mmt wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:14 am
We don't know what effect the no-stalemate variant would have on human GM draws, though. It could be minimal. Weak players have few draws in their games so that doesn't matter much. Maybe it's possible to go through the database of highly rated human games to look at endings and try to estimate the impact. We do know that it won't be anywhere near to what armageddon scoring with no-black-castling can do and that's still not a radical change except for memorized openings.
I'd expect 10-15% more decisive games in GM play, accounting for the fact that non-fighting draws where both players have no intention whatsoever of playing for the win will remain drawn.
Leela Chess Zero is notoriously risk-averse and so there is all the reasons to believe A0 is too. The giveaway is the winrate from inferior positions against weaker engines. Leela will play for the draw from the start as black instead of keeping the game alive, resulting in being worse at beating up weaker engines.
mmt wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:14 am
Maybe I'm not up-to-date but I haven't seen any forced-opening-lines human chess tournaments and as you said, we mostly need humans to adopt it. I don't think they would - you're basically taking away a part of the game.
Forced openings are exclusive to computer chess. They don't need to be adopted by human players to be relevant for engine programmers, because any engine programmed for standard chess handles it correctly
Something like stalemate=win, armageddon, and so on, on the other hand, cause significant suboptimal play issues in engines that are not made to consider the variant.
mmt wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:14 am
As I wrote earlier, I think forced-openings are a non-starter for humans, so we should compare to classical chess. Making computer games more interesting to watch by making every game a win instead of just half of them in the forced-opening variant is a huge difference.
When a SuFi opening goes 1.5-0.5 it's just as interesting as if armageddon scoring had been used and the game pair went 2-0 instead of 1-1 (remember, with armageddon scoring, it's either 2-0 or 1-1). If the game pair is a dull 1-1 draw in classical chess, it'll be boring. But so would be a armageddon 1-1 with both sides getting an easy win. The busted Latvian from TCEC S18 didn't bring huge excitement despite having 2 wins.
The whole argument about armageddon being exciting thus assumes that the position selected to use armageddon on is right at the limit between (normal) draw and win.
mmt wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:14 am
1. Reverse games would require twice as much time as regular games for humans
2. People don't like draws. It's human psychology to prefer a winner/loser scenario and this theme has been true in sports with overtimes.
3. It allows black to "win" instead of just fighting to draw (assuming very good players). Makes it appear more fair and allows one-time games.
Forced openings are relevant for engine play, not for human chess, I never discussed them for human chess. Human chess doesn't have the problem of increasing hardware strength or increasing software strength. It has issues with pre-arranged draws and massive memorization of lines that, by making players play much better (and less varied) than they would if thinking by themselves in the opening/middlegame, increase the draw rate.
1. If you want to rely on only 1 game, then with armageddon, you also have to make sure that neither side gets a bigger advantage than white gets in classical chess. Over a tournament, or in a match, players get to play both white and black in similar amounts as a balancing element. But over a single game, a drawn game naturally has this balancing element as better play converges towards draws. But when removing draws, one side is going to be winning and opening theory will be very busy to find which lines lead to forced wins and which lines are lost. GMs may not be good enough to find this stuff over the board, but they are good enough to memorize 3500+ engine theory 20-30 ply-deep in relevant lines.
2. Draws can be fun if they're fighting, rare and you get overtime (the equivalent in chess would be shorter games, like was done in the recent MC tour event) to decide a winner. They're also more acceptable if the game is part of a larger tournament.
3. See 1.
4. The players will converge to their correct position in a swiss or round-robin event faster if you have some draws than if you have none. You'd need more games to keep the same reliability.
5. See the thread Laskos just posted :
http://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=75080. He basically proved the point I made about the different scoring system being a coat of paint that doesn't change anything for engine chess. So only the different start position remains as an advantage for armageddon chess, but we already have this without it.