.141   0.149   0.124   0.092   0.066   0.045   0.029   0.022   0.013   0.008   0.004   0.004   0.002   0.001   0.000
Nirvana        3186   3186     0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.003   0.006   0.013   0.033   0.035   0.061   0.091   0.122   0.133   0.117   0.101   0.073   0.065   0.048   0.035   0.021   0.021   0.012   0.005   0.000
Gull           3184   3184     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.006   0.013   0.020   0.041   0.065   0.095   0.120   0.126   0.118   0.100   0.077   0.066   0.049   0.037   0.028   0.018   0.011   0.005   0.000
Fritz          3200   3200     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.003   0.007   0.013   0.023   0.042   0.068   0.097   0.101   0.139   0.124   0.102   0.077   0.065   0.047   0.033   0.021   0.019   0.012   0.005   0.000
Xiphos         3179   3179     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.004   0.007   0.016   0.031   0.051   0.077   0.094   0.107   0.110   0.083   0.108   0.088   0.068   0.051   0.046   0.033   0.019   0.002
Nemorino       3099   3099     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.001   0.010   0.005   0.012   0.024   0.048   0.056   0.078   0.094   0.099   0.108   0.106   0.097   0.077   0.080   0.061   0.037   0.005
Texel          3144   3144     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.004   0.009   0.019   0.031   0.048   0.066   0.082   0.089   0.105   0.108   0.107   0.121   0.081   0.070   0.049   0.008
Ivanhoe        3115   3115     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.004   0.010   0.019   0.039   0.044   0.063   0.078   0.088   0.102   0.106   0.106   0.089   0.098   0.083   0.059   0.009
Senpai         3112   3112     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.003   0.007   0.015   0.026   0.038   0.055   0.071   0.082   0.098   0.105   0.109   0.096   0.109   0.096   0.074   0.015
Vajolet        3101   3101     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.005   0.012   0.022   0.032   0.047   0.063   0.142   0.065   0.086   0.097   0.097   0.114   0.108   0.087   0.018
Pedone         3090   3090     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.003   0.007   0.015   0.023   0.035   0.051   0.062   0.080   0.097   0.113   0.156   0.114   0.118   0.101   0.022
Wasp           3041   3041     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.007   0.008   0.015   0.024   0.034   0.050   0.069   0.093   0.132   0.135   0.172   0.199   0.058
Arasan         3123   3123     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.003   0.006   0.008   0.015   0.024   0.033   0.048   0.065   0.087   0.097   0.139   0.175   0.224   0.074
Crafty         3013   3013     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.001   0.002   0.004   0.008   0.018   0.045   0.133   0.787

frankp
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2006 2:11 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by frankp » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:11 pm

that should help fill out the chess.com 'guess the final positions' competition :wink: .

Out of interest, how did you score the two lc0 adjudicated games (for example, there were other crashes too), in terms of the chess performance to aid the prediction: +1 against ivanhoe and 0.5 gull?
I guess predicting crashes is harder.
Some surprising finishing places compared to the current table.
After 94 games (I am watching game 95 now).
Still many days to go yet.

chrisw
Posts: 1733
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:56 pm

frankp wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:11 pm
that should help fill out the chess.com 'guess the final positions' competition :wink: .

Out of interest, how did you score the two lc0 adjudicated games (for example, there were other crashes too), in terms of the chess performance to aid the prediction: +1 against ivanhoe and 0.5 gull?
I guess predicting crashes is harder.
Some surprising finishing places compared to the current table.
After 94 games (I am watching game 95 now).
Still many days to go yet.
I got the results from directly parsing the CCCC schedule, so if that doesn't account for crashes and so on, neither will mine (at the moment).
The sim code is a hacked version of the TCEC sim code where I had to completely change the input data parser (the TCEC code was written to read the TCEC cross table, then hacked to read the new format beta cross table, then completely changed to read CCCC because their cross table doesn't let me get at the formatting very easily.
So, it may be a bit broken at the moment. Will check for weirdnesses ....

chrisw
Posts: 1733
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:02 am

sim predictions for CCCC first round (Rapid Rumble), after 123 rounds, using elos taken from CCCC list.

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Komodo      3455  3404   0.37 0.26 0.19 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3449  3400   0.28 0.28 0.22 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3446  3439   0.23 0.27 0.25 0.17 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3405  3287   0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.16 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3373  3326   0.01 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.34 0.21 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3348  3300   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.32 0.17 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3318  3276   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3291  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.18 0.21 0.17 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3263  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3277  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3270  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3168  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3191  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3206  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3235  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3203  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3211  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3149  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.25 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3111  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.34 0.16 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00
Nemorino    3059  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.01
Senpai      3063  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.24 0.22 0.16 0.01
Wasp        3040  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.25 0.21 0.01
Nirvana     3048  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.17 0.25 0.39 0.03
Crafty      2915  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.93

JJJ
Posts: 1277
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:47 am

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by JJJ » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:53 am

lc0 has still chance to finish first. Also Komodo and Houdini are on part to be first, I would say 50/50. Stockfish might finished first as well. Fire and Shredder won't hold for long. So I disagree with your simulation.

To me it's 25% for Stockfish Houdini Komodo and Lc0 and perhaps a little less for Lc0.

chrisw
Posts: 1733
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:32 pm

JJJ wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:53 am
lc0 has still chance to finish first. Also Komodo and Houdini are on part to be first, I would say 50/50. Stockfish might finished first as well. Fire and Shredder won't hold for long. So I disagree with your simulation.

To me it's 25% for Stockfish Houdini Komodo and Lc0 and perhaps a little less for Lc0.
Could be. I can't do much more than splatter (formulaically randomise) the results of games between X and Y according to their elo ratings. Thus the intial elos (given from the CCCC listings) and the tournament elo adjustments are critical. For example, Shredder is right at the top in performance, but the sim marks it down because the start elo is quite low wrt top three. Maybe I should increase the influence of the tournament elo, but I need to make sure there aren't any errors in the algorithm or my coding first.

JJJ
Posts: 1277
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:47 am

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by JJJ » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:03 pm

Yes I think it would be a good idea.
Is Shredder update ? If it is, his elo might be underated.

frankp
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2006 2:11 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by frankp » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Shredder has yet to play any of the top four, discounting itself of course.
So the real 4C table is probably still unstable - from an uncertainty viewpoint.
Ditto leela, komodo and houdini to a lesser extent.

Milos
Posts: 3372
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:47 am

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Milos » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:51 pm

chrisw wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:02 am
sim predictions for CCCC first round (Rapid Rumble), after 123 rounds, using elos taken from CCCC list.

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Komodo      3455  3404   0.37 0.26 0.19 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3449  3400   0.28 0.28 0.22 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3446  3439   0.23 0.27 0.25 0.17 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3405  3287   0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.16 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3373  3326   0.01 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.34 0.21 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3348  3300   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.32 0.17 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3318  3276   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3291  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.18 0.21 0.17 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3263  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3277  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3270  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3168  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3191  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3206  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3235  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3203  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3211  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3149  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.25 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3111  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.34 0.16 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00
Nemorino    3059  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.01
Senpai      3063  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.24 0.22 0.16 0.01
Wasp        3040  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.25 0.21 0.01
Nirvana     3048  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.17 0.25 0.39 0.03
Crafty      2915  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.93
Based on these results, it seems you are not using any advantage regarding opening side. Shredder only won games with white against 6th and 7th engines and didn't play any of top 5.
And again using tournament rating is just ridiculous. Primer information from CCRL should have at least 90% of weight and games max 10% and that's after the whole tournament.
SF still has at least 50% of chance of finishing first, and H and K around 22%. All other engines combined should be around 6%.

JJJ
Posts: 1277
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:47 am

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by JJJ » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:01 pm

Lc0 still on part with the top 3. I would give lc0 8% to reach top 1. Other engine like fire and shredder doesn't have 2% to me.

Stockfish is still favorite here. But let see !

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