My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

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Dann Corbit
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My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by Dann Corbit » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:07 am

There are links like this one with wildly optimistic prices:
https://wccftech.com/amd-3rd-gen-ryzen- ... -november/

But I do not think those prices are realistic.
From the current 3rd generation lower end AMD hardware, it works out to about $55 per core:

Code: Select all

Cores dollars
------  ---------
16	  $749
12	  $499
8	  $399
8	  $329
6	  $249
6	  $199
So my guess as to the threadripper costs are:

Code: Select all

Cores dollars
------  ---------
64	  $3520
48	  $2640
32	  $1760
24	  $1320
I guess we may find out for the bottom 2 in two days.
How many people think I am high in my estimates?
Taking ideas is not a vice, it is a virtue. We have another word for this. It is called learning.
But sharing ideas is an even greater virtue. We have another word for this. It is called teaching.

MikeB
Posts: 3467
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 5:34 am
Location: Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by MikeB » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:45 am

The website is probably closer - sites like this cultivate relationships to get inside info first.

jhellis3
Posts: 400
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:36 pm

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by jhellis3 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:34 am

I would guess they will want something at the $999 price point, so I would guess that for the lowest end, $1199 max. Top tier, I'd go $2999 max but I'm less certain of that. The 28 core skylake-x is $2978, so yeah I'd go upper bound of $2999 but likely less.... maybe $2699?

As for site reliability wccftech is notoriously untrustworthy, at best whatever they post is a coinflip.

Zenmastur
Posts: 487
Joined: Sat May 31, 2014 6:28 am

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by Zenmastur » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:20 am

Dann Corbit wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:07 am
There are links like this one with wildly optimistic prices:
https://wccftech.com/amd-3rd-gen-ryzen- ... -november/

But I do not think those prices are realistic.
From the current 3rd generation lower end AMD hardware, it works out to about $55 per core:

Code: Select all

Cores dollars
------  ---------
16	  $749
12	  $499
8	  $399
8	  $329
6	  $249
6	  $199
So my guess as to the threadripper costs are:

Code: Select all

Cores dollars
------  ---------
64	  $3520
48	  $2640
32	  $1760
24	  $1320
I guess we may find out for the bottom 2 in two days.
How many people think I am high in my estimates?
Intel still has significant room to reduce prices, believe it or not! They delayed the i9 10xxx series until after pricing for Thread-ripper is announced.

I'm sure AMD is mindful of this. I don't see the 24 core higher than $1,000. The price for the 32-core you listed are at the high end. I have no clue about the higher core counts other than they "should" be less than the single socket EPYC chips of similar core counts.

The other issue is what grade of CCD's they choose to put on Threadrippers. If they use top of the line CCD's/CCX's then the price will be higher. If they uses CCd's/CCX's that have worse voltage scaling then the prices will be lower. I suspect they will use lower grade CCD's/CCX's that run hot because they aren't going in a server room with 10,000 other CPUs so power consumption and heat issues are less important for Threadripper. The price you pay for bad voltage scaling is higher power consumption and higher CPU temps. This is tolerable for single systems but not for a data center.

Regards,

Zenmastur
Only 2 defining forces have ever offered to die for you.....Jesus Christ and the American Soldier. One died for your soul, the other for your freedom.

corres
Posts: 1681
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:41 am
Location: hungary

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by corres » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:14 am

I think the prices are determined mainly the production expenses, the market situations and the expectation of those products.
As we can read in reports there are some problems with 3rd.gen Ryzens: Capacity of 7 nm production is limited, stability issue caused by the discrepancy between CPU and motherboards, lack of appropriate coolers because of the too low TDP given by AMD and the high density of thermal production, issues with X570 motherboard specially designed for 3.rd gen Ryzens, etc.
Moreover the 2nd gen Ryzens are on the market and they are very stable and reliable only with some technical disadvantage relative to the 3rd gen.
So I think it is rather uncertain the price of them.

Zenmastur
Posts: 487
Joined: Sat May 31, 2014 6:28 am

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by Zenmastur » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:39 pm

corres wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:14 am
I think the prices are determined mainly the production expenses, the market situations and the expectation of those products.
Production costs have only the slightest influence on the market price.

As we can read in reports there are some problems with 3rd.gen Ryzens: Capacity of 7 nm production is limited, stability issue caused by the discrepancy between CPU and motherboards, lack of appropriate coolers because of the too low TDP given by AMD and the high density of thermal production, issues with X570 motherboard specially designed for 3.rd gen Ryzens, etc.
I read as much as I can find on 3rd gen Ryzen chips. I haven't heard of ANY problems with them. Sounds like TOTAL BS to me! Looking at sales volume AMD is out producing Intel on the desktop by a significant margin. If anyone is having supply problems its INTEL!

I haven't heard of any significant problems with MB incompatibility with Ryzen 3000. Please give us a few examples!

LACK OF APPROPRIATE COOLERS???? 3rd Gen. Ryzen uses less power than previous generations, so why do you think cooling is an issue? You can buy (off the shelf) air coolers rated at greater than 400 watts TDP. So, which Ryzen chips do you think need more heat dissipation than this?

What issues with X570 MB's are you referring to specifically?

Sounds to me like you're purposely trying to spread fear, uncertainty, and discontent. Good luck with that.


Regards,

Zenmastur
Only 2 defining forces have ever offered to die for you.....Jesus Christ and the American Soldier. One died for your soul, the other for your freedom.

corres
Posts: 1681
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:41 am
Location: hungary

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by corres » Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:24 pm

Zenmastur wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:39 pm
corres wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:14 am
I think the prices are determined mainly the production expenses, the market situations and the expectation of those products.
Production costs have only the slightest influence on the market price.
You are on your humor, are not you?
Zenmastur wrote:
As we can read in reports there are some problems with 3rd.gen Ryzens: Capacity of 7 nm production is limited, stability issue caused by the discrepancy between CPU and motherboards, lack of appropriate coolers because of the too low TDP given by AMD and the high density of thermal production, issues with X570 motherboard specially designed for 3.rd gen Ryzens, etc.
I read as much as I can find on 3rd gen Ryzen chips. I haven't heard of ANY problems with them. Sounds like TOTAL BS to me! Looking at sales volume AMD is out producing Intel on the desktop by a significant margin. If anyone is having supply problems its INTEL!
I haven't heard of any significant problems with MB incompatibility with Ryzen 3000. Please give us a few examples!
LACK OF APPROPRIATE COOLERS???? 3rd Gen. Ryzen uses less power than previous generations, so why do you think cooling is an issue? You can buy (off the shelf) air coolers rated at greater than 400 watts TDP. So, which Ryzen chips do you think need more heat dissipation than this?
What issues with X570 MB's are you referring to specifically?
Sounds to me like you're purposely trying to spread fear, uncertainty, and discontent. Good luck with that.
Regards,
Zenmastur
Are you an AMD fan or do not you like google?
But I propose you to search for Ryzen 9 / 3950x news.

dragontamer5788
Posts: 134
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:05 pm
Full name: Percival Tiglao

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by dragontamer5788 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:03 pm

Dann Corbit wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:07 am
There are links like this one with wildly optimistic prices:
https://wccftech.com/amd-3rd-gen-ryzen- ... -november/
I distrust wccftech entirely. They post a lot of "articles" which are complete fiction. Some of their rumors are true, but many of them have no basis in reality.

Zenmastur
Posts: 487
Joined: Sat May 31, 2014 6:28 am

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by Zenmastur » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:55 pm

corres wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 4:24 pm
Zenmastur wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:39 pm
corres wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:14 am
I think the prices are determined mainly the production expenses, the market situations and the expectation of those products.
Production costs have only the slightest influence on the market price.
You are on your humor, are not you?
Zenmastur wrote:
As we can read in reports there are some problems with 3rd.gen Ryzens: Capacity of 7 nm production is limited, stability issue caused by the discrepancy between CPU and motherboards, lack of appropriate coolers because of the too low TDP given by AMD and the high density of thermal production, issues with X570 motherboard specially designed for 3.rd gen Ryzens, etc.
I read as much as I can find on 3rd gen Ryzen chips. I haven't heard of ANY problems with them. Sounds like TOTAL BS to me! Looking at sales volume AMD is out producing Intel on the desktop by a significant margin. If anyone is having supply problems its INTEL!
I haven't heard of any significant problems with MB incompatibility with Ryzen 3000. Please give us a few examples!
LACK OF APPROPRIATE COOLERS???? 3rd Gen. Ryzen uses less power than previous generations, so why do you think cooling is an issue? You can buy (off the shelf) air coolers rated at greater than 400 watts TDP. So, which Ryzen chips do you think need more heat dissipation than this?
What issues with X570 MB's are you referring to specifically?
Sounds to me like you're purposely trying to spread fear, uncertainty, and discontent. Good luck with that.
Regards,
Zenmastur
Are you an AMD fan or do not you like google?
But I propose you to search for Ryzen 9 / 3950x news.
Why do you care which search engine I use?

What am I supposed to be looking for?

The only thing I see is how bad the Ryzen 9 3950X it beats Intel's top of the line desktop CPU's!

Regards,

Zenmastur
Only 2 defining forces have ever offered to die for you.....Jesus Christ and the American Soldier. One died for your soul, the other for your freedom.

corres
Posts: 1681
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:41 am
Location: hungary

Re: My predicted 3rd Gen threadripper prices

Post by corres » Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:01 pm

If there are everything in order around 3900 series why we can not buy a 3950x processor still?
I would like to build a machine with it and when I searched for news about it I found the issues what I lined up.
Naturally I read not only the self advertisements of AMD but a lot of forum about beta-BIOS-s, about there is no only one firm what is ready to produce official cooler for 3950x, issues with 7 nm produce line, still AMD is working on standardizing the power regulation of 3900 line, etc.
So if you want to find you can find real issues with Ryzen 3rd gen processors.

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