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Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:32 am
by Vinvin
I like to look at https://nextchessmove.com/dev-builds where you can find 20000 test games of the latest SF builds.
But the curve still irregular, so I made a smoothing in Excel : for each version I took the average of the 10 previous ratings. (+ a linear regression inside Excel on the dash line).
The curve start with Stockfish 10 ( 20181129-1445).

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Nice to view !

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:57 pm
by Jouni
Definitely average or more games is needed there! It's always funny when "Update Readme.md" gaves +5 ELO :D !

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:49 pm
by Alayan
The 100 elo regression patch in March is marring the curve. Otherwise, the averaging makes it much nicer. :)

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:29 am
by Vinvin
Updated :
From SF 10 (20181129-1445) to SF 11 (20200118-0044)
Buggy version "20190405-1837" is removed to make a clean graph.

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Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:17 pm
by Dann Corbit
I guess that even with the bad version the correlation coefficient is very close to 1, which means the progression is very nearly linear.
Since Elo is exponential, this is excellent evidence of constantly having exponential progress in the strength of Stockfish.
That is really pretty amazing.
Too bad our salaries don't do that.

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:19 pm
by Raphexon
Dann Corbit wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:17 pm
I guess that even with the bad version the correlation coefficient is very close to 1, which means the progression is very nearly linear.
Since Elo is exponential, this is excellent evidence of constantly exponential progress in the strength of Stockfish.
That is really pretty amazing.
Too bad our salaries don't do that.
Year by year few % growth is exponential.
So your salary probably does show exponential growth.
But prices also go up exponentially.

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:29 pm
by Dann Corbit
I'm paid pretty well, but a graph of my salary over time won't look like the SF Elo graph.
Mine would look more like a square root function, where it rapidly rose after college for a few years then rose more and more slowly.
I do agree that even 0.05% interest growth per year would be exponential. But the constant in the exponent not nearly so desirable as the constant in the SF graph

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:04 am
by Ovyron
Raphexon wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:19 pm
But prices also go up exponentially.
This is by design, if everyone's salary goes up, there's more demand, and not enough supply, so to fix that you increase the price of the supply, and we're back to how we started. The problem is the accumulation of wealth by people that already had wealth, and since their wealth increases faster than people's salary, prices seem to go up faster than salaries.

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 6:04 pm
by Alayan
Could we get an updated graph ? :)

Re: Smoothing SF progress of nextchessmove

Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 12:03 am
by Vinvin
Alayan wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 6:04 pm
Could we get an updated graph ? :)
Sure !

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