Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

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Chessqueen
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Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by Chessqueen » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:16 am


DrCliche
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by DrCliche » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:46 am

Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes.

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Laskos
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by Laskos » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:42 am

DrCliche wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:46 am
Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes.
Just a different worldview and perceptions. I guess the priors of both of you have a similar mean but very different widths. Both of you expected SF NNUE to be stronger than SF Classic by a similar margin, say 124 Elo points, but with different emotional and mental attitude about your confidence in that.

I pictured the priors here:

Image

After these 3 TCEC draws, the posterior estimate of the difference between SF NNUE and SF Classic in his case dropped to 32 Elo points from a priori 124 Elo points, in your case dropped to 113 Elo points from the same 124 a priori Elo points. So he is legit in asking "Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?" and you are right in replying "Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes."

:twisted:

peter
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by peter » Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:15 am

Laskos wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:42 am
DrCliche wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:46 am
Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes.
Just a different worldview and perceptions. I guess the priors of both of you have a similar mean but very different widths. Both of you expected SF NNUE to be stronger than SF Classic by a similar margin, say 124 Elo points, but with different emotional and mental attitude about your confidence in that.

I pictured the priors here:

Image

After these 3 TCEC draws, the posterior estimate of the difference between SF NNUE and SF Classic in his case dropped to 32 Elo points from a priori 124 Elo points, in your case dropped to 113 Elo points from the same 124 a priori Elo points. So he is legit in asking "Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?" and you are right in replying "Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes."

:twisted:
:D
46 games right now in this division with 3 games won, so 43 draws.
Peter.

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Laskos
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by Laskos » Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:14 am

peter wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:15 am
Laskos wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:42 am
DrCliche wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:46 am
Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes.
Just a different worldview and perceptions. I guess the priors of both of you have a similar mean but very different widths. Both of you expected SF NNUE to be stronger than SF Classic by a similar margin, say 124 Elo points, but with different emotional and mental attitude about your confidence in that.

I pictured the priors here:

Image

After these 3 TCEC draws, the posterior estimate of the difference between SF NNUE and SF Classic in his case dropped to 32 Elo points from a priori 124 Elo points, in your case dropped to 113 Elo points from the same 124 a priori Elo points. So he is legit in asking "Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?" and you are right in replying "Sure enough that three draws (lol) at TCEC shouldn't measurably change our extreme confidence, yes."

:twisted:
:D
46 games right now in this division with 3 games won, so 43 draws.
Where is Jeroen? His openings usually avoided this drawfest. With TCEC if one goes with the usual openings the draw rates between top engines are above 90%.

6 more draws of SF NNUE, and DrCliche will start to listen to Chessqueen :lol:

peter
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by peter » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:02 am

Laskos wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:14 am
Where is Jeroen? His openings usually avoided this drawfest.
As far as I just read at TCEC-Rules, Premier Division is played
with a randomized 8-move opening book by Nelson Hernandez
Jeroen's openings will come at Superfinal.
Last edited by peter on Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
Peter.

Nay Lin Tun
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:03 am

It is already 6 games, 6 draws for SFNNUE! :mrgreen: :twisted:

peter
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by peter » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:10 am

Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:03 am
It is already 6 games, 6 draws for SFNNUE! :mrgreen: :twisted:
Yet only one less win than LC0, Stoofvlees (which has lost one game on the other hand too) and Ethereal have each. So no really clear superperformance over the 6 draws neither from any of the other engines.
:wink:
Peter.

mwyoung
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by mwyoung » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:39 am

Chessqueen wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:16 am
https://tcec-chess.com/live.html
Where have we seen results like this before?
Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools,
take on me. Foes 0.

peter
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Re: Are we sure that Stockfish NNUE is better than the Normal Stockfish ?

Post by peter » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:51 am

mwyoung wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:39 am
Chessqueen wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:16 am
https://tcec-chess.com/live.html
Where have we seen results like this before?
In this one Bonus
StockfishNNUE 20200704-StockFiNN-0.2 vs Top4
of latest season

https://tcec-chess.com/#div=nnueg&game=1&season=18

from 56 games hefty 4 ones were won.
Peter.

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