" End of an Era" is coming?

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Kanizsa
Posts: 32
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Location: Rialto, Venice

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Kanizsa » Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:51 am

Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:46 am
And the newer nets are getting stronger day by day, may be +30 to +50 elo.
I don't believe in this progression.
Elo growth is not deterministic, but for sure not 30-50 Elo points daily

Nay Lin Tun
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:34 am

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:36 am

Kanizsa wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:51 am
Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:46 am
And the newer nets are getting stronger day by day, may be +30 to +50 elo.
I don't believe in this progression.
Elo growth is not deterministic, but for sure not 30-50 Elo points daily
Sorry, bad English.
I did not mean 30 to 50 elo, day by day. (30 to 50 in comparison with the old one playing in TCEC). And new nets are still getting stronger day by day. Yeah in lucky day 2-3 elo at most, but bad nets and good nets are fluctuating.

Jouni
Posts: 1953
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 7:15 pm

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Jouni » Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:45 pm

Lc0 32425 loses first game in CCC3 stage 3 for Stockfish in endgame with 4x RTX 2080ti. I bet we can safely wait until 2020- before new era!
Jouni

yanquis1972
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Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:14 pm

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by yanquis1972 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:51 pm

Test35 (smallnet) has had its final LR drop after 250k steps. It should be interesting to see how it performs at fast TC (blitz/bullet or faster depending on hw) in a day or two. Possibly telling wrt test40 as well.

Nay Lin Tun
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:34 am

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:53 pm

Well, this is end of an era for Houdini and Komodo.
This mean Leela become 99.9% best engine within a year!
Beating SF will become 100%.
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corres
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Location: hungary

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by corres » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:14 am

Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:53 pm
...
This mean Leela become 99.9% best engine within a year!
Beating SF will become 100%.
Especially they will use more powerful hardware for Leela.
But if the clock speed of CPU would increase 3-4 times (as the power of the NIDIA cards)
Stockfish could keep his advantage.

yanquis1972
Posts: 1762
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:14 pm

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by yanquis1972 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:52 am

corres wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:14 am
Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:53 pm
...
This mean Leela become 99.9% best engine within a year!
Beating SF will become 100%.
Especially they will use more powerful hardware for Leela.
But if the clock speed of CPU would increase 3-4 times (as the power of the NIDIA cards)
Stockfish could keep his advantage.
I think with the pressure (superiority?) from AMD 2x speed every 2 years is reasonable. GPU-side nvidia essentially has a monopoly on consumer cards and sets the pace of their choice (fortunately not to the extent intel did since the i7 was introduced).

The speedup in nps from 10-20 series was essentially coincidental and won’t be the norm. It’s even possible future non-Ti or even Titan cards will be nerfed if the instructions don’t yield benefits in gaming.

Uri Blass
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Location: Tel-Aviv Israel

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Uri Blass » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:15 am

Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:53 pm
Well, this is end of an era for Houdini and Komodo.
This mean Leela become 99.9% best engine within a year!
Beating SF will become 100%.
I do not understand how do you calculate it.

SF may improve in the next year and same for komodo and houdini.
Last edited by Uri Blass on Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

corres
Posts: 1259
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:41 am
Location: hungary

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by corres » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:16 am

yanquis1972 wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:52 am
corres wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:14 am
Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:53 pm
...
This mean Leela become 99.9% best engine within a year!
Beating SF will become 100%.
Especially they will use more powerful hardware for Leela.
But if the clock speed of CPU would increase 3-4 times (as the power of the NIDIA cards)
Stockfish could keep his advantage.
I think with the pressure (superiority?) from AMD 2x speed every 2 years is reasonable. GPU-side nvidia essentially has a monopoly on consumer cards and sets the pace of their choice (fortunately not to the extent intel did since the i7 was introduced).

The speedup in nps from 10-20 series was essentially coincidental and won’t be the norm. It’s even possible future non-Ti or even Titan cards will be nerfed if the instructions don’t yield benefits in gaming.
The advantage of AMD arises from the cheaper processors.
The growth in frequency is minimal. From the more cores the AB type chess programs get profit only a small.
It was obvious at the time of the announcement of AlphaZero this technique will be the beneficiary of the graphic card higher core numbers. The building of tensor cores into the cards enhances further the benefit.

Nay Lin Tun
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2012 5:34 am

Re: " End of an Era" is coming?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:17 am

Jouni wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:45 pm
Lc0 32425 loses first game in CCC3 stage 3 for Stockfish in endgame with 4x RTX 2080ti. I bet we can safely wait until 2020- before new era!
You cant safely wait until 2020.

Leela is biting back stockfish now!!
Head to Head, equal result now!
:P :evil: :twisted: :roll:
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