Discussion of anything and everything relating to chess playing software and machines.
Moderators: hgm , Rebel , chrisw
Werewolf
Posts: 1796 Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:24 pm
Post
by Werewolf » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:04 am
Milos wrote: ↑ Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:18 am
Laskos wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:39 pm
RTX 2080Ti will probably have the full fp16 support, so it will be much faster than 1080Ti for Lc0, and 2 of these will probably be even more than what CCCC shows for Lc0 (it doesn't scale well to 4 GPUs).
I don't know the source of that nonsense, but 2080Ti doesn't have and will not have FP16 support. That's a fact.
According to wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_N ... _20_series
it has 544 tensor cores, which I thought had a mulifunction FP32/16 ability.
Also the box open on the right suggests there will be support for half precision. And I'm sure I read several review sites which speculated that FP16 was being added, though it might take me a while to find one.
JJJ
Posts: 1346 Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2014 1:47 pm
Post
by JJJ » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:35 am
meanwhile it took 11 round to see the big 3 being top 3 in TCEC. Good for you , you didn't bet at all after all
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:48 am
Laskos wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:04 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:31 am
CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3468 3400 0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3434 3439 0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3424 3404 0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3361 3287 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3344 3300 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3346 3326 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3332 3276 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3282 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3248 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3292 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3219 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3178 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3196 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3170 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3243 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3171 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3147 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3185 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3146 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3105 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3093 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai 3041 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty 2973 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana 2989 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
LOL
This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.
PS You gave 24% for Ethereal to finish in the first three in the TCEC Premiere Division. Here it seems a bit different story... right?
Wise man, Chris, tell me the result of your "simulations" after 30/46 games were played out. I am deep countryside (you know, in Eastern Europe there are some places which are still true, authentic and splendid countryside) on the phone, sorry for some typos which might appear.
You had after 19/46:
Houdini: 69%
SF: 21%
Komodo: 9%
After 30/46
???
My "gut feeling" is barely oscillating:
19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%
30/46
SF: 60%
Houdini: 20%
Komodo: 20%
I am curious if your "simulations" will start to converge "naturally" to my "gut feeling" towards the end of the tournament, after some wild oscillations.due to the methodology used.
chrisw
Posts: 4317 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:48 am
Laskos wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:04 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:31 am
CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3468 3400 0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3434 3439 0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3424 3404 0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3361 3287 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3344 3300 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3346 3326 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3332 3276 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3282 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3248 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3292 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3219 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3178 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3196 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3170 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3243 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3171 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3147 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3185 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3146 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3105 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3093 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai 3041 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty 2973 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana 2989 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
LOL
This is practically the current standing after 19/46 games each engine played. Houdini is 1 point ahead of SF, and 1.5 ahead of Komodo. And you give 69%, 21%, 9% to finish first respectively?? According to you, you should give me 2:1 if I bet against Houdini. My "gut feeling": 50% SF, 30% Houdini, 18% Komodo, 2% other. If I give you 1:1 against Houdini, will it make a deal? It is much better deal for you than 2:1 you predict.
PS You gave 24% for Ethereal to finish in the first three in the TCEC Premiere Division. Here it seems a bit different story... right?
Wise man, Chris, tell me the result of your "simulations" after 30/46 games were played out. I am deep countryside (you know, in Eastern Europe there are some places which are still true, authentic and splendid countryside) on the phone, sorry for some typos which might appear.
You had after 19/46:
Houdini: 69%
SF: 21%
Komodo: 9%
After 30/46
???
My "gut feeling" is barely oscillating:
19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%
30/46
SF: 60%
Houdini: 20%
Komodo: 20%
I am curious if your "simulations" will start to converge "naturally" to my "gut feeling" towards the end of the tournament, after some wild oscillations.due to the methodology used.
SF, H and K are the easy ones. One can do those standing on one's head with a gutful of the forest shrooms, Comrade.
Placing the top group for promotion is the difficult part. Likewise placing the ones with problematical initial elos.
Enjoy the wonderful countryside, some of the best in Europe.
Code: Select all
149 rounds
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3447 3400 0.33 0.24 0.19 0.13 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3447 3439 0.29 0.26 0.21 0.14 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3443 3404 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3395 3287 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3411 3300 0.07 0.13 0.19 0.25 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3353 3326 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.15 0.35 0.23 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3328 3244 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.22 0.33 0.20 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3312 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.22 0.33 0.16 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3255 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.13 0.23 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3258 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3225 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3224 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3236 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3201 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3185 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3167 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3152 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3143 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3136 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.13 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00
Laser 3111 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.16 0.27 0.21 0.11 0.03 0.00
Senpai 3086 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.28 0.27 0.08 0.00
Wasp 3058 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.38 0.15 0.00
Nirvana 3027 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.68 0.04
Crafty 2909 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.95
Code: Select all
199 rounds
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3471 3400 0.64 0.23 0.10 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3435 3439 0.18 0.35 0.28 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3440 3404 0.14 0.30 0.33 0.16 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3396 3300 0.03 0.10 0.21 0.39 0.18 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3351 3287 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.34 0.22 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3336 3276 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.18 0.29 0.25 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3340 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.27 0.28 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3284 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.28 0.22 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3286 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.26 0.18 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3260 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.19 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3232 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3201 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.19 0.18 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3188 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3187 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3187 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3162 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.13 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3176 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3138 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3119 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.24 0.19 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3091 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.27 0.28 0.11 0.01 0.00
Laser 3102 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.24 0.32 0.14 0.01 0.00
Senpai 3058 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.57 0.10 0.02
Crafty 2976 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.51 0.41
Nirvana 2991 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.36 0.57
Code: Select all
249 rounds
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3454 3400 0.57 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3440 3404 0.23 0.36 0.28 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3431 3439 0.17 0.30 0.35 0.12 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3382 3300 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.41 0.21 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3351 3287 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.33 0.25 0.13 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3354 3326 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12 0.26 0.31 0.18 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3328 3276 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.35 0.20 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3311 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.21 0.38 0.18 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3271 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.37 0.21 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3250 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.21 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3218 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.16 0.24 0.18 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3205 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3193 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3184 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3195 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3184 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3160 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.12 0.06 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3147 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3135 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.16 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3105 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.32 0.35 0.02 0.00 0.00
Laser 3113 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.27 0.44 0.03 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3021 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.68 0.21 0.07
Crafty 2970 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.46 0.38
Nirvana 2983 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.33 0.56
Code: Select all
299 rounds
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3444 3400 0.46 0.31 0.19 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3446 3439 0.35 0.37 0.24 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3436 3404 0.18 0.30 0.43 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3366 3300 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.47 0.24 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3347 3287 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.25 0.36 0.21 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3340 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.24 0.35 0.19 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3318 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.35 0.24 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3311 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.24 0.38 0.16 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3268 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.19 0.44 0.16 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3227 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.11 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3218 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.25 0.22 0.17 0.11 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3213 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3199 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.13 0.18 0.20 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3177 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3193 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.19 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3187 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3151 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.14 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3141 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3152 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.20 0.17 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3113 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.30 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3105 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.24 0.49 0.02 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3027 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.71 0.22 0.05
Nirvana 3007 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.55 0.24
Crafty 2962 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.24 0.70
Code: Select all
359 rounds
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Stockfish 3460 3439 0.53 0.29 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3452 3404 0.27 0.38 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3445 3400 0.20 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3365 3300 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.65 0.20 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3351 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3316 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3336 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3317 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3283 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.51 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3226 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.41 0.27 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3236 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.31 0.33 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3204 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3190 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3188 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3167 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3176 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3177 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3158 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3115 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.29 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3120 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3102 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3023 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.16 0.03
Nirvana 2998 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.41
Crafty 2957 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.38 0.55
mclane
Posts: 18749 Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 6:40 pm
Location: US of Europe, germany
Full name: Thorsten Czub
Post
by mclane » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:42 pm
Statistics are for people who do not have a clue about reality.
And statistical prognoses are even before the events happen, what makes them even worse .
I prefer reality. Instead of emulation of events.
What seems like a fairy tale today may be reality tomorrow.
Here we have a fairy tale of the day after tomorrow....
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:03 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 pm
CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3468 3400 0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3434 3439 0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3424 3404 0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3361 3287 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3344 3300 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3346 3326 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3332 3276 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3282 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3248 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3292 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3219 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3178 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3196 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3170 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3243 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3171 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3147 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3185 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3146 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3105 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3093 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai 3041 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty 2973 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana 2989 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
SF, H and K are the easy ones. One can do those standing on one's head with a gutful of the forest shrooms, Comrade.
Placing the top group for promotion is the difficult part. Likewise placing the ones with problematical initial elos.
Enjoy the wonderful countryside, some of the best in Europe.
359 rounds
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Stockfish 3460 3439 0.53 0.29 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3452 3404 0.27 0.38 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3445 3400 0.20 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3365 3300 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.65 0.20 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3351 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3316 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3336 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3317 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3283 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.51 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3226 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.41 0.27 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3236 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.31 0.33 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3204 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3190 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3188 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3167 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3176 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3177 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3158 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3115 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.29 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3120 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3102 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3023 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.16 0.03
Nirvana 2998 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.41
Crafty 2957 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.38 0.55
I am a Comrade?
See, wild oscillations from 19/46 to 30/46 in top 3. Lc0 had hardly any serious prior in these new conditions of CCCC, so your simulation is as much as one can get. It's interesting to see Komodo above Houdini by now, probably by performance and SB, which I can hardly gauge with my "gut feeling" in some predictions. I think you gauged it fairly well.
Countryside here is splendid indeed, high on the hills, mountains above (Carpathians). Pic taken by my girlfriend of my house half an hour ago: There are some cows in the grasslands between trees, 200 or so meters away. Pity I have to leave soon, job.
chrisw
Posts: 4317 Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Post
by chrisw » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:20 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:03 pm
chrisw wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 pm
CCCC results predictor 220 rounds so far
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Houdini 3468 3400 0.69 0.22 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stockfish 3434 3439 0.21 0.45 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3424 3404 0.09 0.27 0.43 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3361 3287 0.01 0.04 0.14 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3344 3300 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.17 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3346 3326 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3332 3276 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3282 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.26 0.25 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3248 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.21 0.23 0.16 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3292 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3219 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.19 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3178 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3196 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3170 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3243 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.17 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3171 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3147 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3185 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3146 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.22 0.17 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3105 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3093 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.25 0.44 0.08 0.01 0.00
Senpai 3041 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.68 0.15 0.04
Crafty 2973 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.47 0.42
Nirvana 2989 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.37 0.54
SF, H and K are the easy ones. One can do those standing on one's head with a gutful of the forest shrooms, Comrade.
Placing the top group for promotion is the difficult part. Likewise placing the ones with problematical initial elos.
Enjoy the wonderful countryside, some of the best in Europe.
359 rounds
Code: Select all
Engine Tournament Init 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th ....
Stockfish 3460 3439 0.53 0.29 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Komodo 3452 3404 0.27 0.38 0.34 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houdini 3445 3400 0.20 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lc0 3365 3300 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.65 0.20 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fire 3351 3326 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.11 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shredder 3316 3287 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.17 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ethereal 3336 3283 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.19 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Booot 3317 3276 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.35 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andscacs 3283 3244 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.22 0.51 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Texel 3226 3144 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.41 0.27 0.13 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fritz 3236 3200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.31 0.33 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Xiphos 3204 3179 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pedone 3190 3090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.19 0.25 0.21 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vajolet 3188 3101 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.24 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arasan 3167 3123 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.25 0.20 0.14 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gull 3176 3184 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fizbo 3177 3259 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Laser 3158 3226 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.15 0.21 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wasp 3115 3041 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.29 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemorino 3120 3099 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivanhoe 3102 3115 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.21 0.59 0.01 0.00 0.00
Senpai 3023 3112 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.16 0.03
Nirvana 2998 3186 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.46 0.41
Crafty 2957 3013 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.38 0.55
I am a Comrade?
See, wild oscillations from 19/46 to 30/46 in top 3. Lc0 had hardly any serious prior in these new conditions of CCCC, so your simulation is as much as one can get. It's interesting to see Komodo above Houdini by now, probably by performance and SB, which I can hardly gauge with my "gut feeling" in some predictions. I think you gauged it fairly well.
Countryside here is splendid indeed, high on the hills, mountains above (Carpathians). Pic taken by my girlfriend of my house half an hour ago: There are some cows in the grasslands between trees, 200 or so meters away. Pity I have to leave soon, job.
One would expect more swings in the ordering statistics the fewer the games played. If the tournament elo weighting was slackened off, then the swings would be dampened but prior elo errors would be less corrected, and, for example, Ethereal, LC0 and Shredder would not be recognised (all of whom seemed to have underestimated prior elos). Swings and roundabouts.
Anyway, as tournament progresses and game count increases it all focuses in on the final result. Barring unexpected events. Just noticed that the sim predicts the eight to go through as the eight highest prior elos.
700 metres? Grass is green.
Milos
Posts: 4190 Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:47 am
Post
by Milos » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:42 pm
Laskos wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:03 pm
Countryside here is splendid indeed, high on the hills, mountains above (Carpathians). Pic taken by my girlfriend of my house half an hour ago: There are some cows in the grasslands between trees, 200 or so meters away. Pity I have to leave soon, job.
Lol, that looks just like my grandma's house that is probably 150-200km south-west from where that picture was taken
.
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
Post
by Laskos » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:49 am
chrisw wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:20 pm
One would expect more swings in the ordering statistics the fewer the games played. If the tournament elo weighting was slackened off, then the swings would be dampened but prior elo errors would be less corrected, and, for example, Ethereal, LC0 and Shredder would not be recognised (all of whom seemed to have underestimated prior elos). Swings and roundabouts.
Anyway, as tournament progresses and game count increases it all focuses in on the final result. Barring unexpected events. Just noticed that the sim predicts the eight to go through as the eight highest prior elos.
700 metres? Grass is green.
With strong CCRL, CEGT, FGRL, IPON priors, the initial swings are small. For top 3 we have pretty good priors. Barely any prior for Lc0 in these particular conditions (although I suspected it would behave fairly similarly to what I am getting on my desktop, on a much smaller scale), somewhat weak pror on Ethereal (but still close to what I expected, a bit above Andscacs). Still, the "gut feeling", even by this late part of the tournament, is of some use, and still shows stability for top 3.
19/46
SF: 50%
Houdini: 30%
Komodo: 18%
33/46
SF: 60%
Komodo: 25%
Houdini: 15%
But soon a game like Komodo - Houdini can change suddenly results and simulations will become more relevant.
Btw, you might be better at evaluating altitudes than evaluating the first to finish in CCCC
About 670 meters altitude, close-by is a pathway to the nearby 950 meter hill top, then the 2,000+ meter mountain peak is much further away, some 3 hours walk ascending.
Last edited by Laskos on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Laskos
Posts: 10948 Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
Full name: Kai Laskos
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by Laskos » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:58 am
Milos wrote: ↑ Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:42 pm
Lol, that looks just like my grandma's house that is probably 150-200km south-west from where that picture was taken
.
It is quite an old house, mostly uninhabited, we (me and my girlfriend) stay in it only some periods during the Summer, some odd days during other seasons. So, first hour or two after arrival we have to bring it to life
.