Random game mating probabilities
Some data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 3,747,489 checkmates (15.31%)
Of the checkmates, 1,872,426 were White getting checkmated (49.96%).
Of the checkmates, 1,875,063 were Black getting checkmated (50.04%).
There were 1,499,382 stalemates (6.13%)
Of the stalemates, 754,025 were White getting stalemated (50.29%).
Of the stalemates, 745,357 were Black getting stalemated (49.71%).
Random game mating probabilities
Moderators: hgm, Rebel, chrisw
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Random game repetition draw probabilities
Random game repetition draw probabilities
Some more data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 629,639 repetition draws (2.57%)
Of the repetition draws, 315,765 were White making the drawing move causing the repeated position (50.15%).
Of the repetition draws, 313,874 were Black making the drawing move causing the repeated position (49.85%).
Some more data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 629,639 repetition draws (2.57%)
Of the repetition draws, 315,765 were White making the drawing move causing the repeated position (50.15%).
Of the repetition draws, 313,874 were Black making the drawing move causing the repeated position (49.85%).
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Random game fifty move draw probabilities
Random game fifty move draw probabilities
Some more data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 5,484,539 fifty move draws (22.41%)
Of the fifty move draws, 2,744,587 were White making the drawing move (50.04%).
Of the fifty move draws, 2,739,952 were Black making the drawing move (49.96%).
Some more data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 5,484,539 fifty move draws (22.41%)
Of the fifty move draws, 2,744,587 were White making the drawing move (50.04%).
Of the fifty move draws, 2,739,952 were Black making the drawing move (49.96%).
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Random game insufficient material draw probabilities
Random game insufficient material draw probabilities
Even more data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 13,117,060 insufficient material draws (53.59%)
Of the insufficient material draws, 6,568,020 were White making the drawing move (50.07%).
Of the insufficient material draws, 6,549,040 were Black making the drawing move (49.93%).
Even more data from 24,478,109 games, each made from randomly generated moves:
There were 13,117,060 insufficient material draws (53.59%)
Of the insufficient material draws, 6,568,020 were White making the drawing move (50.07%).
Of the insufficient material draws, 6,549,040 were Black making the drawing move (49.93%).
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Some comments
Some comments
1) Randomness was provided by /dev/urandom
2) The double anomaly comes from the stalemate numbers. Of the five ways a random game can end, only stalemating has a majority of the games ending with a Black move. Also, only stalemating has a White/Black spread greater than a half percentage point (0.58%). Why?
3) Insufficient material = KvK, KNvK, or KBvK.
4) Fifty move trumps repetition.
1) Randomness was provided by /dev/urandom
2) The double anomaly comes from the stalemate numbers. Of the five ways a random game can end, only stalemating has a majority of the games ending with a Black move. Also, only stalemating has a White/Black spread greater than a half percentage point (0.58%). Why?
3) Insufficient material = KvK, KNvK, or KBvK.
4) Fifty move trumps repetition.
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Full trump hierarchy
Full trump hierarchy
checkmate > stalemate > fifty move > insufficient > repetition
Most pairs are mutually exclusive. The four which aren't:
checkmate, fifty move
stalemate, fifty move
stalemate, insufficient
fifty move, repetition
checkmate > stalemate > fifty move > insufficient > repetition
Most pairs are mutually exclusive. The four which aren't:
checkmate, fifty move
stalemate, fifty move
stalemate, insufficient
fifty move, repetition
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Re: Full trump hierarchy
Checkmate has preference to fifty move rule so I think that you can consider the pair checkmate, fifty move to be impossible(because it means that the fifty move rule has no relevance).sje wrote:Full trump hierarchy
checkmate > stalemate > fifty move > insufficient > repetition
Most pairs are mutually exclusive. The four which aren't:
checkmate, fifty move
stalemate, fifty move
stalemate, insufficient
fifty move, repetition