CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.

Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw

Werewolf
Posts: 1796
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:24 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Werewolf »

Milos wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:18 am
Laskos wrote: ↑Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:39 pm RTX 2080Ti will probably have the full fp16 support, so it will be much faster than 1080Ti for Lc0, and 2 of these will probably be even more than what CCCC shows for Lc0 (it doesn't scale well to 4 GPUs).
I don't know the source of that nonsense, but 2080Ti doesn't have and will not have FP16 support. That's a fact.
According to wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_N ... _20_series

it has 544 tensor cores, which I thought had a mulifunction FP32/16 ability.

Also the box open on the right suggests there will be support for half precision. And I'm sure I read several review sites which speculated that FP16 was being added, though it might take me a while to find one.
Top
JJJ
Posts: 1346
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:47 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by JJJ »

meanwhile it took 11 round to see the big 3 being top 3 in TCEC. Good for you , you didn't bet at all after all :)
Top
User avatar
Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

Laskos wrote: ↑Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:04 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:31 am CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
LOL

This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.

PS You gave 24% for Ethereal to finish in the first three in the TCEC Premiere Division. Here it seems a bit different story... right?
Wise man, Chris, tell me the result of your "simulations" after 30/46 games were played out. I am deep countryside (you know, in Eastern Europe there are some places which are still true, authentic and splendid countryside) on the phone, sorry for some typos which might appear.

You had after 19/46:
Houdini: 69%
SF: 21%
Komodo: 9%

After 30/46
???


My "gut feeling" is barely oscillating:
19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%

30/46
SF: 60%
Houdini: 20%
Komodo: 20%

I am curious if your "simulations" will start to converge "naturally" to my "gut feeling" towards the end of the tournament, after some wild oscillations.due to the methodology used.
Top
chrisw
Posts: 4315
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw »

Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:48 am
Laskos wrote: ↑Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:04 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:31 am CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
LOL

This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.

PS You gave 24% for Ethereal to finish in the first three in the TCEC Premiere Division. Here it seems a bit different story... right?
Wise man, Chris, tell me the result of your "simulations" after 30/46 games were played out. I am deep countryside (you know, in Eastern Europe there are some places which are still true, authentic and splendid countryside) on the phone, sorry for some typos which might appear.

You had after 19/46:
Houdini: 69%
SF: 21%
Komodo: 9%

After 30/46
???


My "gut feeling" is barely oscillating:
19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%

30/46
SF: 60%
Houdini: 20%
Komodo: 20%

I am curious if your "simulations" will start to converge "naturally" to my "gut feeling" towards the end of the tournament, after some wild oscillations.due to the methodology used.
SF, H and K are the easy ones. One can do those standing on one's head with a gutful of the forest shrooms, Comrade.
Placing the top group for promotion is the difficult part. Likewise placing the ones with problematical initial elos.
Enjoy the wonderful countryside, some of the best in Europe.

Code: Select all

149 rounds

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3447  3400   0.33 0.24 0.19 0.13 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3447  3439   0.29 0.26 0.21 0.14 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3443  3404   0.22 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3395  3287   0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3411  3300   0.07 0.13 0.19 0.25 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3353  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.15 0.35 0.23 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3328  3244   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22 0.33 0.20 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3312  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.22 0.33 0.16 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3255  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.13 0.23 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3258  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3225  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3224  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3236  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3201  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3185  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3167  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3152  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3143  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3136  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.13 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00
Laser       3111  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.16 0.27 0.21 0.11 0.03 0.00
Senpai      3086  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.28 0.27 0.08 0.00
Wasp        3058  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.38 0.15 0.00
Nirvana     3027  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.68 0.04
Crafty      2909  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.95

Code: Select all

199 rounds 

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3471  3400   0.64 0.23 0.10 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3435  3439   0.18 0.35 0.28 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3440  3404   0.14 0.30 0.33 0.16 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3396  3300   0.03 0.10 0.21 0.39 0.18 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3351  3287   0.00 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.34 0.22 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3336  3276   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.29 0.25 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3340  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.27 0.28 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3284  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.28 0.22 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3286  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.26 0.18 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3260  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.19 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3232  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3201  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.19 0.18 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3188  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3187  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3187  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3162  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.13 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3176  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3138  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3119  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.19 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3091  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.27 0.28 0.11 0.01 0.00
Laser       3102  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.24 0.32 0.14 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3058  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.57 0.10 0.02
Crafty      2976  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.51 0.41
Nirvana     2991  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.36 0.57

Code: Select all

249 rounds

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3454  3400   0.57 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3440  3404   0.23 0.36 0.28 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3431  3439   0.17 0.30 0.35 0.12 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3382  3300   0.02 0.06 0.16 0.41 0.21 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3351  3287   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.33 0.25 0.13 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3354  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12 0.26 0.31 0.18 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3328  3276   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.35 0.20 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3311  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.21 0.38 0.18 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3271  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.37 0.21 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3250  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.21 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3218  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.16 0.24 0.18 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3205  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3193  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3184  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3195  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3184  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3160  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3135  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.16 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.32 0.35 0.02 0.00 0.00
Laser       3113  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.27 0.44 0.03 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3021  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.68 0.21 0.07
Crafty      2970  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.46 0.38
Nirvana     2983  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.33 0.56

Code: Select all

299 rounds 

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3444  3400   0.46 0.31 0.19 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3446  3439   0.35 0.37 0.24 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3436  3404   0.18 0.30 0.43 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3366  3300   0.00 0.02 0.09 0.47 0.24 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3347  3287   0.00 0.01 0.04 0.25 0.36 0.21 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3340  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.24 0.35 0.19 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3318  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.35 0.24 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3311  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.24 0.38 0.16 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3268  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.44 0.16 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3227  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.11 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3218  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.11 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3213  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3199  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.13 0.18 0.20 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3177  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3193  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.19 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3187  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3151  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3141  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3152  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.20 0.17 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3113  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.30 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3105  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.24 0.49 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3027  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.71 0.22 0.05
Nirvana     3007  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.55 0.24
Crafty      2962  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.24 0.70

Code: Select all


359 rounds 

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Stockfish   3460  3439   0.53 0.29 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3452  3404   0.27 0.38 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3445  3400   0.20 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3365  3300   0.00 0.00 0.03 0.65 0.20 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3351  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3316  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3336  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3317  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3283  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.51 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3226  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.41 0.27 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3236  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.31 0.33 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3204  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3190  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3188  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3167  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3176  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3177  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3158  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3115  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.29 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3120  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3102  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3023  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.16 0.03
Nirvana     2998  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.41
Crafty      2957  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.38 0.55
Top
User avatar
mclane
Posts: 18748
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 6:40 pm
Location: US of Europe, germany
Full name: Thorsten Czub

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by mclane »

Statistics are for people who do not have a clue about reality.
And statistical prognoses are even before the events happen, what makes them even worse .

I prefer reality. Instead of emulation of events.
What seems like a fairy tale today may be reality tomorrow.
Here we have a fairy tale of the day after tomorrow....
Top
User avatar
Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 pm
CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
SF, H and K are the easy ones. One can do those standing on one's head with a gutful of the forest shrooms, Comrade.
Placing the top group for promotion is the difficult part. Likewise placing the ones with problematical initial elos.
Enjoy the wonderful countryside, some of the best in Europe.


359 rounds

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Stockfish   3460  3439   0.53 0.29 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3452  3404   0.27 0.38 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3445  3400   0.20 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3365  3300   0.00 0.00 0.03 0.65 0.20 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3351  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3316  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3336  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3317  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3283  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.51 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3226  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.41 0.27 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3236  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.31 0.33 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3204  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3190  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3188  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3167  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3176  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3177  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3158  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3115  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.29 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3120  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3102  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3023  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.16 0.03
Nirvana     2998  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.41
Crafty      2957  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.38 0.55
I am a Comrade?
See, wild oscillations from 19/46 to 30/46 in top 3. Lc0 had hardly any serious prior in these new conditions of CCCC, so your simulation is as much as one can get. It's interesting to see Komodo above Houdini by now, probably by performance and SB, which I can hardly gauge with my "gut feeling" in some predictions. I think you gauged it fairly well.

Countryside here is splendid indeed, high on the hills, mountains above (Carpathians). Pic taken by my girlfriend of my house half an hour ago: There are some cows in the grasslands between trees, 200 or so meters away. Pity I have to leave soon, job.

Image
Top
chrisw
Posts: 4315
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by chrisw »

Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:03 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 pm
CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Houdini     3468  3400   0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish   3434  3439   0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3424  3404   0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3361  3287   0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3344  3300   0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3346  3326   0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3332  3276   0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3282  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3248  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3292  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3219  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3178  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3196  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3170  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3243  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3171  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3147  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3185  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3146  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3105  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3093  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai      3041  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty      2973  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana     2989  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
SF, H and K are the easy ones. One can do those standing on one's head with a gutful of the forest shrooms, Comrade.
Placing the top group for promotion is the difficult part. Likewise placing the ones with problematical initial elos.
Enjoy the wonderful countryside, some of the best in Europe.


359 rounds

Code: Select all

Engine Tournament Init   1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th ....
Stockfish   3460  3439   0.53 0.29 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo      3452  3404   0.27 0.38 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini     3445  3400   0.20 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0         3365  3300   0.00 0.00 0.03 0.65 0.20 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire        3351  3326   0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder    3316  3287   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal    3336  3283   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot       3317  3276   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs    3283  3244   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.51 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel       3226  3144   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.41 0.27 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz       3236  3200   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.31 0.33 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos      3204  3179   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone      3190  3090   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet     3188  3101   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan      3167  3123   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull        3176  3184   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo       3177  3259   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser       3158  3226   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp        3115  3041   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.29 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino    3120  3099   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe     3102  3115   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00
Senpai      3023  3112   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.16 0.03
Nirvana     2998  3186   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.41
Crafty      2957  3013   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.38 0.55
I am a Comrade?
See, wild oscillations from 19/46 to 30/46 in top 3. Lc0 had hardly any serious prior in these new conditions of CCCC, so your simulation is as much as one can get. It's interesting to see Komodo above Houdini by now, probably by performance and SB, which I can hardly gauge with my "gut feeling" in some predictions. I think you gauged it fairly well.

Countryside here is splendid indeed, high on the hills, mountains above (Carpathians). Pic taken by my girlfriend of my house half an hour ago: There are some cows in the grasslands between trees, 200 or so meters away. Pity I have to leave soon, job.

Image
One would expect more swings in the ordering statistics the fewer the games played. If the tournament elo weighting was slackened off, then the swings would be dampened but prior elo errors would be less corrected, and, for example, Ethereal, LC0 and Shredder would not be recognised (all of whom seemed to have underestimated prior elos). Swings and roundabouts.
Anyway, as tournament progresses and game count increases it all focuses in on the final result. Barring unexpected events. Just noticed that the sim predicts the eight to go through as the eight highest prior elos.

700 metres? Grass is green.
Top
Milos
Posts: 4190
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:47 am

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Milos »

Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:03 pm Countryside here is splendid indeed, high on the hills, mountains above (Carpathians). Pic taken by my girlfriend of my house half an hour ago: There are some cows in the grasslands between trees, 200 or so meters away. Pity I have to leave soon, job.

Image
Lol, that looks just like my grandma's house that is probably 150-200km south-west from where that picture was taken ;).
Top
User avatar
Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:20 pm

One would expect more swings in the ordering statistics the fewer the games played. If the tournament elo weighting was slackened off, then the swings would be dampened but prior elo errors would be less corrected, and, for example, Ethereal, LC0 and Shredder would not be recognised (all of whom seemed to have underestimated prior elos). Swings and roundabouts.
Anyway, as tournament progresses and game count increases it all focuses in on the final result. Barring unexpected events. Just noticed that the sim predicts the eight to go through as the eight highest prior elos.

700 metres? Grass is green.
With strong CCRL, CEGT, FGRL, IPON priors, the initial swings are small. For top 3 we have pretty good priors. Barely any prior for Lc0 in these particular conditions (although I suspected it would behave fairly similarly to what I am getting on my desktop, on a much smaller scale), somewhat weak pror on Ethereal (but still close to what I expected, a bit above Andscacs). Still, the "gut feeling", even by this late part of the tournament, is of some use, and still shows stability for top 3.


19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%

33/46
SF: 60%
Komodo: 25%
Houdini: 15%

But soon a game like Komodo - Houdini can change suddenly results and simulations will become more relevant.

Btw, you might be better at evaluating altitudes than evaluating the first to finish in CCCC :lol:
About 670 meters altitude, close-by is a pathway to the nearby 950 meter hill top, then the 2,000+ meter mountain peak is much further away, some 3 hours walk ascending.
Last edited by Laskos on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Top
User avatar
Laskos
Posts: 10948
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos

Re: CCCC Rapid Rumble results simulator

Post by Laskos »

Milos wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:42 pm
Lol, that looks just like my grandma's house that is probably 150-200km south-west from where that picture was taken ;).
It is quite an old house, mostly uninhabited, we (me and my girlfriend) stay in it only some periods during the Summer, some odd days during other seasons. So, first hour or two after arrival we have to bring it to life :D.
Top

Return to “Computer Chess Club: General Topics”