Guess the results of the TCEC superfinal and win a copy of Komodo 9.3.
http://komodochess.com/store/tcec-contest.php
(This contest has no affiliation with the TCEC or it's organizers.)
Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)
Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw
-
Jesse Gersenson
- Posts: 593
- Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:43 am
-
shrapnel
- Posts: 1339
- Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:43 am
- Location: New Delhi, India
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)
What of the people who already have 1 Year subscriptions and will get it anyway ? Will you extend it to 2 years ? 
i7 5960X @ 4.1 Ghz, 64 GB G.Skill RipJaws RAM, Twin Asus ROG Strix OC 11 GB Geforce 2080 Tis
-
Dr.Wael Deeb
- Posts: 9773
- Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:44 pm
- Location: Amman,Jordan
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)
shrapnel wrote:What of the people who already have 1 Year subscriptions and will get it anyway ? Will you extend it to 2 years ?
_No one can hit as hard as life.But it ain’t about how hard you can hit.It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.How much you can take and keep moving forward….
-
Ajedrecista
- Posts: 1968
- Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:04 pm
- Location: Madrid, Spain.
Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11th).
Hello Jesse:
Once the deadline was reached, I write my particular forecast after 24 games are played (+2 =22 -0 for Komodo).
I assigned probabilities in the following way: from Komodo POV, if there are w wins, d draws and l loses, the probabilities of win, draw or lose in the next game are prob_X = (X + 1)/(w + d + l + 3), where X = {w, d, l}. I do not remember the name of this well-known kind of assignation of probabilities, so someone write the name, please. Here is the code:
After 1e+7 simulations:
The mode of that discrete distribution is 53-47 in favour of Komodo, so this is my bet with no possible reward given the fact that I did not answer before the deadline.
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
Once the deadline was reached, I write my particular forecast after 24 games are played (+2 =22 -0 for Komodo).
I assigned probabilities in the following way: from Komodo POV, if there are w wins, d draws and l loses, the probabilities of win, draw or lose in the next game are prob_X = (X + 1)/(w + d + l + 3), where X = {w, d, l}. I do not remember the name of this well-known kind of assignation of probabilities, so someone write the name, please. Here is the code:
Code: Select all
program TCEC_forecast
implicit none
integer,parameter :: simul = 10000000 ! 1e+7 simulations.
integer :: i, j, K, SF, d, n(0:200)
real(KIND=2) :: probK, probSF, PRN, t0, t1
real :: points_K(1:simul)
t0 = cpu_clock@() ! Start.
do i = 1,simul
K = 2; SF = 0; d = 22 ! The result after the first 24 games.
do j = 25, 100
probK = (K + 1d0)/(K + SF + d + 3d0) ! +3 due to {win, draw, lose}.
probSF = (SF + 1d0)/(K + SF+ d + 3d0) ! +3 due to {win, draw, lose}.
PRN = random@() ! PRN: pseudo-random number.
if (PRN < probK) then
K = K + 1 ! Komodo win.
else if (PRN > (1d0 - probSF)) then
SF = SF + 1 ! SF win.
else
d = d + 1 ! Draw.
end if
end do
points_K(i) = K + 0.5*d
end do
n = 0
do i = 1, simul
do j = 26, 178 ! Minimum of Komodo: 13 points = 26 half points; maximum of Komodo: 89 points = 178 half points.
if (j == 2.0*points_K(i)) then
n(j) =n(j) + 1
exit
end if
end do
end do
write(*,'(I8,A)') simul, ' simulations.'
write(*,*)
write(*,'(A)') ' K - SF Simulations'
write(*,*)
do i = 26, 178
write(*,'(F4.1,A,F4.1,A,I8,A,F6.2,A)') 0.5*i, ' - ', 100.0 - 0.5*i, ' ', n(i), ' (', 1d2*n(i)/simul, ' %)'
end do
write(*,*)
t1 = cpu_clock@() ! Finish.
write(*,'(A,F7.2,A)') 'Elapsed time: ',(t1-t0)/3d9, ' seconds.' ! 3 GHz in my PC.
end program TCEC_forecastCode: Select all
10000000 simulations.
K - SF Simulations
13.0 - 87.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
13.5 - 86.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
14.0 - 86.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
14.5 - 85.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
15.0 - 85.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
15.5 - 84.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
16.0 - 84.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
16.5 - 83.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
17.0 - 83.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
17.5 - 82.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
18.0 - 82.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
18.5 - 81.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
19.0 - 81.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
19.5 - 80.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
20.0 - 80.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
20.5 - 79.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
21.0 - 79.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
21.5 - 78.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
22.0 - 78.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
22.5 - 77.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
23.0 - 77.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
23.5 - 76.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
24.0 - 76.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
24.5 - 75.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
25.0 - 75.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
25.5 - 74.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
26.0 - 74.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
26.5 - 73.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
27.0 - 73.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
27.5 - 72.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
28.0 - 72.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
28.5 - 71.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
29.0 - 71.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
29.5 - 70.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
30.0 - 70.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
30.5 - 69.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
31.0 - 69.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
31.5 - 68.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
32.0 - 68.0 1 ( 0.00 %)
32.5 - 67.5 1 ( 0.00 %)
33.0 - 67.0 1 ( 0.00 %)
33.5 - 66.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
34.0 - 66.0 4 ( 0.00 %)
34.5 - 65.5 4 ( 0.00 %)
35.0 - 65.0 7 ( 0.00 %)
35.5 - 64.5 13 ( 0.00 %)
36.0 - 64.0 12 ( 0.00 %)
36.5 - 63.5 19 ( 0.00 %)
37.0 - 63.0 45 ( 0.00 %)
37.5 - 62.5 49 ( 0.00 %)
38.0 - 62.0 101 ( 0.00 %)
38.5 - 61.5 120 ( 0.00 %)
39.0 - 61.0 188 ( 0.00 %)
39.5 - 60.5 295 ( 0.00 %)
40.0 - 60.0 397 ( 0.00 %)
40.5 - 59.5 586 ( 0.01 %)
41.0 - 59.0 915 ( 0.01 %)
41.5 - 58.5 1152 ( 0.01 %)
42.0 - 58.0 1754 ( 0.02 %)
42.5 - 57.5 2516 ( 0.03 %)
43.0 - 57.0 3458 ( 0.03 %)
43.5 - 56.5 4808 ( 0.05 %)
44.0 - 56.0 6869 ( 0.07 %)
44.5 - 55.5 9416 ( 0.09 %)
45.0 - 55.0 13020 ( 0.13 %)
45.5 - 54.5 17832 ( 0.18 %)
46.0 - 54.0 24565 ( 0.25 %)
46.5 - 53.5 33482 ( 0.33 %)
47.0 - 53.0 45844 ( 0.46 %)
47.5 - 52.5 61816 ( 0.62 %)
48.0 - 52.0 83379 ( 0.83 %)
48.5 - 51.5 113676 ( 1.14 %)
49.0 - 51.0 151159 ( 1.51 %)
49.5 - 50.5 201821 ( 2.02 %)
50.0 - 50.0 269817 ( 2.70 %)
50.5 - 49.5 356723 ( 3.57 %)
51.0 - 49.0 471932 ( 4.72 %)
51.5 - 48.5 577405 ( 5.77 %)
52.0 - 48.0 655303 ( 6.55 %)
52.5 - 47.5 699745 ( 7.00 %)
53.0 - 47.0 713783 ( 7.14 %)
53.5 - 46.5 699681 ( 7.00 %)
54.0 - 46.0 665239 ( 6.65 %)
54.5 - 45.5 615738 ( 6.16 %)
55.0 - 45.0 557825 ( 5.58 %)
55.5 - 44.5 494528 ( 4.95 %)
56.0 - 44.0 432385 ( 4.32 %)
56.5 - 43.5 371393 ( 3.71 %)
57.0 - 43.0 315378 ( 3.15 %)
57.5 - 42.5 264370 ( 2.64 %)
58.0 - 42.0 219208 ( 2.19 %)
58.5 - 41.5 179163 ( 1.79 %)
59.0 - 41.0 145748 ( 1.46 %)
59.5 - 40.5 116902 ( 1.17 %)
60.0 - 40.0 92393 ( 0.92 %)
60.5 - 39.5 72826 ( 0.73 %)
61.0 - 39.0 56881 ( 0.57 %)
61.5 - 38.5 44185 ( 0.44 %)
62.0 - 38.0 33776 ( 0.34 %)
62.5 - 37.5 25683 ( 0.26 %)
63.0 - 37.0 19404 ( 0.19 %)
63.5 - 36.5 14617 ( 0.15 %)
64.0 - 36.0 10925 ( 0.11 %)
64.5 - 35.5 7942 ( 0.08 %)
65.0 - 35.0 5813 ( 0.06 %)
65.5 - 34.5 4185 ( 0.04 %)
66.0 - 34.0 2966 ( 0.03 %)
66.5 - 33.5 2057 ( 0.02 %)
67.0 - 33.0 1518 ( 0.02 %)
67.5 - 32.5 1038 ( 0.01 %)
68.0 - 32.0 721 ( 0.01 %)
68.5 - 31.5 479 ( 0.00 %)
69.0 - 31.0 348 ( 0.00 %)
69.5 - 30.5 245 ( 0.00 %)
70.0 - 30.0 155 ( 0.00 %)
70.5 - 29.5 90 ( 0.00 %)
71.0 - 29.0 60 ( 0.00 %)
71.5 - 28.5 33 ( 0.00 %)
72.0 - 28.0 34 ( 0.00 %)
72.5 - 27.5 8 ( 0.00 %)
73.0 - 27.0 10 ( 0.00 %)
73.5 - 26.5 9 ( 0.00 %)
74.0 - 26.0 2 ( 0.00 %)
74.5 - 25.5 4 ( 0.00 %)
75.0 - 25.0 1 ( 0.00 %)
75.5 - 24.5 1 ( 0.00 %)
76.0 - 24.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
76.5 - 23.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
77.0 - 23.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
77.5 - 22.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
78.0 - 22.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
78.5 - 21.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
79.0 - 21.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
79.5 - 20.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
80.0 - 20.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
80.5 - 19.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
81.0 - 19.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
81.5 - 18.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
82.0 - 18.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
82.5 - 17.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
83.0 - 17.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
83.5 - 16.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
84.0 - 16.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
84.5 - 15.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
85.0 - 15.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
85.5 - 14.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
86.0 - 14.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
86.5 - 13.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
87.0 - 13.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
87.5 - 12.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
88.0 - 12.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
88.5 - 11.5 0 ( 0.00 %)
89.0 - 11.0 0 ( 0.00 %)
Elapsed time: 93.49 seconds.Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
-
Laskos
- Posts: 10948
- Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
- Full name: Kai Laskos
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest - ends 18:00 CET (Nov 11)
52:48 for Komodo, but it's post deadline.Jesse Gersenson wrote:Guess the results of the TCEC superfinal and win a copy of Komodo 9.3.
http://komodochess.com/store/tcec-contest.php
(This contest has no affiliation with the TCEC or it's organizers.)
-
Marek Soszynski
- Posts: 582
- Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 7:28 pm
- Location: Birmingham, England
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11
I thought the competition asked for number of wins rather than points.
Marek Soszynski
-
Jesse Gersenson
- Posts: 593
- Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:43 am
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11
Yes, it asked for number of wins and number of losses. Each entry was given microsecond timestamps.
-
Laskos
- Posts: 10948
- Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:21 pm
- Full name: Kai Laskos
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11
OK, then let's say 10:6 wins:losses of Komodo. How does one calculate the deviation from the correct answer?Jesse Gersenson wrote:Yes, it asked for number of wins and number of losses. Each entry was given microsecond timestamps.
Giga microsecond post time-stamp prediction.
-
MikeB
- Posts: 4889
- Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2006 6:34 am
- Location: Pen Argyl, Pennsylvania
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11
+1000 it did - But you can compute the score from wins and losses a=everything else is draw.Marek Soszynski wrote:I thought the competition asked for number of wins rather than points.
-
Dann Corbit
- Posts: 12540
- Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:57 pm
- Location: Redmond, WA USA
Re: Komodo 9.3x give-away contest, ends 18:00h CET (Nov., 11
But if you just gave a score, how would you differentiate between 50 wins and 50 losses and 100 draws, for instance?MikeB wrote:+1000 it did - But you can compute the score from wins and losses a=everything else is draw.Marek Soszynski wrote:I thought the competition asked for number of wins rather than points.