Formula for number of moves in X minutes based on TC

[Nordlandia]

Normal distribution graph based on 20 games in 5+5 format.



Data

Code: Select all

00:14:02
00:18:24
00:18:02
00:15:46
00:10:04
00:16:22
00:08:18
00:20:38
00:20:49
00:14:54
00:18:30
00:23:08
00:14:16
00:14:25
00:19:58
00:16:10
00:15:11
00:17:29
00:13:50
00:14:12

Code: Select all

43.5
56
52.5
45
28
48.5
22
69
70.5
46.5
57.5
82
40
44.5
65.5
48.5
46
55
40.5
42.5

[Nordlandia]

Houdini used contempt -4 and surprisingly tied Stockfish dev.

Code: Select all

5+5 Q9650 | 3-Core | Probing 5-men  2018

                                  12345678901234567890
1   stockfish_18040400_x64   ½½½½½½½½0½½½½½1½½½½½  10.0/20  100.00
2   Houdini 6               ½½½½½½½½1½½½½½0½½½½½   10.0/20  100.00

[Dann Corbit]

Houdini used contempt -4 and surprisingly tied Stockfish dev.

Code: Select all

5+5 Q9650 | 3-Core | Probing 5-men  2018

                                  12345678901234567890
1   stockfish_18040400_x64   ½½½½½½½½0½½½½½1½½½½½  10.0/20  100.00
2   Houdini 6               ½½½½½½½½1½½½½½0½½½½½   10.0/20  100.00

I do not think that you can tell a lot from 100 games.
I think you can tell very little indeed from 20 games.
Almost every outcome is unsurprising in a sample that small.