Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.
Moderators: hgm , Rebel , chrisw
chrisw
Posts: 4315 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm
405 rounds
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th....
Stockfish 3456 3439 0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3432 3400 0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3363 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3352 3300 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3310 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3323 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3316 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3299 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3240 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3238 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3198 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3191 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3192 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3180 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3157 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3162 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3120 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3103 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3095 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3046 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana 3010 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty 2961 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:19 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm
405 rounds
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th....
Stockfish 3456 3439 0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3432 3400 0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3363 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3352 3300 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3310 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3323 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3316 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3299 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3240 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3238 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3198 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3191 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3192 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3180 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3157 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3162 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3120 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3103 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3095 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3046 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana 3010 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty 2961 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
I had by "gut feeling" at 19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%
Same "gut feeling" at 36/46:
SF: 55%
Komodo: 35%
Houdini: 10%
I had a pretty tame behavior of expectations from early on to now, late stage. Komodo - Houdini game will be important, but towards the end every game might become important.
Jouni
Posts: 3283 Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:15 pm
Post
by Jouni » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:35 pm
Komodo is rapid player: no losses after 37 games. Note 3 losses after only 16 games in TCEC! Or bad regression with version 2121.01.
Jouni
todd
Posts: 56 Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:09 pm
Post
by todd » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:45 pm
Jouni wrote: ↑ Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:35 pm
Komodo is rapid player: no losses after 37 games. Note 3 losses after only 16 games in TCEC! Or bad regression with version 2121.01.
In CCCC, Ethereal and Lc0 had forced wins against it but did not find them (in Lc0-Komodo, Komodo even reported a win score of +250).
TCEC imbalanced openings also make losses more likely.
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:17 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:19 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm
405 rounds
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th....
Stockfish 3456 3439 0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3432 3400 0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3363 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3352 3300 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3310 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3323 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3316 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3299 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3240 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3238 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3198 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3191 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3192 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3180 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3157 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3162 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3120 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3103 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3095 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3046 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana 3010 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty 2961 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
I had by "gut feeling" at 19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%
Same "gut feeling" at 36/46:
SF: 55%
Komodo: 35%
Houdini: 10%
I had a pretty tame behavior of expectations from early on to now, late stage. Komodo - Houdini game will be important, but towards the end every game might become important.
The things begin to settle a bit, at least for Houdini. In fact a bit overdue, SF would probably had to distance itself a bit by now, if there were no statistical flukes.
37/46
SF: 70%
Komodo: 25%
Houdini: 5%
chrisw
Posts: 4315 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:31 am
Laskos wrote: ↑ Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:17 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:19 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 pm
405 rounds
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th....
Stockfish 3456 3439 0.46 0.42 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.47 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3432 3400 0.07 0.21 0.69 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3363 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.60 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3352 3300 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.33 0.46 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3310 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.25 0.18 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3323 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3316 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.21 0.25 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3299 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.15 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3240 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.58 0.24 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3238 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3198 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.11 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3191 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3192 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.19 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3180 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.37 0.17 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3157 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3162 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.19 0.28 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3120 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3103 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.42 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3095 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 0.61 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3046 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.90 0.07 0.01
Nirvana 3010 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.58 0.37
Crafty 2961 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.35 0.63
I had by "gut feeling" at 19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%
Same "gut feeling" at 36/46:
SF: 55%
Komodo: 35%
Houdini: 10%
I had a pretty tame behavior of expectations from early on to now, late stage. Komodo - Houdini game will be important, but towards the end every game might become important.
The things begin to settle a bit, at least for Houdini. In fact a bit overdue, SF would probably had to distance itself a bit by now, if there were no statistical flukes.
37/46
SF: 70%
Komodo: 25%
Houdini: 5%
first ten or so, correlate closely to the original CCCC prior elos
460 rounds
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3461 3439 0.79 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.20 0.71 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3430 3400 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3365 3326 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3350 3300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3324 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.41 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3315 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3296 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3287 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3236 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.76 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3228 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.41 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3209 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.36 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3191 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3186 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.38 0.25 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3190 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.26 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3168 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3155 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.53 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3109 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.34 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3111 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3079 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3052 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.03 0.00
Nirvana 3018 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.14
Crafty 2960 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.86
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:53 am
chrisw wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:31 am
first ten or so, correlate closely to the original CCCC prior elos
460 rounds
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3461 3439 0.79 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.20 0.71 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3430 3400 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3365 3326 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3350 3300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3324 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.41 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3315 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3296 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3287 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3236 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.76 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3228 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.41 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3209 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.36 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3191 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3186 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.38 0.25 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3190 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.26 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3168 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3155 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.53 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3109 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.34 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3111 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3079 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3052 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.03 0.00
Nirvana 3018 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.14
Crafty 2960 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.86
Yes, and by now our predictions agree well, as expected, although at this stage one would better trust your results, as I am barely considering SB, white-black to play, and other criteria. By now, my "predictions" are SF: 78%, Komodo 20%, Houdini 2%. Very close to your ones, just a bit more compressed. By now your simulations are finally better than my enlightened gut feeling
.
chrisw
Posts: 4315 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:08 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:53 am
chrisw wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:31 am
first ten or so, correlate closely to the original CCCC prior elos
460 rounds
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3461 3439 0.79 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.20 0.71 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3430 3400 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3365 3326 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3350 3300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.61 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3324 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.41 0.28 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3315 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.31 0.30 0.20 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3296 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.12 0.22 0.30 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3287 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.39 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3236 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.76 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3228 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.41 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3209 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.35 0.36 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3191 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.24 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3186 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.20 0.38 0.25 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3173 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.23 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3190 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.46 0.26 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3168 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3155 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.53 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3109 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.48 0.34 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3111 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.30 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3079 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.90 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3052 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.03 0.00
Nirvana 3018 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.84 0.14
Crafty 2960 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.86
Yes, and by now our predictions agree well, as expected, although at this stage one would better trust your results, as I am barely considering SB, white-black to play, and other criteria. By now, my "predictions" are SF: 78%, Komodo 20%, Houdini 2%. Very close to your ones, just a bit more compressed. By now your simulations are finally better than my enlightened gut feeling
.
I never implemented white-black to play weighting (because had to change the code (from TCEC) to read CCCC format and building a black-white history was too much bother)
My first one after 100 rounds or so ...
I'm not going to claim bragging rights because a) the prediction code for the (randomised) result of each game was actually broken and b) as it turns out, the ordering matches very well to the original prior elos and c) the sim changed its mind after some games later and put Stockfish 3rd.
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Initial First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth
Stockfish 3439 3439 0.448 0.305 0.148 0.056 0.026 0.010 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Komodo 3404 3404 0.365 0.317 0.180 0.074 0.038 0.015 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Houdini 3400 3400 0.133 0.227 0.290 0.183 0.077 0.043 0.024 0.011 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Fire 3326 3326 0.020 0.054 0.118 0.177 0.183 0.148 0.112 0.071 0.057 0.032 0.016 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Shredder 3287 3287 0.017 0.036 0.083 0.132 0.168 0.154 0.131 0.139 0.048 0.039 0.025 0.015 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Lc0 3300 3300 0.006 0.025 0.070 0.150 0.141 0.151 0.142 0.096 0.094 0.059 0.032 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Ethereal 3283 3283 0.006 0.022 0.063 0.096 0.163 0.166 0.145 0.109 0.096 0.061 0.035 0.019 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Andscacs 3244 3244 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.031 0.035 0.058 0.087 0.139 0.124 0.139 0.122 0.089 0.061 0.038 0.024 0.016 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000
Fizbo 3259 3259 0.001 0.005 0.018 0.047 0.070 0.099 0.125 0.131 0.153 0.125 0.090 0.057 0.034 0.020 0.011 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
Booot 3276 3276 0.001 0.004 0.016 0.041 0.071 0.100 0.122 0.129 0.151 0.127 0.093 0.058 0.035 0.022 0.012 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:56 am
After 40/46 played, things pretty much clarified. A bit overdue, though, on average.
SF not only has a full point lead, it has a better SB and plays weaker opponents than Komodo in the last 6 games.
So, SF 95% to be first, Komodo 5%.
In the first 8 to go through, Shredder, although 9th, still has some 15-20% chances to go through, otherwise the first 8 will be as they are now.
chrisw
Posts: 4315 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:08 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:56 am
After 40/46 played, things pretty much clarified. A bit overdue, though, on average.
SF not only has a full point lead, it has a better SB and plays weaker opponents than Komodo in the last 6 games.
So, SF 95% to be first, Komodo 5%.
In the first 8 to go through, Shredder, although 9th, still has some 15-20% chances to go through, otherwise the first 8 will be as they are now.
8th place looks relatively even, between Shredder and Andsacs. They are on equal points, but Shredder has a game in hand.
Andsacs has to play Ethereal(6), Booot(7), Arasan(15) and Crafty(24) which is presumably an easier pathway than Shredder has: Komodo(2), Houdini(3), LC0(5), Fritz(12), Nirvana(23)
498 rounds so far
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3467 3439 0.93 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3456 3404 0.07 0.89 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3428 3400 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3356 3300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.43 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3369 3326 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3335 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.71 0.24 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3319 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.59 0.12 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3283 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.50 0.40 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3286 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.35 0.54 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3237 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.69 0.20 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3218 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.49 0.31 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3236 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.29 0.51 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3186 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.67 0.16 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3180 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.50 0.29 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3183 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.30 0.53 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3194 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.67 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3168 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.66 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3155 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13 0.81 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3106 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.80 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3095 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.83 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3068 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.94 0.04 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3048 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93 0.02 0.00
Nirvana 3023 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.95 0.03
Crafty 2961 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.97