Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

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Leo
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by Leo » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:26 pm

Dann Corbit wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:18 pm
The draw prophecies are going on the assumption that chess is a draw. It is likely true but we do not know that.
Another possibility is that perfect chess is a win for white.
Another possibility is that perfect chess is a win for black.
Play the strongest engine today on the strongest hardware today against the strongest program of ten years ago on the strongest hardware of ten years ago.
I don't think we will see a majority of draws.
[/quote

Really good point.
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Alayan
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by Alayan » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:39 pm

It's too early to call current Stockfish as so strong it would never lose as white from the start position with TCEC time/hardware. We need years of software and hardware development and then see how it goes.

But engines are getting closer and closer to perfect play, and the draw margin of chess is very wide so an engine able to never lose as white from the start position is going to happen.

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Nay Lin Tun
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by Nay Lin Tun » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:36 pm

Leo wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:32 pm
Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:30 pm
If there were no opening book, Stockfish will be minimally able to draw another Stockfish or Leela in 95% of games. If Stockfish is playing against 32 men TB, the extreme condition would be 50 draw 50 losses , which is within 200 elo.


On the other hand, current Stockfish with contempt may be slightly higher rated than 32 men TB in Round Robin rating pool. Prettty crazy right? Actually 32 men TB doesn't store statistics of winning chances or knowledge of maximising chances to win which will subsequently lose some elo. For example, in KRB vs KR, 7 men TB will randomly throw away one rook as it knows that all moves are draw. ( KB vs KR is still draw). Carry behaviour of how this 7 men TB play into 32 men TB, we can see TB will be randomly choose the first move 1. a3 or f3 or h3 or e4 (assuming that except 1.g4, all other 19 moves are likely to be draw). Subsequently, 32 men TB will choose next move like. 1. a3 e5 2. a4 ( It still knows as a draw but it throw away practical winning chances)
Quote: "The size of 8-man tablebases will be 100 times larger than the size of 7-man tablebases. To fully compute them, one will need about 10 PB (10,000 TB) of disk space and 50 TB of RAM. Only the top 10 supercomputers can solve the 8-man problem in 2014. The first 1000-move mate is unlikely to be found until 2020 when a part of a TOP100 supercomputer may be allowed to be used for solving this task."

I cant comprehend a 32 man table base and the storage needed for it.
Not necessarily, you need to create 32 men TB.
It is like hypothetical estimated elo. In Astrobiology, almost all are hypothetical estimates. " How long will take you to travel to andromedra galaxy?".

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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by Uri Blass » Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:09 pm

BrendanJNorman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:19 pm
duncan wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:20 am
BrendanJNorman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:58 am
Talking about "perfect chess" or 32 piece TBs is like talking about aliens or similar.

We have next to no data to analyze any of these things.

Given that Stockfish plays far from perfect chess (very strong is still far from perfect, just as 7 piece tablebases are exponentially far away from 32 piece...imo), my feeling is that it would lose 100-0 to 32 piece tablebases or a "perfect chess" entity.
Do you have an elo estimate for 32 piece. I think Kai would you just give it another 400 elo.
Maybe I'm ignorant on the technology, but to me, 32 piece tablebases=perfect play and perfect play= Elo unlimited.

It should be for example: 1.Nf3 d5 -+ (mate in 42)

Stockfish is say 3680 now (or whatever) and still far from perfect chess...far from perfect.

If Stockfish NNUE is even 3700, probably perfect chess is 5000 or more.

Totally theoretical of course. Even Capablanca thought chess was "solved" and that was in the 1930s. If Stockfish can still lose games, and it can, it is FAR from perfect...so perfect chess would crush SF 100-0 IMO.

Bit of rambling...12.18am and a couple nice German beers downed. :)

I see no proof that perfect chess is going to crush SF 100-0
I even see no proof that stockfish can lose games with white in TCEC conditions.
A proof can be to show me one game that stockfish lose with White from the opening position in TCEC conditions(when stockfish does not use book).

Note that I do not claim that stockfish cannot lose games and only that I do not know.
I do not understand why people post claims with no evidence for them.

Note that stockfish is not deterministic so even if it is possible to beat stockfish with black it does not mean that 100-0 is possible against it.

Leo
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by Leo » Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:10 pm

Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:36 pm
Leo wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:32 pm
Nay Lin Tun wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:30 pm
If there were no opening book, Stockfish will be minimally able to draw another Stockfish or Leela in 95% of games. If Stockfish is playing against 32 men TB, the extreme condition would be 50 draw 50 losses , which is within 200 elo.


On the other hand, current Stockfish with contempt may be slightly higher rated than 32 men TB in Round Robin rating pool. Prettty crazy right? Actually 32 men TB doesn't store statistics of winning chances or knowledge of maximising chances to win which will subsequently lose some elo. For example, in KRB vs KR, 7 men TB will randomly throw away one rook as it knows that all moves are draw. ( KB vs KR is still draw). Carry behaviour of how this 7 men TB play into 32 men TB, we can see TB will be randomly choose the first move 1. a3 or f3 or h3 or e4 (assuming that except 1.g4, all other 19 moves are likely to be draw). Subsequently, 32 men TB will choose next move like. 1. a3 e5 2. a4 ( It still knows as a draw but it throw away practical winning chances)
Quote: "The size of 8-man tablebases will be 100 times larger than the size of 7-man tablebases. To fully compute them, one will need about 10 PB (10,000 TB) of disk space and 50 TB of RAM. Only the top 10 supercomputers can solve the 8-man problem in 2014. The first 1000-move mate is unlikely to be found until 2020 when a part of a TOP100 supercomputer may be allowed to be used for solving this task."

I cant comprehend a 32 man table base and the storage needed for it.
Not necessarily, you need to create 32 men TB.
It is like hypothetical estimated elo. In Astrobiology, almost all are hypothetical estimates. " How long will take you to travel to andromedra galaxy?".
Why do you say I need to create a 32 men TB ? I dont understand. In my mind ?
Advanced Micro Devices fan.

Dann Corbit
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by Dann Corbit » Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:18 pm

Uri Blass wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:09 pm

I even see no proof that stockfish can lose games with white in TCEC conditions.
A proof can be to show me one game that stockfish lose with White from the opening position in TCEC conditions(when stockfish does not use book).
I guess that the main difficulty here is that there are exactly zero games matching those conditions.
I guess further that you are describing the current NNUE stockfish.

Here is evidence that with a very drawish opening (1.b4) a very strong program (LC0 with two 2080 Super GPUs) can lose at long time control on powerful hardware:
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BrendanJNorman
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by BrendanJNorman » Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:10 am

Uri Blass wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:09 pm
BrendanJNorman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:19 pm
duncan wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:20 am
BrendanJNorman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:58 am
Talking about "perfect chess" or 32 piece TBs is like talking about aliens or similar.

We have next to no data to analyze any of these things.

Given that Stockfish plays far from perfect chess (very strong is still far from perfect, just as 7 piece tablebases are exponentially far away from 32 piece...imo), my feeling is that it would lose 100-0 to 32 piece tablebases or a "perfect chess" entity.
Do you have an elo estimate for 32 piece. I think Kai would you just give it another 400 elo.
Maybe I'm ignorant on the technology, but to me, 32 piece tablebases=perfect play and perfect play= Elo unlimited.

It should be for example: 1.Nf3 d5 -+ (mate in 42)

Stockfish is say 3680 now (or whatever) and still far from perfect chess...far from perfect.

If Stockfish NNUE is even 3700, probably perfect chess is 5000 or more.

Totally theoretical of course. Even Capablanca thought chess was "solved" and that was in the 1930s. If Stockfish can still lose games, and it can, it is FAR from perfect...so perfect chess would crush SF 100-0 IMO.

Bit of rambling...12.18am and a couple nice German beers downed. :)

I see no proof that perfect chess is going to crush SF 100-0
I even see no proof that stockfish can lose games with white in TCEC conditions.
A proof can be to show me one game that stockfish lose with White from the opening position in TCEC conditions(when stockfish does not use book).

Note that I do not claim that stockfish cannot lose games and only that I do not know.
I do not understand why people post claims with no evidence for them.

Note that stockfish is not deterministic so even if it is possible to beat stockfish with black it does not mean that 100-0 is possible against it.
I didn't "claim" anything and I actually said "Maybe I'm ignorant on the technology" - this was followed by an opinion.

So calm down, sister.

My opinion was that Stockfish, despite its enormous strength, is still far from perfect chess and that given that...

1. we only have 7 man tablebases at the moment
2. this is less than 25% of theoretical "perfect chess" (with 32 man TBs)
3. the strength of play increases exponentially with each new bigger set

We have NO IDEA what perfect chess looks like...and neither does Stockfish.

If/when perfect chess arrives, we might not even recognize what the hell is going on on the board.

A complete revolution in pattern recognition.

It is like a monkey in the Amazon jungle trying to understand what is airplane flying over.

Again, just my opinion, don't get too excited.

OneTrickPony
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by OneTrickPony » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:54 pm

Here is evidence that with a very drawish opening (1.b4) a very strong program (LC0 with two 2080 Super GPUs) can lose at long time control on powerful hardware:
Leela thinks 1.b4 gives advantage for black at around 53.5%. This is close to equivalent of playing black from starting position.
Additionally it's the kind of position Leela is worse at because you don't get anything of the sort from main lines (bishop pair + unbalanced pawn structure). Still, the claim is about SF, not Leela. Leela is too weak tactically to hold it against very strong entity consistently.
We have NO IDEA what perfect chess looks like...and neither does Stockfish.

If/when perfect chess arrives, we might not even recognize what the hell is going on on the board.
Maybe but I think it's very unlikely. I think if it was the case that perfect chess look so amazingly different we would somehow see at least some of it sometimes with some engine stumbling into it or some correspondence player showing it.
As it is correspondence chess is completely hopeless when it comes to winning against competent opponent who just wants to draw with black. All correspondence wins come from:

1)someone failing to use a computer or being so bad at it that it's equivalent of not using it
2)typos, misclicks etc.
3)choosing very adventurous openings to have fun or prove the point

mwyoung
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by mwyoung » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:05 pm

BrendanJNorman wrote:
Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:10 am
Uri Blass wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:09 pm
BrendanJNorman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:19 pm
duncan wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:20 am
BrendanJNorman wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:58 am
Talking about "perfect chess" or 32 piece TBs is like talking about aliens or similar.

We have next to no data to analyze any of these things.

Given that Stockfish plays far from perfect chess (very strong is still far from perfect, just as 7 piece tablebases are exponentially far away from 32 piece...imo), my feeling is that it would lose 100-0 to 32 piece tablebases or a "perfect chess" entity.
Do you have an elo estimate for 32 piece. I think Kai would you just give it another 400 elo.
Maybe I'm ignorant on the technology, but to me, 32 piece tablebases=perfect play and perfect play= Elo unlimited.

It should be for example: 1.Nf3 d5 -+ (mate in 42)

Stockfish is say 3680 now (or whatever) and still far from perfect chess...far from perfect.

If Stockfish NNUE is even 3700, probably perfect chess is 5000 or more.

Totally theoretical of course. Even Capablanca thought chess was "solved" and that was in the 1930s. If Stockfish can still lose games, and it can, it is FAR from perfect...so perfect chess would crush SF 100-0 IMO.

Bit of rambling...12.18am and a couple nice German beers downed. :)

I see no proof that perfect chess is going to crush SF 100-0
I even see no proof that stockfish can lose games with white in TCEC conditions.
A proof can be to show me one game that stockfish lose with White from the opening position in TCEC conditions(when stockfish does not use book).

Note that I do not claim that stockfish cannot lose games and only that I do not know.
I do not understand why people post claims with no evidence for them.

Note that stockfish is not deterministic so even if it is possible to beat stockfish with black it does not mean that 100-0 is possible against it.
I didn't "claim" anything and I actually said "Maybe I'm ignorant on the technology" - this was followed by an opinion.

So calm down, sister.

My opinion was that Stockfish, despite its enormous strength, is still far from perfect chess and that given that...

1. we only have 7 man tablebases at the moment
2. this is less than 25% of theoretical "perfect chess" (with 32 man TBs)
3. the strength of play increases exponentially with each new bigger set

We have NO IDEA what perfect chess looks like...and neither does Stockfish.

If/when perfect chess arrives, we might not even recognize what the hell is going on on the board.

A complete revolution in pattern recognition.

It is like a monkey in the Amazon jungle trying to understand what is airplane flying over.

Again, just my opinion, don't get too excited.
I agree. People need to understand that Stockfish can not even play 7 man positions correctly. And we know this because of tablebases. Or perfect play with 7 man positions.

So what do you think a 32 man tablebase would do with today's Stockfish. It would crush Stockfish into fish paste. :lol:
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But my words like silent raindrops fell. And echoed in the wells of silence.

BrendanJNorman
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Re: Perfect chess engine elo ( 32 men TB) can be within 200 of Stocfish in Tcec LTC conditions

Post by BrendanJNorman » Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:24 pm

Dann Corbit wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:18 pm
Uri Blass wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:09 pm

I even see no proof that stockfish can lose games with white in TCEC conditions.
A proof can be to show me one game that stockfish lose with White from the opening position in TCEC conditions(when stockfish does not use book).
I guess that the main difficulty here is that there are exactly zero games matching those conditions.
I guess further that you are describing the current NNUE stockfish.

Here is evidence that with a very drawish opening (1.b4) a very strong program (LC0 with two 2080 Super GPUs) can lose at long time control on powerful hardware:
Who told you 1.b4 was "drawish"?

Just because an opponent can easily equalize since you neglected to control the center, it doesn't mean that the opening is drawish.

I would totally expect Stockfish to beat any engine who sacrifices the advantage of the first move with a silly opening like 1.b4.

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