" End of an Era" is coming?

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Nay Lin Tun
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" End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:23 am

https://ibb.co/Qd6LTtT
Today, I saw Leela vs SF on bonus game where new 30xxx nets start beating SF in small sample size.( specs, 24 cores CPU vs 2x 2070Ti, I think)

Current score:: 10.5 vs 9.5 ,in favour of Leela.

So, the rumour about " End of an Era" is a possibility in the near future.

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AdminX
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by AdminX » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:48 am

Time defeats everything that comes it's way. Question is 'How long will the new king reign?' and 'Who will it be?' :D
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Jouni
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Jouni » Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:03 am

Stockfish domination is getting boring now. SF has won ALL serious tournaments in last 2-3 years :!:. No prizes to quess winner in TCEC 14 or CCC 3.
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Nay Lin Tun
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:50 am

So far, so good! The results are more and more in favour of LCO.
(Correction, SF is on 24 threads, 12 cores)

13.5vs 11.5, Elo difference +28 elo +/- 140 elo error bar.
https://bonus.tcecbeta.club/
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corres
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by corres » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:58 am

Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:50 am
So far, so good! The results are more and more in favour of LCO.
(Correction, SF is on 24 threads, 12 cores)

13.5vs 11.5, Elo difference +28 elo +/- 140 elo error bar.
The results reflect the difference in the power of hardware too.
Moreover the short time control is favorable for Leela.

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emadsen
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by emadsen » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:48 pm

Current score:: 10.5 vs 9.5 ,in favour of Leela... End of an Era.
I'm amused by the vastly different level of rigor for developers and fans. Twenty games is good enough for some fans, ha ha.
My C# chess engine: http://www.madchess.net

Damir
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Damir » Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:00 pm

Hi Erik

It is actually 40 games.... :) :) Nevertheless still too few games to find the winner. 400 is a more realistic number…. :D :D

Nay Lin Tun
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:34 pm

I use this formula for elo error bar, +/- 700/ square root of number of games.



For 100 games, there is +/- 70 elo err bar.
For 10000 games, there is +/-7 elo error bar.

If there is significant elo difference between two engines, like +1000 elo, a single game is pretty enough to tell who is better. (>95% chance that the stronger one will beat the weaker one in a single game). Many games are necessary only when the strength of two engines are very close though.

Btw, pgn is here, https://tcecbonus.club/event.pgn

Nay Lin Tun
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:38 pm

Update, 18.5 vs 15.5 in favour of leela. +31 elo with +/- 120 error bar.
With more and more games, elo gap is wider and error bar is smaller.
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Damir
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Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Damir » Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:02 pm

seems like crap line for Leela now… is losing after 4 moves…..

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