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Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:52 pm
by Zenmastur
zullil wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:12 pm
Zenmastur wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:05 pm
zullil wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:08 pm
Zenmastur wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:51 am
I tried this with 1.g4 right after I started playing CC and couldn't quite get there. IIRC the best I could get after about a week of analysis was -3.xx or so. This was on 5M-6M nps machine with 16 GB of TT and 6-man EGTBes.
Regards,
Zenmastur
Wow, that's quite surprising to me. My gut would suggest that 1. g4 draws.
I don't suppose you've retained the PV that yields such a decisive advantage for Black?
I'm sure I have it. Unfortunately I have about 4 TB of of PGN's, Game DB's etc. They are not well organized. I did look and I found about 20 game databases devoted to the GROB. About 20 MB in total. So I guess the first order of business would be to go through them. I'm not hopeful it's in those, IIRC they are mostly MCTS games for the grob (i.e. short time control games to use in book making.) I have several other directories where it could be. I assume I gave it some name I would recognize. I hope so, I spent enough time analyzing it. We'll see, in the mean time, I have some time to kill so I started anther analysis. If I recall I used SF DD or a build close in time to SF DD to do the analysis. This may help find it as I can search the entire disk for this. The reason I started a new one is the 300 ELO difference in SF since I last did it, my hardware is much faster, (although not as fast as I would like) I have partial 7-man Syszgy now (vice 5 or 6 man) and the 7-man is loaded onto a NVMe drive ( vice a slow 5400 RPM HDD) and I have more than twice the ram as before.
This should make it more accurate and it should take less time than the original. It should also give me a better idea if I have a shot at scores like -7. A 300 ELO difference in engine strength is quite a bit. Who knows maybe it will tell me the position is dead even. I doubt it, but I've had stranger things happen even with scores over 4.xx. So far, I've done just about two passes (one down (d35) and almost 1 back to the root (d45)) and the score is -1.65 or so. I let the individual searches go deeper the more passes I do. So maybe 6 or 8 passes total, well see.
I'll do a HDD search tomorrow to see if that turns up anything. I could do a position search through the DB's, unfortunately I have literally hundreds of them (maybe a thousand) so that could take a while since I have to hand load each before I can search it.
I do have a medical procedure I have to have done as soon as it clears insurance (maybe the end of this week or early next week), assuming I survive it I should have a new analysis in the next week or so.
Regards,
Zenmastur
Hope the medical procedure goes well. No rush for the analysis!
I've had so many of them recently, I don't worry much about them anymore. This one is normally easy and safe. I have a few complicating factors. The last time they had to keep me a few days extra. My wife will be gone on a business trip till friday so I guess I have to put it off til tuesday next week. Wouldn't want to go off and die while she was away from home. I'd never here the end of it!
I'm sure I'll be fine though.
I think I found a "quick" way to find the old analysis, I can extract all Grob games to a single database. All my analysis stays in database files so no use looking in PGN's etc. I have 841 of them but many of them I can exclude. It will still be a bit of work but it will put every grob game I have in one DB so that will make a nice reference file. It will take a day or two to go thru them all. But I have spare time and the DB files are scattered all over the drive. I guess it's time I organize them a bit!
Regards,
Zenmastur
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:13 pm
by Vinvin
After 1.g4 d5 is around -1, i'd say it's losing.
The Alekhine's 1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 is around +0.7 and probably losing as well.
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:46 pm
by Zenmastur
Vinvin wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:13 pm
After 1.g4 d5 is around -1, i'd say it's losing.
The Alekhine's 1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 is around +0.7 and probably losing as well.
I think most people are looking for something a little more concrete. A score of -9 would be nice. I've see a score of greater than -7 be a fortress so even that isn't 100%. Most people would be satisfied with a -3 score. I've had way too many games where I could have an advantage of +3 but the endgame had I chosen to play that line would have been unwinnable. Not all game are like that but when you're playing someone that knows their endgames it's way too easy to end up in that situation. In a CC game, when you are clearly better but not yet winning, you will spend a large fraction of your time trying to avoid "traps" that lead to an unwinnable endgame. So without further analysis, a raw score of +3/-3 isn't sufficient to declare a win in all cases.
Regards,
Zenmastur
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:03 pm
by Harvey Williamson
Ovyron wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:38 pm
I'm willing to defend 1.g4 against anybody that seriously think it is losing, and I guarantee that I can draw them.
Am willing to give it a go 1...d5. if you want to play we should probably play the game in the tournaments and matches sub-forum?
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:25 am
by Zenmastur
Harvey Williamson wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:03 pm
Ovyron wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:38 pm
I'm willing to defend 1.g4 against anybody that seriously think it is losing, and I guarantee that I can draw them.
Am willing to give it a go 1...d5. if you want to play we should probably play the game in the tournaments and matches sub-forum?
Hmmm...
That should be an interesting match. I know Ovyron uses old and slow hardware and there is about a 400 ELO rating difference between the two of you. So, I'm not sure how good of a match up that will be.
What hardware are you using if you don't mind me asking?
Regards,
Zenmastur
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:18 am
by MikeB
Zenmastur wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:25 am
Harvey Williamson wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:03 pm
Ovyron wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:38 pm
I'm willing to defend 1.g4 against anybody that seriously think it is losing, and I guarantee that I can draw them.
Am willing to give it a go 1...d5. if you want to play we should probably play the game in the tournaments and matches sub-forum?
Hmmm...
That should be an interesting match. I know Ovyron uses old and slow hardware and there is about a 400 ELO rating difference between the two of you. So, I'm not sure how good of a match up that will be.
What hardware are you using if you don't mind me asking?
Regards,
Zenmastur
Harvey doesn't need hardware - ICCF -SIM and opening book expert. There is almost no chance of winning with it against Harvey. A draw is always a possibility of course with white. I hope they play - should be entertaining.
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:17 am
by Zenmastur
MikeB wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:18 am
Zenmastur wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:25 am
Harvey Williamson wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:03 pm
Ovyron wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:38 pm
I'm willing to defend 1.g4 against anybody that seriously think it is losing, and I guarantee that I can draw them.
Am willing to give it a go 1...d5. if you want to play we should probably play the game in the tournaments and matches sub-forum?
Hmmm...
That should be an interesting match. I know Ovyron uses old and slow hardware and there is about a 400 ELO rating difference between the two of you. So, I'm not sure how good of a match up that will be.
What hardware are you using if you don't mind me asking?
Regards,
Zenmastur
Harvey doesn't need hardware - ICCF -SIM and opening book expert. There is almost no chance of winning with it against Harvey. A draw is always a possibility of course with white. I hope they play - should be entertaining.
He doesn't need hardware?
Well, if he wants to play without using a computer that should be very entertaining!
Regards,
Zenmastur
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:43 am
by lkaufman
I think I'll change my opinion from "draw" to "loss" for 1.g4. I let Komodo MCTS think about it for an hour or so and got a -.83 score for it after 1...d5. Usually anything beyond 0.7 is a winning advantage based on playouts from the position. This doesn't mean that I or anyone else can prove the win, just that it is probably the smart way to bet if somehow there were a way to get the answer!
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:20 am
by Zenmastur
lkaufman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:43 am
I think I'll change my opinion from "draw" to "loss" for 1.g4. I let Komodo MCTS think about it for an hour or so and got a -.83 score for it after 1...d5. Usually anything beyond 0.7 is a winning advantage based on playouts from the position. This doesn't mean that I or anyone else can prove the win, just that it is probably the smart way to bet if somehow there were a way to get the answer!
What do you consider proof?
Regards,
Zenmastur
Re: 1.g4 opening is losing?
Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:50 am
by Uri Blass
Zenmastur wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:20 am
lkaufman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:43 am
I think I'll change my opinion from "draw" to "loss" for 1.g4. I let Komodo MCTS think about it for an hour or so and got a -.83 score for it after 1...d5. Usually anything beyond 0.7 is a winning advantage based on playouts from the position. This doesn't mean that I or anyone else can prove the win, just that it is probably the smart way to bet if somehow there were a way to get the answer!
What do you consider proof?
Regards,
Zenmastur
a tree that show a forced mate in all lines is certainly a proof.
1.f3(f4) e6(e5) 2.g4 is proved to be a forced mate for black(white can use a different order of moves)
1.f3(f4) e6(e5) 2.h3 is also proved to be a forced mate for black(white can use a different order of moves)
I am not sure if you can find a proof for a forced mate after 3 plies except these examples
There are some lines when white lose the queen like
1.e3 Nf6 2.Qg4 or 1.e4 g6 2.Qh5
I am sure that black win in them but I am not sure if you can prove a forced mate for black in one of them