I'm not sure why you would bother engaging in this argument with theses trolls. There have been many, many discussions on this board about LOS, LLR, SPRT, ELO error bars, biased and unbiased estimators etc. and there are innumerable articles on the web on each of these subjects. Trying to argue a point with someone that doesn't really care what the truth of the matter is and is too lazy to do any research on the subject is a waste of time and effort. End the discussion! Who cares what they believe. Let them believe whatever they like and get on with your life.mwyoung wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:45 am Remember Elo is statistics, and SPRT is statistics, LOS is statistics. "And statistics is a game of probability, and it cannot be known for certain whether statistical conclusions are correct. Whenever there is uncertainty, there is the possibility of making an error. Considering this nature of statistics science, all statistical hypothesis tests have a probability of making type I and type II errors."
But the probability is low. And a tool to be used.
Again I level with with the LOS table.
Code: Select all
10 50 100 200 500 1000 0 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 1 64.51% 56.77% 54.81% 53.41% 52.16% 51.53% 2 77.22% 63.34% 59.55% 56.80% 54.32% 53.06% 3 86.95% 69.55% 64.16% 60.14% 56.46% 54.58% 4 93.43% 75.24% 68.57% 63.40% 58.58% 56.09% 5 97.14% 80.32% 72.73% 66.57% 60.68% 57.60% 6 98.95% 84.71% 76.60% 69.63% 62.75% 59.10% 7 99.68% 88.40% 80.14% 72.55% 64.78% 60.58% 8 99.93% 91.41% 83.34% 75.33% 66.77% 62.05% 9 99.99% 93.80% 86.19% 77.96% 68.72% 63.50% 10 100.00% 95.64% 88.69% 80.41% 70.61% 64.93% 11 97.02% 90.85% 82.69% 72.45% 66.34% 12 98.01% 92.68% 84.80% 74.23% 67.73% 13 98.71% 94.23% 86.72% 75.95% 69.09% 14 99.19% 95.50% 88.48% 77.60% 70.43% 15 99.50% 96.54% 90.06% 79.19% 71.74% 16 99.71% 97.37% 91.48% 80.71% 73.02% 17 99.83% 98.03% 92.74% 82.16% 74.27% 18 99.91% 98.55% 93.85% 83.54% 75.49% 19 99.95% 98.94% 94.82% 84.85% 76.68% 20 99.97% 99.24% 95.67% 86.08% 77.84% 21 99.99% 99.46% 96.41% 87.25% 78.96% 22 99.99% 99.62% 97.03% 88.35% 80.05% 23 100.00% 99.74% 97.57% 89.38% 81.11% 24 99.82% 98.02% 90.34% 82.12% 25 99.88% 98.40% 91.23% 83.11% 26 99.92% 98.71% 92.07% 84.06% 27 99.95% 98.97% 92.84% 84.97% 28 99.97% 99.18% 93.55% 85.85% 29 99.98% 99.36% 94.21% 86.69% 30 99.99% 99.50% 94.81% 87.50% 31 99.99% 99.61% 95.36% 88.27% 32 100.00% 99.70% 95.86% 89.01% 33 99.77% 96.32% 89.71% 34 99.82% 96.74% 90.38% 35 99.87% 97.11% 91.02% 36 99.90% 97.45% 91.62% 37 99.93% 97.76% 92.20% 38 99.95% 98.03% 92.74% 39 99.96% 98.28% 93.26% 40 99.97% 98.50% 93.74% 41 99.98% 98.69% 94.20% 42 99.98% 98.86% 94.63% 43 99.99% 99.02% 95.04% 44 99.99% 99.15% 95.42% 45 99.99% 99.27% 95.78% 46 100.00% 99.37% 96.11% 47 99.46% 96.42% 48 99.54% 96.72% 49 99.61% 96.99% 50 99.67% 97.24% 51 99.72% 97.47% 52 99.76% 97.69% 53 99.80% 97.89% 54 99.83% 98.08% 55 99.86% 98.25% 56 99.88% 98.41% 57 99.90% 98.56% 58 99.92% 98.69% 59 99.93% 98.82% 60 99.94% 98.93% 61 99.95% 99.03% 62 99.96% 99.13% 63 99.97% 99.22% 64 99.97% 99.29% 65 99.98% 99.37% 66 99.98% 99.43% 67 99.99% 99.49% 68 99.99% 99.54% 69 99.99% 99.59% 70 99.99% 99.64% 71 99.99% 99.68% 72 100.00% 99.71% 73 99.74% 74 99.77% 75 99.80% 76 99.82% 77 99.84% 78 99.86% 79 99.88% 80 99.89% 81 99.91% 82 99.92% 83 99.93% 84 99.94% 85 99.94% 86 99.95% 87 99.96% 88 99.96% 89 99.97% 90 99.97% 91 99.98% 92 99.98% 93 99.98% 94 99.98% 95 99.99% 96 99.99% 97 99.99% 98 99.99% 99 99.99% 100 99.99% 101 99.99% 102 100.00%
Just my two cents worth.
Regards,
Zenmastur