WCC 2016 thread

[Sean Evans]

Hi, I thought I would get things started with a first post and we can go from here! I am hoping for an interesting match with some great games. I expect that Magnus will win in the end!

http://en.chessbase.com/post/before-the-match-2

Cordially,

Sean

[Sean Evans]

Carlsen-Karjakin: What The Experts Say

[Dirt]

Carlsen-Karjakin: What The Experts Say

I think that everyone in the comments was too optimistic about Sergey's chances. I'd put them at around 10%.

[Sean Evans]

Chess group sues to block websites from reporting on tournament

By Julia Marsh November 8, 2016 | 8:04pm | Updated

In a surprise gambit, the organizers of the World Chess Championship have sued to block three websites from reporting on plays from the tournament that opens Friday in New York.

World Chess U.S. is asking a Manhattan federal court judge to issue an injunction before Nov. 11, arguing that the tournament has exclusive rights to broadcasting the event.

For the first time this year World Chess will offer a virtual reality live-feed of the 12-game tournament for $15 a person.

In the past, millions of chess fans have tracked championship games through sites like Chessgames Services, which has no direct video of the event but replicates players’ moves on a duplicate board.

“I regard [the suit] as litigative bullying,” said Daniel Freeman, owner of Chessgames.

Freeman said he reports the facts of the game as they trickle out on social media. Freeman said he has a right to reports
that information.

World Chess officials argue in the new Manhattan federal lawsuit that the sites profit off the tournament without spending any time or money to organize the event.

Norwegian Magnus Carlsen will face off against Russian Sergey Karjakin for $1 million prize.

The match will be held in the Fulton Market building in lower Manhattan. New York last hosted the tournament in 1995 in the WTC.

[Sean Evans]

What the experts say: predictions, views, opinions

11/10/2016 – Magnus Carlsen vs Sergey Karjakin - who will win the match in New York? Is there a clear favorite? What are strengths, what are weaknesses of Carlsen and Karjakin? We asked experts, officials and chess authors how they see the match and what they expect from Carlsen and Karjakin. A lot of experts, a lot of opionions. Statements.

I think Carlsen is the stronger player and a clear favorite in this match. But fortune often smiles on Karjakin. At any rate, after the Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections nothing can surprise me.

Yasser Seirawan, Grandmaster and a four-time United States Champion

Old lions have given way to the young. This is the first inter-generational match that doesn’t feature the names: Viswanathan Anand; Veselin Topalov or Vladimir Kramnik. In fact in terms of age this will be the youngest world championship match in history. Magnus and Sergey are truly, “children of the computer age.” They have honed their game with the use of engines and databases. For me their styles are quite comparable.

They both play a wide variety of Openings and Defenses and are therefore moving targets in that phase. Both players excel in their fine defensive skills. They spot dangers from a long way away and are very difficult to defeat. They both have good attacking skills and fine endgame techniques. Both have very admirable qualities. The problem for Sergey is in their ‘numerous similarities of strengths’ Magnus has the edge. To this I’d add that Magnus has two World Championship match experiences while Sergey will be making his debut. For these reasons I make the defending Champion the clear favorite.

However, it would be a mistake to think that Magnus will ‘easily’ defend his title. The match will be short, only twelve games long. Six Whites, six Blacks. Opening preparation will simply be a huge factor in the match. As will the form of both players. To win Sergey will have to catch Magnus in an off-beat Opening or Defense that Magnus might try. Good fortune in the team’s guesswork will be needed. With their chess skills so well matched the victor might well be decided by other factors: Nerves. Time trouble pressure. Physical condition. Confidence. Will all play important roles. Magnus will want to grind out long games where he has an advantage to test Sergey’s mettle. To ‘exhaust’ him in such contests so that he will not have the energy to return the favor the next day. I’m expecting a good well-fought match where the first to score will likely prevail.

Mikhail Golubev, Grandmaster and author

Carlsen's chances are higher: he is not necessarily more talented but somewhat more stable and more resistant than Karjakin. Unfortunately, the time control at the top level is quite boring nowadays. They are normally playing the safest openings and are extremely well prepared. I expect this match to be tough and boring, maybe with one or two interesting games. The most probable outcome is +1 for Carlsen.

Daniel King, Grandmaster and author

Although on paper Carlsen is favorite, in this kind of match I don't see the World Champion's usual strengths coming into play. Carlsen has great physical stamina that often allows him to power through in the latter half of a tournament; Karjakin has been training hard on his physical fitness and will match the Norwegian in this regard. Carlsen is deadly at killing off the weaker players in a tournament, but there is only one opponent here. Carlsen's nerves are strong; the same can be said about the stolid Karjakin. His calm performance in winning the Candidates was impressive. Although Carlsen has won two World Championship finals, this is the first time he is facing a player of his own generation, so to some extent he is also facing a new challenge.

Underpinning Karjakin's challenge for the title is the massive support from the Russian Chess Federation, both practical and financial. The Federation has close links to the Kremlin who would love to see the chess world title captured in New York and returned to its rightful place in Mother Russia. I'm sure they haven't stinted on funds. For Carlsen, this is going to be the toughest challenge of his chess career.

Karsten Müller, Grandmaster and author

I think Carlsen’s chances to win the match are roughly 60/40. That is roughly what the Elo difference between the two would lead you to expect and not such a great superiority. Magnus has only a slightly better score from their previous games, and Karjakin is a very stubborn defender. Moreover, the match is short and I don’t see Carlsen as a 70/30 favorite. Karjakin calculates very precisely, particularly when he is defending. I think both have very good nerves though Carlsen has of course more experience with playing matches on this level.

Of course, preparation is an interesting issue. Karjakin will be very well prepared, for forced lines in particular. It will be crucial whether Carlsen manages to avoid concrete lines – as he has done time and again in his career. Okay, if Carlsen has to take a hit by Karjakin in a forced line, Carlsen is in trouble. As a defender Carlsen is very tenacious but in that respect Karjakin is really outstanding. It is impressive how many bad positions he managed to hold in the Candidates.

As far as the endgame is concerned, one has to say that Karjakin has played a lot of rook endings extremely well in the course of his career. In fact, if you want to learn something about rook endings it is a good idea to take a look at these games by Karjakin. But Magnus is of course also extremely strong and has a good feeling for harmony and how to coordinate the pieces. Maybe he is particularly strong if he has enough pieces left on the board which he can coordinate. However, all in all I see a slight endgame plus for Carlsen.

Robert Rabiega, Grandmaster and teacher

Magnus Carlsen is as much favorite to win against Sergey Karjakin as he was favorite to win against Viswanathan Anand, perhaps a 60/40 favorite.

Carlsen’s key strength is to get positions which are playable but seemingly inconspicuous. He then tries to outplay his opponents from these positions which he understands better than most other players. But Carlsen also is mentally ready to play these positions to an end. Back in the day a lot of players back were content to settle for a draw in such positions. Carlsen’s way of playing chess might influence the next generation of chessplayers though the current generation might be unable to adopt this style which in fact is difficult to imitate.

As far as opening preparation is concerned, Karjakin is really strong. He is still young and has a lot of energy. Like any other world class player he has a universal chess education. If players reach a certain level they tend to play on a similar level tactically. Maybe here Carlsen is similar to Bobby Fischer who had some slight weaknesses in complicated tactical positions – on a high level, of course. Karjakin has to try to reach highly complicated positions.

But as always, psychology is the issue. There are only a few players who do believe that they can really win against Carlsen. This might be Karjakin’s handicap. This is similar to the match Fischer against Spassky: before their match in 1972 Spassky had a tremendous score against Fischer but Fischer had a huge winning streak before the match against Spassky. I believe that players such as Vladimir Kramnik or Fabio Caruana or Anish Giri would think: okay, I can win against Carlsen. But does Karjakin believe it?

Jörg Hickl, Grandmaster and director of schachreisen.eu:

My yearly view into the crystal ball of chess reveals: all in vain once again!

Making predictions for such a short match is almost impossible. In a 24-game match Carlsen would be clear a favorite and according to Elo he actually is the favorite in this match. But strengths and weaknesses are often not the decisive factors in a match – the psyche and sometimes even luck play a more important role. This can quickly end like an election in the U.S..

However, it is not easy to bet on the underdog – therefore: 60 percent winning chances for Carlsen!

Martin Breutigam, International Master and journalist

I think that Carlsen will have to give it all against Karjakin. If he is ready to do so I would bet on a narrow win for Carlsen. Karjakin will definitely be optimally prepared; his good nerves and his defensive skills are well-known. And I do not see any significant weaknesses in his play (and definitely none in Carlsen’s).

Elisabeth Pähtz, World Youth Champion Girls 2002 and World Junior Girls Champion 2005

I think, Carlsen will win the match. He simply is the better player and he also has more match experience. Perhaps Karjakin puts his hopes on his better opening preparation. But if he does not get anything out of the opening, he will be worse in the middlegame and in the endgame.

Arno Nickel

Arno Nickel, Grandmaster of correspondence chess and publisher

If you follow the bookies Carlsen is clear favorite. But in a World Championship match a number of issues play a role and these issues are hardly predictable. How well did the teams work and which resources do they have? The desire of the Russians to bring the crown finally back to their great realm has been growing bigger and bigger over the last years, and one can therefore presume that Karjakin will receive more and more focused support by experts of all kinds, including sport scientists, psychologists and physicians than Carlsen can possibly get – no matter, if he wants such help or considers it useful.

In the end psychology will decide the match. Who is the first to deeply unsettle the opponent and bring himself into top-form? This is not necessarily connected to the choice of openings, even though the opening is the first important choice of direction. But against Carlsen all phases of the game are equally important. Maybe the role of challenger allows Karjakin to surpass himself. But it is also possible that Carlsen in the end will again have seen a lot more than his opponent.

Herbert Bastian, President of the German Chess Federation

I expect to see an excellently prepared Karjakin, who will first of all try to make Carlsen nervous and to provoke him. I also think that Carlsen will have problems to get going, as he has so often had before. But when Karjakin will have used up all the surprises he has in store Carlsen will find his rhythm and overcome the nervousness of the beginning. The match will offer much to talk about, not least because of Agon’s innovative marketing concept, but also because a Russian in America wants to bring the title back to Russia.

In the past, to become World Champion you had to introduce a new wrinkle to the game to exploit a weakness of your opponent. And one was well advised to avoid dancing to the tune of your opponent. Carlsen plays his own kind of chess, he avoids the well-trodden paths and does not rely much on theoretical variations. As far as Karjakin is concerned I can think of no characteristic feature of his play which would allow him to leave his mark on top level chess. But I think Karjakin is very disciplined, and in a match against Carlsen, who at times likes to experiment, this might be an advantage. In tournaments discipline leads to solid but only rarely to exceptional results. All in all Carlsen who I consider to be the better player, will probably achieve a narrow win.

Carsten Schmidt, President of the Chess Federation Berlin, Germany

I think it will be a match in which the opponents are on a par with each other. They are both about the same age and fitness should not play such a big role if both have the right approach.

Thanks to good management Magnus Carlsen by now is a brand name which is immensely important for chess. I don’t know how a World Champion Karjakin would be received by the general press. However, now hardly a day passes in which Carlsen is not mentioned in some newspaper, magazine or blog (which are not geared to chess fans).

In any case, to play important chess matches in big cities is the way to go because in these cities you do have a lot of chess fans who will want to follow the match as spectators. This at least runs counter to the rather consumer-unfriendly commercial live-transmission. My prediction: Carlsen wins +2 after a narrow match.

Ullrich Krause, President of the Chess Federation Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

I first heard the name “Magnus Carlsen” in 2001 when Simen Agdestein, who back then was coach of Carlsen and also played for Lübeck in the Bundesliga, at dinner after a match, said about Carlsen: "I have taught chess to lots of children but with this boy it is something special." Fifteen years later one can only confirm this statement. There are not many sports which have such a relaxed and likeable World Champion. I think Carlsen is a godsend for chess! Of course Sergey Karjakin is a worthy challenger but I still want Carlsen to win the match, and I also think that he is favorite to win. However, with only twelve games everything is possible.

Yannick Pelletier, Grandmaster

No question, the Norwegian is the clear favorite. But the challenger does have some trumps, which I would sum up as follows.

At first, backed by his chess Federation and the Russian government, Karjakin has had endless means to organize his preparation, with all trainers, psychologists, and other things he could wish for. Despite Carlsen's versatility in the opening, this is a phase of the game where Karjakin may be able to take an edge. The Russian is also a tough defender. This resilience may be very helpful against Carlsen's famous technique.

The first few games of the match may be crucial, as the Norwegian often struggles to find his rhythm at the start of tournaments.

Finally, Karjakin has been considered by many (and of course also by himself) as a potential future World Champion since he is about 10. Sometimes, children's dreams come true!

Nevertheless, Carlsen is simply the better player. Unless terrible form, illness, or another unexpected factor comes into play, I do not believe that Karjakin will be able to beat him. My forecast is a 6.5-4.5 win for Carlsen.

[Sean Evans]

Place to watch the games: https://www.chess.com/tv

[Sean Evans]

YOUTUBE KING KRUSHER: Magnus Carlsen vs Sergey Karjakin World Championship (2016) : Game 1 : Trompowsky Attack


[pgn]
[Event "AGON FWCM 2016"]
[Site "New York"]
[Date "2016.11.11"]
[Round "?"]
[White "Carlsen, Magnus"]
[Black "Karjakin, Sergey"]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[WhiteElo "2857"]
[BlackElo "2769"]
[PlyCount "84"]
[EventDate "2016.??.??"]
[TimeControl "60"]

{Notes by Ruslan Ponomariov: The first game of the World Championship match in
New York is over. Personally I hope to learn something from the match and to
see how modern chess develops.} 1. d4 {0} Nf6 {0} 2. Bg5 {0 In an interview
with Norwegian TV before the match I had predicted that both players will play
1.d4. In my opinion nowadays 1.d4 gives White more options to reach
complicated positions and to create tension. But I didn't expect the
Trompovsky though Carlsen had played it before. Maybe Carlsen wants to force
the team of Karjakin to study each and every game he has ever played? At any
rate, the next games will reveal his strategy for the match.} d5 {0 Black's
most solid response.} ({If you want to complicate things you can go for} 2...
g6) ({or} 2... e6 3. e4 h6 4. Bxf6 Qxf6 {which leads to asymmetrical positions.
But in World Championship matches the players usually play solidly with Black
while trying to press with White. Therefore 2.. . d5 is an understandable
decision.}) 3. e3 {0} c5 {0} 4. Bxf6 {0} gxf6 {0} 5. dxc5 {0} ({I White wants
to keep more tension he can play} 5. Nc3 {leading to a Chigorin defense with
colors reversed. The text move gives Black more options to rsolve the tension
in the center.}) 5... Nc6 {0 There is nothing wrong with this natural
development move. It seems as if Karjakin - like everyone else - was a bit by
surprised by his opponent's opening choice and decided to calm down and to
spend some time to find out where danger might be lurking in his position.} ({
I don't think that anything is wrong with} 5... e6 {either.} 6. Nf3 (6. b4 a5)
6... Nd7 ({Here I once played} 6... Bxc5 7. c4 dxc4 8. Nbd2 Bd7 9. Bxc4 Bc6 10.
O-O Nd7 {and I think in this position Black has solved all of his problems.}
11. Qe2 Qe7 12. Rac1 O-O 13. Nb3 Bb6 14. Nfd4 Rac8 15. Qg4+ Kh8 16. Qh4 Ne5 17.
Nxc6 Rxc6 18. Be2 Rfc8 19. Qe4 Kg7 20. g3 Rxc1 21. Rxc1 Rxc1+ 22. Nxc1 Qc7 23.
Nb3 f5 24. Qb1 a5 25. Qd1 Qc6 26. Nd4 Qe4 27. Nb5 Bc5 28. Nc3 Qc6 29. Bb5 Qc7
30. Bf1 Be7 {1/2 (30) Andreikin,D-Ponomariov,R Moscow blitz 2015}) 7. c4 dxc4
8. c6 Nb6 9. Nbd2 c3 10. bxc3 bxc6 11. Qc2 Bg7 12. Bd3 f5 13. e4 {and in this
position Magnus somehow managed to complicate things and to outplay Vladimir
Kramnik: 1-0 (72) Carlsen,M (2864) -Kramnik,V (2803) Moscow RUS 2013. But I
think this was not due to the opening. Kramnik was in bad shape in this
tournament, he played badly and finished last. It is interesting that Karjakin
also took part in this tournament and with his good memory he probably
remembered the Carlsen-Kramnik game.}) 6. Bb5 {0} e6 {0} 7. c4 {0} dxc4 {0} 8.
Nd2 {0} Bxc5 {0} 9. Ngf3 {0} O-O {0} 10. O-O {0} Na5 {0} ({It's interesting to
consider} 10... c3 {to change the pawn structure. Yes, Black's kingside is
shattered as well, but Black has the two bishops which might give some chances
to play for an advantage. Instead, Karjakin decided to play simpler and more
solid. But after the game move White has less to worry about.}) 11. Rc1 {0} Be7
{0} ({Black also had the option to play} 11... a6 12. Bxc4 Nxc4 13. Rxc4 Be7 {
and now White needs to play actively, otherwise Black will just finish his
development and the two bishops will be very strong on the long diagonals.})
12. Qc2 {0} Bd7 {0} 13. Bxd7 {0} Qxd7 {0} 14. Qc3 {0} Qd5 {0 Solid again! But
sometimes solid play and giving the initiative to your opponent backfires.} ({
More principled was} 14... b6 15. Ne4 (15. Nxc4 Rac8) 15... e5 16. Rfd1 Qe6 17.
Ng3 {Obviously, White has some compensation but Black still has a healthy
extra pawn. One wonders what Carlsen would have done with Black in such a
position.}) 15. Nxc4 {0 Unfortunately White does not have much choice and can
hardly avoid mass exchanges. Therefore I think that 5.dxc5 was a really
committal move.} Nxc4 {0} 16. Qxc4 {0 A slight innacuracy of the World
Champion.} ({Possible was the intermezzo} 16. Rfd1 Qb5 17. Qxc4 Qxc4 (17...
Qxb2 18. Rb1) 18. Rxc4 {and the white rook is already on d1 instead of f1.
However, after} Rfc8 {White probably has nothing better than} 19. Rdc1 Rxc4 20.
Rxc4 {which leads to the same position we reached in the game. But sometimes
such small nuances can be important.}) 16... Qxc4 {0} 17. Rxc4 {0} Rfc8 {0} 18.
Rfc1 {0} Rxc4 {0} 19. Rxc4 {0} Rd8 {0} 20. g3 {0} ({Again I think it's more
accurate to play king to the center first.} 20. Kf1 Rd7 21. Ke2 {is of course
very similar to the game, but maybe White can eventually grab some space with
g2-g4, taking two steps at once with g-pawn.}) 20... Rd7 {0} 21. Kf1 {0} f5 {0}
22. Ke2 {0} (22. Ne5 Rd5) 22... Bf6 {0} 23. b3 {0} Kf8 {0 For the first time
it may seem as if White has some advantage because Black's pieces are so
passive. White's pieces are indeed slightly more active and Black's pawn
structure on the kingside is a bit vulnerable. You can also try to find some
analogy with the famous game Ribli-Karpov, Amsterdam 1980, which White managed
to win. But it seems that these small advantages are simply not enough to win
the game for White unless he gets a lot of help from Black.} 24. h3 {0} h6 {
0 This move is still a little mystery for me.} ({Why not} 24... Ke7 {?
Probably Karjakin wanted to nip active play from White in the bud.}) 25. Ne1 {0
} Ke7 {0} 26. Nd3 {0} Kd8 {0} 27. f4 {0} ({In case of} 27. g4 fxg4 28. hxg4 Rc7
29. Rxc7 Kxc7 30. Kf3 Kd6 31. Ke4 Bc3 {It's difficult to see how White can
make progress.}) 27... h5 {0} ({Now Black didn't like} 27... Rc7 28. Rxc7 Kxc7
{probably because of} 29. Kf3 Kd6 30. e4 fxe4+ 31. Kxe4 {and in this position
might hit on some ideas to pose Black problems.}) 28. a4 {0 White really has
difficulties to make progress. But as always Carlsen tries till the end.} (28.
Ne5 Bxe5 29. fxe5 Rd5 30. Rh4 Rxe5 31. Rxh5 Rc5 $132) 28... Rd5 {0} 29. Nc5 {0}
b6 {0} 30. Na6 {0} Be7 {0} (30... b5 $5) 31. Nb8 {0} a5 {0} 32. Nc6+ {0} Ke8 {0
} 33. Ne5 {0} (33. Nxe7 Kxe7 34. Rc7+ Rd7) 33... Bc5 {0} 34. Rc3 {0} Ke7 {0}
35. Rd3 {0} Rxd3 {0} 36. Kxd3 {0} f6 {0} 37. Nc6+ {0} Kd6 {0} 38. Nd4 {0} Kd5 {
0} 39. Nb5 {0} Kc6 {0} 40. Nd4+ {0} Kd6 {0} 41. Nb5+ {0} Kd7 {0} 42. Nd4 {0}
Kd6 {0 So, to be honest, the first game of the match was not particularly
exciting. I don't think we will see this variation again. Even for Magnus it
is difficult to squeeze water from a stone. I expect that the Queen's Indian
will be tested in the next games unless Karjakin has prepared something else.
But before that we will see what Sergey will play with White.} 1/2-1/2
[/pgn]

[AdminX]

[Vinvin]

Game 4.
from http://analysis.sesse.net/ , 42. Bd5 is winning

Score: -4.94
PV: 42. … Bd5 43. g3 g4 44. Ke3 Bb6+ 45. Kf4 Bxf2 46. Kxf5 Be3 47. Ke5 Bf3 48. a4 Bf2 49. Kf5 Bb6 50. a5 Bxa5 51. Be5 Bc6 52. Bd6 Bd5 53. Ke5 Bf3 54. Kd4 Be2 55. Ke3 Bd1 56. Kd4 Bb3 57. Kc5 Bd8 58. Kd5 Bb6 59. Ke5 Kg6

On the same site, SF showing +2 in a draw position from move 48th to move 72th because it doesn't understand it's a fortress .

[Ras]

So, the first two games looked like a warm-up without any ambitions. Game 3 and 4 were interesting and showed two things IMO:

1) Karjakin commits more inaccuracies in the middlegame than Carlsen. This allows Carlsen to pile up some advantage.
2) As soon as the endgame is reached, Carlsen commits more inaccuracies than Karjakin, and Carlsen is not able to turn advantage into win.

I think this has several implications of what we might see now.

Carlsen:
1) could stay longer in the middlegame and avoid trading down.
2) could do more than that passive-aggressive waiting-for-errors. This does not give enough advantage to win the endgame against Karjakin.

Karjakin:
1) could try to get an imbalanced positon in the middlegame, but not an inferior one.
2) If Karjakin can draw imbalanced, inferior positions, maybe he could win imbalanced, equal positions.