I would say the same thing. Houdini updated might have some good chance here.Laskos wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:59 amAbout the second table. First, you seem to put Ethereal and Chiron too high. Second, generally, that in 56 games each, the winner is not one of the big three, seems to be a very slim possibility, much smaller than 8%. Third, Stockfish to win seems in above 70% to me. It has now "contempt" and is not underperforming in these round-robins with weaker engines. Gut feeling: SF say 72%, Kom 15%, Hou (if not updated) 11%, rest 2%.chrisw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:23 am 40 rounds so far, Division 1, sim predictions for being promoted to Premier Division:
Ethereal 90%
Chiron 83%
Fizbo 19%
Laser 3%
Based on some not very well researched estimate elos, chances of winning the Premier Division would then be:Code: Select all
Column 'First' is chance of winning, Column 'First two' is chance of being in first two Engine, Tournament Elo, Initial Elo, First, First two Ethereal 3374 3334 0.562 0.909 Chiron 3351 3288 0.392 0.835 Fizbo 3301 3287 0.040 0.193 Laser 3247 3226 0.004 0.030 Fritz 3231 3226 0.001 0.014 ChessBrainVB 3247 3279 0.001 0.016 Jonny 3139 3140 0.000 0.000 Booot 3218 3272 0.000 0.002
Code: Select all
Stockfish 3441 3441 0.572 Komodo 3405 3405 0.186 Houdini 3400 3400 0.159 Ethereal 3374 3374 0.055 Chiron 3351 3351 0.019 Fire 3326 3326 0.005 Ginkgo 3322 3322 0.004 Andscacs 3245 3245 0.000
And why not going further: SF above 90% to win the TCEC 13 (if Hou is not updated).
The big 3 seems impossible to dethrone, even at this sample of game. And fire seems still above Chiron and Ethereal and might be update as well.