refuted opening lines
Posted: Sat Jul 27, 2019 9:46 am
It may be interesting how many common opening lines are refuted by ananlysis of chess engines
For this discussion refuted means evaluation of more than 1.5 pawns for one side after long analysis by stockfish with contempt 0(more than 3,000,000,000 nodes) so probably losing the game
common means that history of games shows at least 10% probability of playing every move for the loser and that humans played every move in the line of the loser at least 10 times in history.
First line(statistics is based on chesstempo site when first number is number of cases move of black is played from the relevant position and second number is number of time the position before black's move appeared on the board).
I do not think that chesstempo is the best to generate the statistics and if somebody has a pgn of human games when it is easy to find statistics from it then it may be better to continue from it.
1.e4 c5 (755294 games out of 1738140 so common)
2.Nf3 d6 (238130 games out of 581989 so common)
3.d4 cxd4 (179738 games out of 187428 so very common)
4.Nxd4 Nf6 (167472 games out of 170275 so very common)
5.Nc3 a6 (101933 games out of 171411)
6.Bg5 e6 (18863 out of 23420)
7.f4 Be7 (5756 out of 16163)
8.Qf3 Qc7 (3862 out of 5559)
9.0-0-0 Nbd7(3054 out of 3816)
10.g4 b5(2050 out of 2566)
11.Bxf6 Nxf6(1548 out of 1925)
12.g5 Nd7(1513 out of 1513)
13.f5 Bxg5+(542 out of 1197)
14.Kb1 Ne5 (438 out of 541)
15.Qh5 Qd8(221 out of 426)
16.h4 Bf6(57 out of 57)
17.fxe6 0-0(45 out of 55)
18.Bh3 fxe6(20 out of 46)
19.Bxe6+ Kh8(19 out of 19)
20.Nd5 Nc4(13 out of 30)
and now stockfish(contempt 0) suggest that white is winning
[d]r1bq1r1k/6pp/p2pBb2/1p1N3Q/2nNP2P/8/PPP5/1K1R3R w - - 3 21
Stockfish_19072603_x64_modern:
1/1 00:00 279 140k +3.75 21.Nxf6 gxf6
2/2 00:00 859 430k +4.17 21.Nc6 Bxe6 22.Nxd8 Raxd8
3/3 00:00 1k 520k +4.17 21.Nc6 Bxe6 22.Nxd8
4/6 00:00 2k 819k +6.16 21.Nf4 h6 22.Ng6+ Kh7 23.Nxf8+ Qxf8
5/7 00:00 3k 1,010k +5.08 21.Nf4 h6 22.Bd5 Bxd4 23.Ng6+ Kh7
6/8 00:00 5k 1,310k +2.21 21.Nc6 g6 22.Nxd8 gxh5 23.Nf7+ Rxf7 24.Bxf7
7/8 00:00 10k 1,660k +2.08 21.Nf4 Qe8 22.Bd5 Qxh5 23.Nxh5
8/8 00:00 13k 1,891k +1.76 21.Nf4 Qe8 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qxe8 Rxe8 24.Nc6
9/12 00:00 24k 1,969k +0.77 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qg5 Ne5 24.Rhg1 Qxg5 25.hxg5
10/14 00:00 30k 2,006k +0.87 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qe2 Bb7 24.Bxc4 bxc4
11/13 00:00 32k 2,005k +1.67 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qe2 Re8 24.Bxc4
12/14 00:00 36k 2,016k +2.23 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Bd7 24.h5 Ne5
13/20 00:00 235k 2,177k +0.48 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Qf4 24.Bxc4 Bg4 25.Rdf1 Bxe2 26.Rxf4 Bxc4 27.Rxf8+ Rxf8 28.h5 Rf2 29.h6 gxh6 30.Rxh6
14/24 00:00 247k 2,164k +0.69 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Qf4 24.Bxc4 Bg4 25.Rdf1 Bxe2 26.Rxf4 Bxc4 27.Rg4 Rf2 28.h5 Rbf8
15/25 00:00 331k 2,206k +1.16 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Bd7 24.h5 Ne5 25.Rdf1 Qg5 26.Rfg1 Qh6 27.Rh2
16/25 00:00 771k 2,604k +0.94 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ne3 23.Bxa8 Bg4 24.Qg5 Qxg5 25.hxg5 Nxd1 26.Bb7 Nf2 27.Rf1 Bh3 28.Re1 Bc8 29.Bc6 Bg4
17/31 00:00 1,555k 2,729k +0.70 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ne3 23.Bxa8 Bg4 24.Qg5 Qxg5 25.hxg5 Nxd1 26.Bb7 Nf2 27.Re1 Bc8 28.Bxc8 Rxc8 29.e5 dxe5 30.Rxe5 Nh3 31.Rd5
18/30 00:00 1,717k 2,730k +0.85 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Qf4 24.Rhg1 Bh3 25.Bxc4 bxc4 26.Qxc4 Qxe4 27.Qc3 Bg2 28.Rd2 Rf4 29.Nb3 Rf1+ 30.Rxf1 Bxf1 31.Qg3 Qe5
19/28 00:00 2,252k 2,797k +1.49 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 Rxe6 24.Nd5 Re8 25.Nc7 Bg4 26.Rd4 Rec8 27.Nxa8 Rxc6 28.Rg1 h5 29.Re1 Ne5 30.b3 Bh3
20/34 00:01 3,279k 2,989k +1.47 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.Rcxf6 Rxh4 29.Rc6 a5 30.a4 Rd8 31.Rf5 Re8 32.Rxa5
21/29 00:01 3,602k 3,012k +1.45 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.Rcxf6 Rxh4 29.Rc6 Kg7 30.a4 Kg8 31.a5 Rg4 32.Rh1 Rg6 33.Rxc4 Rf8 34.Rc7
22/41 00:01 4,890k 3,150k +1.60 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 Rxe6 24.Nd5 Re8 25.Nc7 Bg4 26.Rd4 Rec8 27.Nxa8 Rxc6 28.b3 Ne5 29.Kb2 Bf3 30.Rg1 Kg8 31.a4 bxa4 32.Rxa4 Kf7 33.Rb4
23/45 00:02 9,000k 3,167k +1.58 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 h6 33.Rfc6 Kg8 34.Re6 Kh8 35.Rf6
24/34 00:03 11,729k 3,170k +1.59 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 h6 33.Rfc6 Kg8 34.Rxc3 Rxc3 35.Rxc3 Ra6 36.Kb2 Kf7 37.Rc7+ Kg6
25/45 00:04 13,937k 3,161k +1.56 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 h6 33.Rfc6 Kg8 34.Ka3 Kh8 35.Re6 Kg8 36.Ree7 Kh8
26/36- 00:05 17,117k 3,132k +1.47 21.Nc6 Qe8
26/41+ 00:05 18,218k 3,154k +1.56 21.Nc6
26/41 00:05 18,955k 3,161k +1.67 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bf7 29.Kc1 c3 30.bxc3 Bxa2 31.Nb3 Kg7 32.Kb2 Bxb3 33.cxb3 Kf7 34.c4 Ke6 35.b4 Ke5 36.Kc3 Rg8 37.Ra1 Rg3+ 38.Kb2 Kd4 39.c5 Rg2+ 40.Kb3
27/43+ 00:07 23,297k 3,178k +1.76 21.Nc6
27/45+ 00:08 27,575k 3,213k +1.85 21.Nc6
27/45 00:08 28,889k 3,239k +1.86 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 Kg8 33.Ka3 Kh8 34.Rfc6 Kg8 35.Rc5 Kh8 36.Rg5 h6 37.Rg6 Rg8 38.Ra6 Rg7
28/44- 00:09 31,384k 3,257k +1.77 21.Nc6 Qe8
28/44- 00:09 32,190k 3,258k +1.68 21.Nc6 Qe8
28/44 00:10 33,303k 3,265k +1.73 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 Kg7 30.Rxa6 Rxa6 31.Rxa6 h5 32.a5 Rf4 33.Rc6 h4 34.a6 h3 35.a7 Rf1+ 36.Ka2 Rf8 37.Rxc4 Ra8 38.Rc7+ Kg6
29/54- 00:11 38,510k 3,290k +1.64 21.Nc6 Qe8
29/54+ 00:13 45,127k 3,326k +1.73 21.Nc6
29/54 00:15 50,609k 3,321k +1.55 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.Kc1 Re8 30.Kd2 Bg2 31.Nf5 Bxe4 32.Nd6 Rd8 33.Rxe4 Rxd6+ 34.Kc3 Kg7 35.Rf4 Kg6 36.Rxc4 f5 37.Rd4 Rf6 38.Kd3 f4 39.Ke2 Kh5 40.Kf3 Rb6 41.b3 Kxh4 42.Kxf4 h5
30/50+ 00:23 77,443k 3,247k +1.65 21.Nc6
30/50+ 00:24 78,892k 3,235k +1.74 21.Nc6
30/50 00:25 82,021k 3,224k +1.80 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Rxe4 26.Rd8+ Kg7 27.a4 Kh6 28.Rf1 f5 29.Nd4 Ra7 30.Rxc8 Rxd4 31.Rxf5 Rxh4 32.Rc6+ Kg7 33.Rg5+ Kf8 34.a5 Rf4 35.Rh5 Rd4 36.Ka2 Rg4 37.Ka3 Kg7 38.Kb4 Rg6 39.Rb6 Rg2 40.Kc3
31/50- 00:28 90,088k 3,217k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8
31/50 00:29 94,625k 3,226k +1.68 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.Kc1 Re8 30.Kd2 Bg2 31.e5 fxe5 32.Nf5 Bh3 33.Ne3 Be6 34.Kc3 Kg7 35.Rd1 Kh6 36.Rd6 Kh5 37.Rxa6 Kxh4 38.Ra5 Bg8 39.Ra7 h5
32/54- 00:32 104,865k 3,238k +1.58 21.Nc6 Qe8
32/54- 00:32 106,768k 3,241k +1.49 21.Nc6 Qe8
32/54- 00:34 112,083k 3,245k +1.35 21.Nc6 Qe8
32/63+ 00:39 130,406k 3,269k +1.46 21.Nc6
32/63+ 00:42 141,031k 3,283k +1.73 21.Nc6
32/63 00:45 148,465k 3,291k +1.41 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Rxe4 26.Rd8+ Kg7 27.a4 c3 28.b3 f5 29.Rh3 Kf6 30.Rhd3 f4 31.Nd4 Bb7 32.Rd6+ Ke5 33.Nf3+ Kf5 34.Rd7 Bc8 35.Rf7+ Kg6 36.Rf8 Bb7 37.h5+ Kg7 38.Rf5 Kg8 39.h6 Re6 40.Rxf4 Rf8 41.Rg4+ Kh8 42.Nd4 Rf1+ 43.Ka2 Rxh6 44.Rxc3
33/52+ 00:46 155,090k 3,300k +1.50 21.Nc6
33/52+ 00:47 156,231k 3,302k +1.60 21.Nc6
33/52+ 00:48 159,338k 3,307k +1.74 21.Nc6
33/52 00:48 160,700k 3,311k +1.74 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.Kc1 Re8 30.Kd2 Bg2 31.Kc3 Bxe4 32.Nf5 Re6 33.Ng3 Bd5 34.Rxe6 Bxe6 35.Ne4 Kg7 36.Nc5 Kf7 37.Nxe6 Kxe6 38.Kxc4 Ke5 39.Kd3 f5 40.Ke3 a5 41.a4 h6 42.c4
34/49- 00:51 171,359k 3,297k +1.64 21.Nc6 Qe8
34/49+ 00:56 186,863k 3,296k +1.74 21.Nc6
34/50+ 01:06 218,353k 3,262k +1.88 21.Nc6
34/50 01:07 220,817k 3,263k +1.67 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Rxe4 27.Na5 Rb8 28.h5 Ba8 29.Rdxf6 Bd5 30.h6 c3 31.Rf8+ Rxf8 32.Rxf8+ Bg8 33.bxc3 Re6 34.c4 Rxh6 35.c5 Kg7 36.Rf1 Rf6 37.Rh1 Be6 38.Kb2 Bd5 39.Rd1 Be6 40.c6 h5 41.Nb3
35/52- 01:10 231,663k 3,268k +1.58 21.Nc6 Qe8
35/53 01:12 235,593k 3,271k +1.60 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 h5 35.Rxa6 Rxh4 36.Rc6 Rf4 37.a5 Rf1+ 38.Ka2 Rf5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Kc1 Ra2 42.Rh6 Kg7 43.Rxh5 c3 44.bxc3 Rxa6
36/57+ 01:36 313,881k 3,255k +1.69 21.Nc6
36/57+ 01:39 323,984k 3,259k +1.79 21.Nc6
36/57 01:39 325,233k 3,260k +1.76 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Kc1 c3 29.b3 Re8 30.a4 Rc8 31.Nb4 a5 32.Na2 Kg7 33.Re3 Kg6 34.Nxc3 Kh5 35.Kb2 Kxh4 36.e5 f5 37.Ne2 Re8 38.c4 h5 39.Kc3 f4 40.Nxf4 Kg5 41.Nxe6+ Rxe6 42.Re1 h4 43.c5
37/61- 01:51 364,458k 3,276k +1.67 21.Nc6 Qe8
37/69 02:11 433,205k 3,282k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 h5 36.Rc6 Rg4 37.a5 Rg1+ 38.Ka2 Rg5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf8 41.Kc1 c3 42.bxc3 Kg7 43.Kd2 h4 44.Rc4 h3 45.Rh4 Rxa6 46.Rxh3 Rc6 47.Rf3 Rf6 48.Rxf6 Kxf6 49.c4 Ke5 50.Ke3 Kd6 51.Kd4 Kc6 52.c5 Kb5
38/61+ 02:34 511,434k 3,300k +1.80 21.Nc6
38/61+ 02:44 542,501k 3,290k +1.89 21.Nc6
38/72 02:56 579,132k 3,290k +1.80 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 h5 36.Rc6 Rg4 37.a5 Rg1+ 38.Ka2 Rg5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Rc7+ Kf6 42.a7 c3 43.b3 h4 44.b4 Ra4 45.b5 h3
39/59- 03:04 607,607k 3,289k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8
39/69- 03:11 632,461k 3,296k +1.61 21.Nc6 Qe8
39/69+ 03:12 635,571k 3,297k +1.70 21.Nc6
39/69 03:25 676,823k 3,292k +1.59 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 h5 36.Rc6 Rg4 37.a5 Rg1+ 38.Ka2 Rg5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Kc1 Ra2 42.Rh6 Kg7 43.Rxh5 c3 44.bxc3 Rxa6 45.c4 Kg6 46.Rd5 Kf7 47.Kd2 Ke6 48.Rh5 Rd6+ 49.Kc3 Kd7 50.Rc5 Ke6 51.Ra5
40/68- 03:35 711,091k 3,295k +1.50 21.Nc6 Qe8
40/68+ 03:44 737,855k 3,292k +1.59 21.Nc6
40/68+ 03:50 760,911k 3,297k +1.73 21.Nc6
40/68 03:55 779,173k 3,303k +1.79 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 Rf4 36.Rc6 h5 37.a5 Rf1+ 38.Ka2 Rf5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Kc1 Ra2 42.Rh6 c3 43.bxc3 Kg7 44.Rxh5 Rxa6 45.c4 Kg6 46.Rd5 Rc6 47.c5 Kf7 48.Kd2 Ke6 49.c4 Rc7 50.Kd3 Rd7 51.Kd4
41/56- 04:12 836,471k 3,308k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8
41/65- 04:26 881,643k 3,312k +1.61 21.Nc6 Qe8
41/65- 05:06 1,021,763k 3,329k +1.46 21.Nc6 Qe8
41/65+ 05:23 1,075,492k 3,329k +1.58 21.Nc6
41/71 05:58 1,194,089k 3,334k +1.69 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Kc1 Re8 29.Kd2 c3+ 30.bxc3 Bxa2 31.Kd3 Bf7 32.Kd4 Kg7 33.Nb4 Rd8+ 34.Nd5 f5 35.c4 fxe4 36.Rxe4 a5 37.Re7 Rd6 38.Kc5 Rh6 39.Ne3 Kf8 40.Re4 Rh5+ 41.Kb6 Bg6 42.Rf4+ Ke7 43.c5 Re5 44.Nc4 Re2 45.c3 Rc2 46.c6 Rxc3 47.Nxa5
42/66- 06:16 1,254,347k 3,327k +1.60 21.Nc6 Qe8
42/66+ 06:55 1,383,211k 3,328k +1.69 21.Nc6
42/66+ 07:17 1,454,992k 3,325k +1.84 21.Nc6
42/66- 07:30 1,498,806k 3,328k +1.51 21.Nc6 Qe8
42/71+ 08:04 1,609,722k 3,324k +1.77 21.Nc6
42/85 09:13 1,840,003k 3,327k +1.78 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Rxe4 27.Na5 Rb8 28.Nxb7 Rxb7 29.Rdxf6 Rxh4 30.Rxa6 Rg4 31.Rh1 Kg7 32.Rah6 Kg8 33.R6h5 Rg6 34.Rc5 Rgb6 35.b3 cxb3 36.cxb3 Re6 37.Rc8+ Kg7 38.Kb2 Re2+ 39.Rc2 Rxc2+ 40.Kxc2 Kg6 41.a4 h5 42.Kc3 Kg5 43.b4 h4 44.b5 Kg4 45.Kc4 Ra7 46.b6 Rxa4+ 47.Kb5
43/68- 10:32 2,112,663k 3,339k +1.69 21.Nc6 Qe8
43/68+ 10:35 2,124,060k 3,340k +1.78 21.Nc6
43/68+ 11:04 2,217,400k 3,338k +1.92 21.Nc6
43/68- 11:36 2,325,660k 3,337k +1.59 21.Nc6 Qe8
43/68+ 11:49 2,364,760k 3,333k +1.85 21.Nc6
43/68 12:21 2,470,387k 3,331k +1.88 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.b3 Re8 29.Nb4 a5 30.Nc6 a4 31.b4 c3 32.Re3 Bd5 33.Nd4 a3 34.b5 Bc4 35.Kc1 Rd8 36.Nf5 Bxb5 37.Rxc3 Ra8 38.Rc7 Rd8 39.Nh6 Rd7 40.Rc3 Kg7 41.Nf5+ Kg6 42.Rg3+ Kh5 43.Rxa3 Kg4 44.Ne3+ Kxh4 45.Nd5 Rb7 46.Rb3 Kg5 47.a4 Bc6 48.a5 Rxb3 49.cxb3
44/66- 13:12 2,618,348k 3,302k +1.79 21.Nc6 Qe8
44/66+ 13:27 2,666,173k 3,300k +1.88 21.Nc6
44/69+ 17:08 3,367,649k 3,276k +2.02 21.Nc6
44/69 17:28 3,434,721k 3,277k +1.93 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.b4 cxb3 30.axb3 Re8 31.c4 Bg2 32.Kb2 Rxe4 33.Rxe4 Bxe4 34.b4 Kg8 35.Ne6 Bf5 36.Nf4 Kf7 37.Kc3 Bg4 38.Kd4 Ke8 39.Kc5 Ke7 40.Nd5+ Ke6 41.Kd4 Kf7 42.Nc7 Bc8 43.Kd5 Ke7 44.Kc6 Bd7+ 45.Kb6 f5 46.c5 Bb5 47.Nxa6 Bxa6 48.Kxa6 f4 49.c6 Kd6
probably 20...Nc4 is a mistake and stockfish suggest 20...g6 with good chances for white but a score that is only near +1 pawns.
For this discussion refuted means evaluation of more than 1.5 pawns for one side after long analysis by stockfish with contempt 0(more than 3,000,000,000 nodes) so probably losing the game
common means that history of games shows at least 10% probability of playing every move for the loser and that humans played every move in the line of the loser at least 10 times in history.
First line(statistics is based on chesstempo site when first number is number of cases move of black is played from the relevant position and second number is number of time the position before black's move appeared on the board).
I do not think that chesstempo is the best to generate the statistics and if somebody has a pgn of human games when it is easy to find statistics from it then it may be better to continue from it.
1.e4 c5 (755294 games out of 1738140 so common)
2.Nf3 d6 (238130 games out of 581989 so common)
3.d4 cxd4 (179738 games out of 187428 so very common)
4.Nxd4 Nf6 (167472 games out of 170275 so very common)
5.Nc3 a6 (101933 games out of 171411)
6.Bg5 e6 (18863 out of 23420)
7.f4 Be7 (5756 out of 16163)
8.Qf3 Qc7 (3862 out of 5559)
9.0-0-0 Nbd7(3054 out of 3816)
10.g4 b5(2050 out of 2566)
11.Bxf6 Nxf6(1548 out of 1925)
12.g5 Nd7(1513 out of 1513)
13.f5 Bxg5+(542 out of 1197)
14.Kb1 Ne5 (438 out of 541)
15.Qh5 Qd8(221 out of 426)
16.h4 Bf6(57 out of 57)
17.fxe6 0-0(45 out of 55)
18.Bh3 fxe6(20 out of 46)
19.Bxe6+ Kh8(19 out of 19)
20.Nd5 Nc4(13 out of 30)
and now stockfish(contempt 0) suggest that white is winning
[d]r1bq1r1k/6pp/p2pBb2/1p1N3Q/2nNP2P/8/PPP5/1K1R3R w - - 3 21
Stockfish_19072603_x64_modern:
1/1 00:00 279 140k +3.75 21.Nxf6 gxf6
2/2 00:00 859 430k +4.17 21.Nc6 Bxe6 22.Nxd8 Raxd8
3/3 00:00 1k 520k +4.17 21.Nc6 Bxe6 22.Nxd8
4/6 00:00 2k 819k +6.16 21.Nf4 h6 22.Ng6+ Kh7 23.Nxf8+ Qxf8
5/7 00:00 3k 1,010k +5.08 21.Nf4 h6 22.Bd5 Bxd4 23.Ng6+ Kh7
6/8 00:00 5k 1,310k +2.21 21.Nc6 g6 22.Nxd8 gxh5 23.Nf7+ Rxf7 24.Bxf7
7/8 00:00 10k 1,660k +2.08 21.Nf4 Qe8 22.Bd5 Qxh5 23.Nxh5
8/8 00:00 13k 1,891k +1.76 21.Nf4 Qe8 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qxe8 Rxe8 24.Nc6
9/12 00:00 24k 1,969k +0.77 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qg5 Ne5 24.Rhg1 Qxg5 25.hxg5
10/14 00:00 30k 2,006k +0.87 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qe2 Bb7 24.Bxc4 bxc4
11/13 00:00 32k 2,005k +1.67 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ra7 23.Qe2 Re8 24.Bxc4
12/14 00:00 36k 2,016k +2.23 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Bd7 24.h5 Ne5
13/20 00:00 235k 2,177k +0.48 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Qf4 24.Bxc4 Bg4 25.Rdf1 Bxe2 26.Rxf4 Bxc4 27.Rxf8+ Rxf8 28.h5 Rf2 29.h6 gxh6 30.Rxh6
14/24 00:00 247k 2,164k +0.69 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Qf4 24.Bxc4 Bg4 25.Rdf1 Bxe2 26.Rxf4 Bxc4 27.Rg4 Rf2 28.h5 Rbf8
15/25 00:00 331k 2,206k +1.16 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Bd7 24.h5 Ne5 25.Rdf1 Qg5 26.Rfg1 Qh6 27.Rh2
16/25 00:00 771k 2,604k +0.94 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ne3 23.Bxa8 Bg4 24.Qg5 Qxg5 25.hxg5 Nxd1 26.Bb7 Nf2 27.Rf1 Bh3 28.Re1 Bc8 29.Bc6 Bg4
17/31 00:00 1,555k 2,729k +0.70 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Ne3 23.Bxa8 Bg4 24.Qg5 Qxg5 25.hxg5 Nxd1 26.Bb7 Nf2 27.Re1 Bc8 28.Bxc8 Rxc8 29.e5 dxe5 30.Rxe5 Nh3 31.Rd5
18/30 00:00 1,717k 2,730k +0.85 21.Nxf6 Qxf6 22.Bd5 Rb8 23.Qe2 Qf4 24.Rhg1 Bh3 25.Bxc4 bxc4 26.Qxc4 Qxe4 27.Qc3 Bg2 28.Rd2 Rf4 29.Nb3 Rf1+ 30.Rxf1 Bxf1 31.Qg3 Qe5
19/28 00:00 2,252k 2,797k +1.49 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 Rxe6 24.Nd5 Re8 25.Nc7 Bg4 26.Rd4 Rec8 27.Nxa8 Rxc6 28.Rg1 h5 29.Re1 Ne5 30.b3 Bh3
20/34 00:01 3,279k 2,989k +1.47 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.Rcxf6 Rxh4 29.Rc6 a5 30.a4 Rd8 31.Rf5 Re8 32.Rxa5
21/29 00:01 3,602k 3,012k +1.45 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.Rcxf6 Rxh4 29.Rc6 Kg7 30.a4 Kg8 31.a5 Rg4 32.Rh1 Rg6 33.Rxc4 Rf8 34.Rc7
22/41 00:01 4,890k 3,150k +1.60 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 Rxe6 24.Nd5 Re8 25.Nc7 Bg4 26.Rd4 Rec8 27.Nxa8 Rxc6 28.b3 Ne5 29.Kb2 Bf3 30.Rg1 Kg8 31.a4 bxa4 32.Rxa4 Kf7 33.Rb4
23/45 00:02 9,000k 3,167k +1.58 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 h6 33.Rfc6 Kg8 34.Re6 Kh8 35.Rf6
24/34 00:03 11,729k 3,170k +1.59 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 h6 33.Rfc6 Kg8 34.Rxc3 Rxc3 35.Rxc3 Ra6 36.Kb2 Kf7 37.Rc7+ Kg6
25/45 00:04 13,937k 3,161k +1.56 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 h6 33.Rfc6 Kg8 34.Ka3 Kh8 35.Re6 Kg8 36.Ree7 Kh8
26/36- 00:05 17,117k 3,132k +1.47 21.Nc6 Qe8
26/41+ 00:05 18,218k 3,154k +1.56 21.Nc6
26/41 00:05 18,955k 3,161k +1.67 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bf7 29.Kc1 c3 30.bxc3 Bxa2 31.Nb3 Kg7 32.Kb2 Bxb3 33.cxb3 Kf7 34.c4 Ke6 35.b4 Ke5 36.Kc3 Rg8 37.Ra1 Rg3+ 38.Kb2 Kd4 39.c5 Rg2+ 40.Kb3
27/43+ 00:07 23,297k 3,178k +1.76 21.Nc6
27/45+ 00:08 27,575k 3,213k +1.85 21.Nc6
27/45 00:08 28,889k 3,239k +1.86 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 a5 30.Rc7 c3 31.b3 Rh3 32.Ka2 Kg8 33.Ka3 Kh8 34.Rfc6 Kg8 35.Rc5 Kh8 36.Rg5 h6 37.Rg6 Rg8 38.Ra6 Rg7
28/44- 00:09 31,384k 3,257k +1.77 21.Nc6 Qe8
28/44- 00:09 32,190k 3,258k +1.68 21.Nc6 Qe8
28/44 00:10 33,303k 3,265k +1.73 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Bxc6 27.Rxc6 Rxe4 28.a4 Rxh4 29.Rfxf6 Kg7 30.Rxa6 Rxa6 31.Rxa6 h5 32.a5 Rf4 33.Rc6 h4 34.a6 h3 35.a7 Rf1+ 36.Ka2 Rf8 37.Rxc4 Ra8 38.Rc7+ Kg6
29/54- 00:11 38,510k 3,290k +1.64 21.Nc6 Qe8
29/54+ 00:13 45,127k 3,326k +1.73 21.Nc6
29/54 00:15 50,609k 3,321k +1.55 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.Kc1 Re8 30.Kd2 Bg2 31.Nf5 Bxe4 32.Nd6 Rd8 33.Rxe4 Rxd6+ 34.Kc3 Kg7 35.Rf4 Kg6 36.Rxc4 f5 37.Rd4 Rf6 38.Kd3 f4 39.Ke2 Kh5 40.Kf3 Rb6 41.b3 Kxh4 42.Kxf4 h5
30/50+ 00:23 77,443k 3,247k +1.65 21.Nc6
30/50+ 00:24 78,892k 3,235k +1.74 21.Nc6
30/50 00:25 82,021k 3,224k +1.80 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Rxe4 26.Rd8+ Kg7 27.a4 Kh6 28.Rf1 f5 29.Nd4 Ra7 30.Rxc8 Rxd4 31.Rxf5 Rxh4 32.Rc6+ Kg7 33.Rg5+ Kf8 34.a5 Rf4 35.Rh5 Rd4 36.Ka2 Rg4 37.Ka3 Kg7 38.Kb4 Rg6 39.Rb6 Rg2 40.Kc3
31/50- 00:28 90,088k 3,217k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8
31/50 00:29 94,625k 3,226k +1.68 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.Kc1 Re8 30.Kd2 Bg2 31.e5 fxe5 32.Nf5 Bh3 33.Ne3 Be6 34.Kc3 Kg7 35.Rd1 Kh6 36.Rd6 Kh5 37.Rxa6 Kxh4 38.Ra5 Bg8 39.Ra7 h5
32/54- 00:32 104,865k 3,238k +1.58 21.Nc6 Qe8
32/54- 00:32 106,768k 3,241k +1.49 21.Nc6 Qe8
32/54- 00:34 112,083k 3,245k +1.35 21.Nc6 Qe8
32/63+ 00:39 130,406k 3,269k +1.46 21.Nc6
32/63+ 00:42 141,031k 3,283k +1.73 21.Nc6
32/63 00:45 148,465k 3,291k +1.41 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Rxe4 26.Rd8+ Kg7 27.a4 c3 28.b3 f5 29.Rh3 Kf6 30.Rhd3 f4 31.Nd4 Bb7 32.Rd6+ Ke5 33.Nf3+ Kf5 34.Rd7 Bc8 35.Rf7+ Kg6 36.Rf8 Bb7 37.h5+ Kg7 38.Rf5 Kg8 39.h6 Re6 40.Rxf4 Rf8 41.Rg4+ Kh8 42.Nd4 Rf1+ 43.Ka2 Rxh6 44.Rxc3
33/52+ 00:46 155,090k 3,300k +1.50 21.Nc6
33/52+ 00:47 156,231k 3,302k +1.60 21.Nc6
33/52+ 00:48 159,338k 3,307k +1.74 21.Nc6
33/52 00:48 160,700k 3,311k +1.74 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.Kc1 Re8 30.Kd2 Bg2 31.Kc3 Bxe4 32.Nf5 Re6 33.Ng3 Bd5 34.Rxe6 Bxe6 35.Ne4 Kg7 36.Nc5 Kf7 37.Nxe6 Kxe6 38.Kxc4 Ke5 39.Kd3 f5 40.Ke3 a5 41.a4 h6 42.c4
34/49- 00:51 171,359k 3,297k +1.64 21.Nc6 Qe8
34/49+ 00:56 186,863k 3,296k +1.74 21.Nc6
34/50+ 01:06 218,353k 3,262k +1.88 21.Nc6
34/50 01:07 220,817k 3,263k +1.67 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Rxe4 27.Na5 Rb8 28.h5 Ba8 29.Rdxf6 Bd5 30.h6 c3 31.Rf8+ Rxf8 32.Rxf8+ Bg8 33.bxc3 Re6 34.c4 Rxh6 35.c5 Kg7 36.Rf1 Rf6 37.Rh1 Be6 38.Kb2 Bd5 39.Rd1 Be6 40.c6 h5 41.Nb3
35/52- 01:10 231,663k 3,268k +1.58 21.Nc6 Qe8
35/53 01:12 235,593k 3,271k +1.60 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 h5 35.Rxa6 Rxh4 36.Rc6 Rf4 37.a5 Rf1+ 38.Ka2 Rf5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Kc1 Ra2 42.Rh6 Kg7 43.Rxh5 c3 44.bxc3 Rxa6
36/57+ 01:36 313,881k 3,255k +1.69 21.Nc6
36/57+ 01:39 323,984k 3,259k +1.79 21.Nc6
36/57 01:39 325,233k 3,260k +1.76 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Kc1 c3 29.b3 Re8 30.a4 Rc8 31.Nb4 a5 32.Na2 Kg7 33.Re3 Kg6 34.Nxc3 Kh5 35.Kb2 Kxh4 36.e5 f5 37.Ne2 Re8 38.c4 h5 39.Kc3 f4 40.Nxf4 Kg5 41.Nxe6+ Rxe6 42.Re1 h4 43.c5
37/61- 01:51 364,458k 3,276k +1.67 21.Nc6 Qe8
37/69 02:11 433,205k 3,282k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 h5 36.Rc6 Rg4 37.a5 Rg1+ 38.Ka2 Rg5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf8 41.Kc1 c3 42.bxc3 Kg7 43.Kd2 h4 44.Rc4 h3 45.Rh4 Rxa6 46.Rxh3 Rc6 47.Rf3 Rf6 48.Rxf6 Kxf6 49.c4 Ke5 50.Ke3 Kd6 51.Kd4 Kc6 52.c5 Kb5
38/61+ 02:34 511,434k 3,300k +1.80 21.Nc6
38/61+ 02:44 542,501k 3,290k +1.89 21.Nc6
38/72 02:56 579,132k 3,290k +1.80 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 h5 36.Rc6 Rg4 37.a5 Rg1+ 38.Ka2 Rg5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Rc7+ Kf6 42.a7 c3 43.b3 h4 44.b4 Ra4 45.b5 h3
39/59- 03:04 607,607k 3,289k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8
39/69- 03:11 632,461k 3,296k +1.61 21.Nc6 Qe8
39/69+ 03:12 635,571k 3,297k +1.70 21.Nc6
39/69 03:25 676,823k 3,292k +1.59 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 h5 36.Rc6 Rg4 37.a5 Rg1+ 38.Ka2 Rg5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Kc1 Ra2 42.Rh6 Kg7 43.Rxh5 c3 44.bxc3 Rxa6 45.c4 Kg6 46.Rd5 Kf7 47.Kd2 Ke6 48.Rh5 Rd6+ 49.Kc3 Kd7 50.Rc5 Ke6 51.Ra5
40/68- 03:35 711,091k 3,295k +1.50 21.Nc6 Qe8
40/68+ 03:44 737,855k 3,292k +1.59 21.Nc6
40/68+ 03:50 760,911k 3,297k +1.73 21.Nc6
40/68 03:55 779,173k 3,303k +1.79 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.e5 fxe5 30.Rxe5 Rf8 31.a4 Rf4 32.Re8+ Kg7 33.Ne6+ Bxe6 34.Rxe6 Rxh4 35.Rxa6 Rf4 36.Rc6 h5 37.a5 Rf1+ 38.Ka2 Rf5 39.a6 Ra5+ 40.Kb1 Kf7 41.Kc1 Ra2 42.Rh6 c3 43.bxc3 Kg7 44.Rxh5 Rxa6 45.c4 Kg6 46.Rd5 Rc6 47.c5 Kf7 48.Kd2 Ke6 49.c4 Rc7 50.Kd3 Rd7 51.Kd4
41/56- 04:12 836,471k 3,308k +1.70 21.Nc6 Qe8
41/65- 04:26 881,643k 3,312k +1.61 21.Nc6 Qe8
41/65- 05:06 1,021,763k 3,329k +1.46 21.Nc6 Qe8
41/65+ 05:23 1,075,492k 3,329k +1.58 21.Nc6
41/71 05:58 1,194,089k 3,334k +1.69 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Kc1 Re8 29.Kd2 c3+ 30.bxc3 Bxa2 31.Kd3 Bf7 32.Kd4 Kg7 33.Nb4 Rd8+ 34.Nd5 f5 35.c4 fxe4 36.Rxe4 a5 37.Re7 Rd6 38.Kc5 Rh6 39.Ne3 Kf8 40.Re4 Rh5+ 41.Kb6 Bg6 42.Rf4+ Ke7 43.c5 Re5 44.Nc4 Re2 45.c3 Rc2 46.c6 Rxc3 47.Nxa5
42/66- 06:16 1,254,347k 3,327k +1.60 21.Nc6 Qe8
42/66+ 06:55 1,383,211k 3,328k +1.69 21.Nc6
42/66+ 07:17 1,454,992k 3,325k +1.84 21.Nc6
42/66- 07:30 1,498,806k 3,328k +1.51 21.Nc6 Qe8
42/71+ 08:04 1,609,722k 3,324k +1.77 21.Nc6
42/85 09:13 1,840,003k 3,327k +1.78 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bb7 26.Rf1 Rxe4 27.Na5 Rb8 28.Nxb7 Rxb7 29.Rdxf6 Rxh4 30.Rxa6 Rg4 31.Rh1 Kg7 32.Rah6 Kg8 33.R6h5 Rg6 34.Rc5 Rgb6 35.b3 cxb3 36.cxb3 Re6 37.Rc8+ Kg7 38.Kb2 Re2+ 39.Rc2 Rxc2+ 40.Kxc2 Kg6 41.a4 h5 42.Kc3 Kg5 43.b4 h4 44.b5 Kg4 45.Kc4 Ra7 46.b6 Rxa4+ 47.Kb5
43/68- 10:32 2,112,663k 3,339k +1.69 21.Nc6 Qe8
43/68+ 10:35 2,124,060k 3,340k +1.78 21.Nc6
43/68+ 11:04 2,217,400k 3,338k +1.92 21.Nc6
43/68- 11:36 2,325,660k 3,337k +1.59 21.Nc6 Qe8
43/68+ 11:49 2,364,760k 3,333k +1.85 21.Nc6
43/68 12:21 2,470,387k 3,331k +1.88 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.b3 Re8 29.Nb4 a5 30.Nc6 a4 31.b4 c3 32.Re3 Bd5 33.Nd4 a3 34.b5 Bc4 35.Kc1 Rd8 36.Nf5 Bxb5 37.Rxc3 Ra8 38.Rc7 Rd8 39.Nh6 Rd7 40.Rc3 Kg7 41.Nf5+ Kg6 42.Rg3+ Kh5 43.Rxa3 Kg4 44.Ne3+ Kxh4 45.Nd5 Rb7 46.Rb3 Kg5 47.a4 Bc6 48.a5 Rxb3 49.cxb3
44/66- 13:12 2,618,348k 3,302k +1.79 21.Nc6 Qe8
44/66+ 13:27 2,666,173k 3,300k +1.88 21.Nc6
44/69+ 17:08 3,367,649k 3,276k +2.02 21.Nc6
44/69 17:28 3,434,721k 3,277k +1.93 21.Nc6 Qe8 22.Qxe8 Rxe8 23.Nxf6 gxf6 24.Bxc4 bxc4 25.Rxd6 Bg4 26.Re1 Re6 27.Rxe6 Bxe6 28.Nd4 Bh3 29.b4 cxb3 30.axb3 Re8 31.c4 Bg2 32.Kb2 Rxe4 33.Rxe4 Bxe4 34.b4 Kg8 35.Ne6 Bf5 36.Nf4 Kf7 37.Kc3 Bg4 38.Kd4 Ke8 39.Kc5 Ke7 40.Nd5+ Ke6 41.Kd4 Kf7 42.Nc7 Bc8 43.Kd5 Ke7 44.Kc6 Bd7+ 45.Kb6 f5 46.c5 Bb5 47.Nxa6 Bxa6 48.Kxa6 f4 49.c6 Kd6
probably 20...Nc4 is a mistake and stockfish suggest 20...g6 with good chances for white but a score that is only near +1 pawns.