statistic magicians help required
Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:55 pm
hi
I'd like to make some assumption and I need some good knowledge of statistics that I don't have.
Those are my assumptions, please correct me where I'm wrong.
cutechess cli reports elo and a uncertainity window.
Score of Vajolet dev vs Vajolet base: 2425 - 2290 - 5586 [0.507] 10301
Elo difference: 4.55 +/- 4.53
here the uncertainity is +/- 4.53, is this a confidence interval of 95% in sense of gaussian variable?
in this case sigma is 4,53 /2 = 2,265 and variance is 2,265^2 = 5,130225
assuming that I do 2 tournaments and assuming the result statistically indipendent ( problably this is not true at all....) and that Elo results is a gaussian probablity variable we have:
Elo_gain = elo1 + elo2
sigma_tot^2 = sigma1^2 + sigma2^2
so I have combined result of elo1+elo2 +/- 2*sqrt(sigma_tot^2)
ok.. magician please let me know if I have made some orrible errors with variance, signa, statistical independence and so on.... thank you all
I'd like to make some assumption and I need some good knowledge of statistics that I don't have.
Those are my assumptions, please correct me where I'm wrong.
cutechess cli reports elo and a uncertainity window.
Score of Vajolet dev vs Vajolet base: 2425 - 2290 - 5586 [0.507] 10301
Elo difference: 4.55 +/- 4.53
here the uncertainity is +/- 4.53, is this a confidence interval of 95% in sense of gaussian variable?
in this case sigma is 4,53 /2 = 2,265 and variance is 2,265^2 = 5,130225
assuming that I do 2 tournaments and assuming the result statistically indipendent ( problably this is not true at all....) and that Elo results is a gaussian probablity variable we have:
Elo_gain = elo1 + elo2
sigma_tot^2 = sigma1^2 + sigma2^2
so I have combined result of elo1+elo2 +/- 2*sqrt(sigma_tot^2)
ok.. magician please let me know if I have made some orrible errors with variance, signa, statistical independence and so on.... thank you all