Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

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zullil
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by zullil » Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:02 pm

Harvey Williamson wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:10 pm
To my surprise, Lc0 (network 384x30-t40-1573.pb) with 100M nodes reports a 14.8% chance that White draws this. (And a 4.6% chance that White wins. :roll: )

0103 16:37:57.553014 140114491590400 ../../src/mcts/stoppers/stoppers.cc:64] Stopped search: Reached visits limit: 100000244>=100000000
0103 16:37:57.554639 140114491590400 ../../src/chess/uciloop.cc:219] << info depth 21 seldepth 64 time 6037676 nodes 100000244 score cp -229 wdl 46 148 806 hashfull 389 nps 16557 tbhits 538 multipv 1 pv

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Ovyron
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Ovyron » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:56 am

zullil wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:02 pm
To my surprise, Lc0 (network 384x30-t40-1573.pb) with 100M nodes reports a 14.8% chance that White draws this.
What were you expecting? :)

1. g4 d5 2. g5 e5 3. d4 exd4 4. Nf3 c5 5. Bg2 Ne7 6. c3 dxc3 7. Nxc3 Nbc6 8. O-O d4 9. Ne4 Ng6 10. a3 Bg4 11. Bd2 Bd6 12. Rc1 O-O 13. Nxc5 Bxc5 14. Rxc5 Qd7 15. Qb3 Rad8 16. Re1 Be6 17. Qd3 Rfe8 18. e4 b6 19. Rcc1 Bg4 20. Rxc6 Qxc6 21. Nxd4 Qc5 22. Be3 Ne5 23. Qc3 Qxc3 24. bxc3 Rc8 25. f3 Be6 26. Nb5 Red8 27. Bd4 Nc6 28. Be3 a6 29. Nd4 Ne5 30. Rc1 Nc4 31. Bf4


Uri Blass
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Uri Blass » Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:15 pm

Ovyron wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:56 am
zullil wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:02 pm
To my surprise, Lc0 (network 384x30-t40-1573.pb) with 100M nodes reports a 14.8% chance that White draws this.
What were you expecting? :)

1. g4 d5 2. g5 e5 3. d4 exd4 4. Nf3 c5 5. Bg2 Ne7 6. c3 dxc3 7. Nxc3 Nbc6 8. O-O d4 9. Ne4 Ng6 10. a3 Bg4 11. Bd2 Bd6 12. Rc1 O-O 13. Nxc5 Bxc5 14. Rxc5 Qd7 15. Qb3 Rad8 16. Re1 Be6 17. Qd3 Rfe8 18. e4 b6 19. Rcc1 Bg4 20. Rxc6 Qxc6 21. Nxd4 Qc5 22. Be3 Ne5 23. Qc3 Qxc3 24. bxc3 Rc8 25. f3 Be6 26. Nb5 Red8 27. Bd4 Nc6 28. Be3 a6 29. Nd4 Ne5 30. Rc1 Nc4 31. Bf4

certainly expecting 0% for white to win the game.

zullil
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by zullil » Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:15 pm

Ovyron wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:56 am
zullil wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:02 pm
To my surprise, Lc0 (network 384x30-t40-1573.pb) with 100M nodes reports a 14.8% chance that White draws this.
What were you expecting? :)

1. g4 d5 2. g5 e5 3. d4 exd4 4. Nf3 c5 5. Bg2 Ne7 6. c3 dxc3 7. Nxc3 Nbc6 8. O-O d4 9. Ne4 Ng6 10. a3 Bg4 11. Bd2 Bd6 12. Rc1 O-O 13. Nxc5 Bxc5 14. Rxc5 Qd7 15. Qb3 Rad8 16. Re1 Be6 17. Qd3 Rfe8 18. e4 b6 19. Rcc1 Bg4 20. Rxc6 Qxc6 21. Nxd4 Qc5 22. Be3 Ne5 23. Qc3 Qxc3 24. bxc3 Rc8 25. f3 Be6 26. Nb5 Red8 27. Bd4 Nc6 28. Be3 a6 29. Nd4 Ne5 30. Rc1 Nc4 31. Bf4

I was expecting a much lower probability of White drawing this. According to Stockfish-dev, this game is over. Evaluation is -3.21 for 31. Bf4 (and Stockfish thinks that's the better of the two options you just had). Good luck, in any case.

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Harvey Williamson
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Harvey Williamson » Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:22 pm


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Ovyron
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Ovyron » Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:23 pm

zullil wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:15 pm
According to Stockfish-dev, this game is over. Evaluation is -3.21 for 31. Bf4 (and Stockfish thinks that's the better of the two options you just had).
But this isn't new info, this was posted 4 days before the game started:
Zenmastur wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:51 am
With proper hardware (proper meaning very powerful) and sufficient time I believe it's possible to “prove beyond a reasonable doubt” that moves like 1.g4 are in fact losses. I'm not saying they can be calculated all the way to mate, but that they can be calculated to +7/-7 or better/worse. I tried this with 1.g4 right after I started playing CC and couldn't quite get there. IIRC the best I could get after about a week of analysis was -3.xx or so. This was on 5M-6M nps machine with 16 GB of TT and 6-man EGTBes. I plan on trying this again when I build my new system and, before I increase my ICCF game load significantly. I think this is just a matter of how powerful a machine you use. If I had a dual EPYC 7742 machine with 2 or more TB or RAM, 7-man EGTBs and a week of spare time (2 at the most) I think 1.g4 would be history!
(emphasis mine)

According to this, no matter what white played, it can't stop some -3.xx eval. So you can't say the game was over before it started, unless you claim you couldn't defend 1.g4 yourself.

Raphexon
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Raphexon » Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:07 pm

I don't really trust SF with opening evals.
Even with something like the Bongcloud Stockfish doesn't really boom until maybe way beyond depth 50. And we all know Bongcloud is pretty much a 100% loss against any strong engine no matter who's defending.
It will just hover between +2 and +2.3 for a very long time.

Leela on the other hand can see much more accurately just how bad the Bongcloud truly is.

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Ovyron
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Ovyron » Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:10 pm

Raphexon wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:07 pm
And we all know Bongcloud is pretty much a 100% loss against any strong engine no matter who's defending.
It will just hover between +2 and +2.3 for a very long time.
Is that so?

Well, if I draw Harvey then the Bongcloud would be next on my list to try to defend :D

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Ovyron
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Ovyron » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:31 am

1. g4 d5 2. g5 e5 3. d4 exd4 4. Nf3 c5 5. Bg2 Ne7 6. c3 dxc3 7. Nxc3 Nbc6 8. O-O d4 9. Ne4 Ng6 10. a3 Bg4 11. Bd2 Bd6 12. Rc1 O-O 13. Nxc5 Bxc5 14. Rxc5 Qd7 15. Qb3 Rad8 16. Re1 Be6 17. Qd3 Rfe8 18. e4 b6 19. Rcc1 Bg4 20. Rxc6 Qxc6 21. Nxd4 Qc5 22. Be3 Ne5 23. Qc3 Qxc3 24. bxc3 Rc8 25. f3 Be6 26. Nb5 Red8 27. Bd4 Nc6 28. Be3 a6 29. Nd4 Ne5 30. Rc1 Nc4 31. Bf4 Nxa3 32. Bf1


Raphexon
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Re: Dylan Sharp Vs. Harvey Williamson (G4)

Post by Raphexon » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:46 am

Ovyron wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:10 pm
Raphexon wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:07 pm
And we all know Bongcloud is pretty much a 100% loss against any strong engine no matter who's defending.
It will just hover between +2 and +2.3 for a very long time.
Is that so?

Well, if I draw Harvey then the Bongcloud would be next on my list to try to defend :D
I obviously can't formally prove the game theoretic value.
But regardless I am 99.8% sure it's a loss.

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