[d]2rr2k1/5ppp/pp2b3/6P1/2nNPB2/P1P2P2/6BP/2R3K1 b - -
I was expecting a much lower probability of White drawing this. According to Stockfish-dev, this game is over. Evaluation is -3.21 for 31. Bf4 (and Stockfish thinks that's the better of the two options you just had). Good luck, in any case.
zullil wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:15 pm
According to Stockfish-dev, this game is over. Evaluation is -3.21 for 31. Bf4 (and Stockfish thinks that's the better of the two options you just had).
But this isn't new info, this was posted 4 days before the game started:
Zenmastur wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:51 am
With proper hardware (proper meaning very powerful) and sufficient time I believe it's possible to “prove beyond a reasonable doubt” that moves like 1.g4 are in fact losses. I'm not saying they can be calculated all the way to mate, but that they can be calculated to +7/-7 or better/worse. I tried this with 1.g4 right after I started playing CC and couldn't quite get there. IIRC the best I could get after about a week of analysis was -3.xx or so. This was on 5M-6M nps machine with 16 GB of TT and 6-man EGTBes. I plan on trying this again when I build my new system and, before I increase my ICCF game load significantly. I think this is just a matter of how powerful a machine you use. If I had a dual EPYC 7742 machine with 2 or more TB or RAM, 7-man EGTBs and a week of spare time (2 at the most) I think 1.g4 would be history!
(emphasis mine)
According to this, no matter what white played, it can't stop some -3.xx eval. So you can't say the game was over before it started, unless you claim you couldn't defend 1.g4 yourself.
I don't really trust SF with opening evals.
Even with something like the Bongcloud Stockfish doesn't really boom until maybe way beyond depth 50. And we all know Bongcloud is pretty much a 100% loss against any strong engine no matter who's defending.
It will just hover between +2 and +2.3 for a very long time.
Leela on the other hand can see much more accurately just how bad the Bongcloud truly is.
Raphexon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:07 pm
And we all know Bongcloud is pretty much a 100% loss against any strong engine no matter who's defending.
It will just hover between +2 and +2.3 for a very long time.
Is that so?
Well, if I draw Harvey then the Bongcloud would be next on my list to try to defend
Raphexon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:07 pm
And we all know Bongcloud is pretty much a 100% loss against any strong engine no matter who's defending.
It will just hover between +2 and +2.3 for a very long time.
Is that so?
Well, if I draw Harvey then the Bongcloud would be next on my list to try to defend
I obviously can't formally prove the game theoretic value.
But regardless I am 99.8% sure it's a loss.
)
