IN 100 games if SF reaches 51 in TCEC it should be stopped

[Chessqueen]

I do not know if it was luck that AllieStein v0.5-dev_7b41f8c-n11 got a better score than LCO but AS did NOT do as good as LCO against Stockfish 19092522, probably next time around Alliestein with an update might be as strong as Stockfish, unless there is something better than RTX 2080 waiting around the corner. Anyway In 100 games if SF reaches 51 it should be stopped, or they will continue it anyway ? www.tcec-chess.com/

[Graham Banks]

Looks like a decisive match victory for Stockfish. That won't sit well with some.

[daws]

AS could still win if SF has 3 crashes but it would be a hollow victory. If we recall, Stockfish had two crashes in the premier division but still finished in the top spot.

Looks like reports of the "end of an era" for AB have been greatly exaggerated.

[Dann Corbit]

I do not know if it was luck that AllieStein v0.5-dev_7b41f8c-n11 got a better score than LCO but AS did NOT do as good as LCO against Stockfish 19092522, probably next time around Alliestein with an update might be as strong as Stockfish, unless there is something better than RTX 2080 waiting around the corner. Anyway In 100 games if SF reaches 51 it should be stopped, or they will continue it anyway ? www.tcec-chess.com/

From TCEC 16 Rules and Information:
"Superfinal

The Superfinal consists of 100 games at TC 120+10, with 50 different openings, among them once the normal start position, so that each engine plays both black and white of the same opening position. The match will be presented with opening 1 used in games 1 and 2, then opening 2 used in games 3 and 4 etc.
If the match is theoretically won for one side before game 100, the match will still continue until all 100 games have been played."

SF has already won 51 games, and they are playing on, so the rules are being followed.
I like that, because the games produce really interesting data.

[jp]

[d]8/6pk/5rp1/2K4p/7P/4Q3/8/8 b - - 4 60

SF has this position as White. +2.75! Maybe it needs to consult Honey.
AS has 0.08.

[Zenmastur]

AS could still win if SF has 3 crashes but it would be a hollow victory. If we recall, Stockfish had two crashes in the premier division but still finished in the top spot.

Looks like reports of the "end of an era" for AB have been greatly exaggerated.

In case you were in doubt, simply look at the number of outright blunders made by AS. A good example is move 33. ... Qc6???

[pgn] [Event "TCEC Season 16 - Superfinal"] [Site "https://tcec-chess.com"] [Date "2019.09.28"] [Round "14.1"] [White "Stockfish 19092522"] [Black "AllieStein v0.5-dev_7b41f8c-n11"] [Result "1-0"] [WhiteElo "3892"] [BlackElo "3823"] [ECO "C19"] [GameDuration "02:03:23"] [GameEndTime "2019-09-28T22:47:03.665 W. Europe Standard Time"] [GameStartTime "2019-09-28T20:43:40.261 W. Europe Standard Time"] [Opening "French"] [PlyCount "77"] [Termination "adjudication"] [TerminationDetails "TCEC win rule"] [TimeControl "7200+10"] [Variation "Winawer, advance, poisoned pawn, Konstantinopolsky variation"] 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.e5 c5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 Ne7 7.Qg4 Qc7 8.Qxg7 Rg8 9.Qxh7 cxd4 10.Ne2 dxc3 11.f4 Bd7 12.Qd3 Na6 13.Nd4 Qa5 14.Nb3 Qa4 15.g3 Rc8 16.Be3 b6 17.Nd4 Nc5 18.Qh7 Rg6 19.Bh3 Ne4 20.O-O Nf5 21.Bxf5 exf5 22.Rad1 Nd2 23.Rf2 Rc4 24.e6 Bxe6 25.Qh5 Ne4 26.Nxe6 Rxe6 27.Rxd5 Nd6 28.Rd3 Ke7 29.g4 Rce4 30.gxf5 Rf6 31.Re2 Nxf5 32.Qh8 Rg6+ 33.Kf1 Qc6 34.Bc5+ Nd6 35.Bxd6+ Rxd6 36.Rxd6 Kxd6 37.Qh6+ Re6 38.Qf8+ Kd5 39.Qxf7 1-0 [/pgn]

Then it compounds the mistake by playing 34. ... Nd6???

Until they figure out how to stop NN engines from making moves like this, there is little hope of a new era, just a few interesting games.

Regards,

Zenmastur

[Ovyron]

In case you were in doubt, simply look at the number of outright blunders made by AS. A good example is move 33. ... Qc6???

<snip>

Then it compounds the mistake by playing 34. ... Nd6???

I guess the questions are:

1.Does Leela play those moves? If not it's clear Leela should have gone to the final instead of Allie, which would indicate Allie is just better at beating weaker opposition.

2.Has this just been because of improvements by Stockfish? If so, NNs rapidly improved and eventually caught up and surpassed Stockfish's strength, but they plateaued* while Stockfish kept improving, so this would be THE REVIVAL OF AN ERA.

(*I reckon this is the first time in my life I use a word with 4 vowels in a row)

[DustyMonkey]

monte carlo tree search produces blunders by design

while the root move may be "well sampled" and avoid hanging pieces,
the 2nd ply is less well sampled,
the 3rd ply even less well sampled,
the 4th ply poorly sampled,
the 5th ply even more poorly sampled,
...

This is the core fact of monte carlo tree search. I know some folks will jump in trying to deny it, or excuse it, or hand wave the problem "away" ...

The best argument trying to defend monte carlo on the matter is that the blunders aren't shallow, but it ignores the obvious. The game is more than one move. Giving up a little bit on each move, with high probability, compounds, again and again, on every move through a game. You can say "on move 20 the odds of MCTS blundering is low!" ... but you cannot say "over all moves of a game, the odds of MCTS blundering is low!" .. its not factual. At all.

[Zenmastur]

In case you were in doubt, simply look at the number of outright blunders made by AS. A good example is move 33. ... Qc6???

<snip>

Then it compounds the mistake by playing 34. ... Nd6???

I guess the questions are:

1.Does Leela play those moves? If not it's clear Leela should have gone to the final instead of Allie, which would indicate Allie is just better at beating weaker opposition.

2.Has this just been because of improvements by Stockfish? If so, NNs rapidly improved and eventually caught up and surpassed Stockfish's strength, but they plateaued* while Stockfish kept improving, so this would be THE REVIVAL OF AN ERA.

(*I reckon this is the first time in my life I use a word with 4 vowels in a row)

The fact that ANY top NN angine could produce two MEGA-BLUNDERS in a row is sufficient evidence that we are not now, nor were we in the recent past in a "new era". Their technology isn't mature enough yet!

1.) I don't think what Leela would have done has any bearing on the subject. It came in third or fourth if I recall.

2.) SF hasn't made any great gains (just "normal" albeit slow progress) in playing strength in the recent past or so this site would have me believe.
https://nextchessmove.com/dev-builds

Regards,

Zenmastur

[Ovyron]

Are you saying that Leela winning Season 15 was a fluke?