Prediction Stockfish 14 Vs Jorge Sammour Knight Odds

[Chessqueen]

He did NOT changed any settings with the threads, he left it with original settings, according to him.

The default setting of threads depends on the GUI used. It was probably 12, but perhaps Jorge can confirm this. If so, he did very well, as Skill 21 with 12 threads is at least Skill 22 on one thread, probably more. So he can bump either to Skill 22 with his current thread setting or go to Skill 23 with Threads set to 1 (the normal value for the Skill settings). Perhaps I have overrated the Skill levels for humans at 15' + 10", maybe 110 x Skill rather than 115 would be more accurate for estimated FIDE rating. We need more human data. If Jorge can give us enough results to determine what Skill level (with Threads at 1 or at some known value) is a fair match for him at 15' + 10", we'll be glad to give him the next upgrade (which might be a nice one!) free on request.

He played three games yesterday at TC 15'+10" with Skill Level 22; Won 1, and Lost 2 games. He did not changed the default thread and was happy to find a skill level in Komodo that can challenge him.

Can you ask him to look at what that default setting for Threads is? It depends on the GUI. Could be 12, could be just 1, or some other number; it makes a significant difference. Do you know what GUI he uses?

I just called him and he answered that he is using Arena 3.5.1 and set up the Skill to 22, that is all that he did.
[/quote]

With Arena 3.5.1, if you just download it and install Dragon 2 with no changes (other than skill level setting), it will just use one thread. To confirm this, click on "engines", then "manage", and note the box "common max cpus" which should be checked and set to 1 if it hasn't been modified. This is fine for the Skill level options (this is how they were calibrated), but for knight odds games he might want to use all 12 threads rather than just 1, in which case set that value to 12. So far you report that Jorge, who is 2458 FIDE, has an even score against levels 21 and 22 combined. My formula of 115 x level gives 2415 for Skill 21 and 2530 for Skill 22, so it appears to be pretty accurate based on these five games, maybe 114 x level would fit the data almost perfectly. For reference, Skill 22 generally loses to full strength Dragon with knight odds, while 23 tends to come out ahead.
[/quote]

He just checked and the common max cpus was set to 1 using skill Level 22; so he asked me what elo different would it be if he set it to 12 at skill level 21 instead ?

[lkaufman]

He did NOT changed any settings with the threads, he left it with original settings, according to him.

The default setting of threads depends on the GUI used. It was probably 12, but perhaps Jorge can confirm this. If so, he did very well, as Skill 21 with 12 threads is at least Skill 22 on one thread, probably more. So he can bump either to Skill 22 with his current thread setting or go to Skill 23 with Threads set to 1 (the normal value for the Skill settings). Perhaps I have overrated the Skill levels for humans at 15' + 10", maybe 110 x Skill rather than 115 would be more accurate for estimated FIDE rating. We need more human data. If Jorge can give us enough results to determine what Skill level (with Threads at 1 or at some known value) is a fair match for him at 15' + 10", we'll be glad to give him the next upgrade (which might be a nice one!) free on request.

He played three games yesterday at TC 15'+10" with Skill Level 22; Won 1, and Lost 2 games. He did not changed the default thread and was happy to find a skill level in Komodo that can challenge him.

Can you ask him to look at what that default setting for Threads is? It depends on the GUI. Could be 12, could be just 1, or some other number; it makes a significant difference. Do you know what GUI he uses?

I just called him and he answered that he is using Arena 3.5.1 and set up the Skill to 22, that is all that he did.

With Arena 3.5.1, if you just download it and install Dragon 2 with no changes (other than skill level setting), it will just use one thread. To confirm this, click on "engines", then "manage", and note the box "common max cpus" which should be checked and set to 1 if it hasn't been modified. This is fine for the Skill level options (this is how they were calibrated), but for knight odds games he might want to use all 12 threads rather than just 1, in which case set that value to 12. So far you report that Jorge, who is 2458 FIDE, has an even score against levels 21 and 22 combined. My formula of 115 x level gives 2415 for Skill 21 and 2530 for Skill 22, so it appears to be pretty accurate based on these five games, maybe 114 x level would fit the data almost perfectly. For reference, Skill 22 generally loses to full strength Dragon with knight odds, while 23 tends to come out ahead.
[/quote]

He just checked and the common max cpus was set to 1. So he asked me what elo different would it be if he set it to 12 ?
[/quote]

I think setting it to 12 would be more than a one level increase, maybe 150 elo. So skill 21 x114 = 2394 +150 = 2544. So Skill 21 should be tough for him with 12 threads set, tougher than skill 22 with 1 one thread set. But I don't have an accurate figure for this, 150 elo is just my best guess. Regarding knight odds games, using max cpus 12 should make a real difference with MCTS on, but not much difference without MCTS on. Without MCTS, once you get beyond 20 plies or so giving knight odds to humans (or weak/weakened engines), extra depth doesn't seem to help.

[lkaufman]

He did NOT changed any settings with the threads, he left it with original settings, according to him.

The default setting of threads depends on the GUI used. It was probably 12, but perhaps Jorge can confirm this. If so, he did very well, as Skill 21 with 12 threads is at least Skill 22 on one thread, probably more. So he can bump either to Skill 22 with his current thread setting or go to Skill 23 with Threads set to 1 (the normal value for the Skill settings). Perhaps I have overrated the Skill levels for humans at 15' + 10", maybe 110 x Skill rather than 115 would be more accurate for estimated FIDE rating. We need more human data. If Jorge can give us enough results to determine what Skill level (with Threads at 1 or at some known value) is a fair match for him at 15' + 10", we'll be glad to give him the next upgrade (which might be a nice one!) free on request.

He played three games yesterday at TC 15'+10" with Skill Level 22; Won 1, and Lost 2 games. He did not changed the default thread and was happy to find a skill level in Komodo that can challenge him.

Can you ask him to look at what that default setting for Threads is? It depends on the GUI. Could be 12, could be just 1, or some other number; it makes a significant difference. Do you know what GUI he uses?

I just called him and he answered that he is using Arena 3.5.1 and set up the Skill to 22, that is all that he did.

With Arena 3.5.1, if you just download it and install Dragon 2 with no changes (other than skill level setting), it will just use one thread. To confirm this, click on "engines", then "manage", and note the box "common max cpus" which should be checked and set to 1 if it hasn't been modified. This is fine for the Skill level options (this is how they were calibrated), but for knight odds games he might want to use all 12 threads rather than just 1, in which case set that value to 12. So far you report that Jorge, who is 2458 FIDE, has an even score against levels 21 and 22 combined. My formula of 115 x level gives 2415 for Skill 21 and 2530 for Skill 22, so it appears to be pretty accurate based on these five games, maybe 114 x level would fit the data almost perfectly. For reference, Skill 22 generally loses to full strength Dragon with knight odds, while 23 tends to come out ahead.

He just checked and the common max cpus was set to 1. So he asked me what elo different would it be if he set it to 12 ?
[/quote]

I think setting it to 12 would be more than a one level increase, maybe 150 elo. So skill 21 x114 = 2394 +150 = 2544. So Skill 21 should be tough for him with 12 threads set, tougher than skill 22 with 1 one thread set. But I don't have an accurate figure for this, 150 elo is just my best guess. Regarding knight odds games, using max cpus 12 should make a real difference with MCTS on, but not much difference without MCTS on. Without MCTS, once you get beyond 20 plies or so giving knight odds to humans (or weak/weakened engines), extra depth doesn't seem to help.
[/quote]

I ran a quick test that indicates that max cpus = 12 raises the skill level by more than I thought, maybe close to 200 elo rather than 150. So even Skill 20 with max cpus 12 should be a good match for Jorge; 114x20 = 2280 + 200 = 2480 FIDE.

[Chessqueen]

He did NOT changed any settings with the threads, he left it with original settings, according to him.

The default setting of threads depends on the GUI used. It was probably 12, but perhaps Jorge can confirm this. If so, he did very well, as Skill 21 with 12 threads is at least Skill 22 on one thread, probably more. So he can bump either to Skill 22 with his current thread setting or go to Skill 23 with Threads set to 1 (the normal value for the Skill settings). Perhaps I have overrated the Skill levels for humans at 15' + 10", maybe 110 x Skill rather than 115 would be more accurate for estimated FIDE rating. We need more human data. If Jorge can give us enough results to determine what Skill level (with Threads at 1 or at some known value) is a fair match for him at 15' + 10", we'll be glad to give him the next upgrade (which might be a nice one!) free on request.

He played three games yesterday at TC 15'+10" with Skill Level 22; Won 1, and Lost 2 games. He did not changed the default thread and was happy to find a skill level in Komodo that can challenge him.

Can you ask him to look at what that default setting for Threads is? It depends on the GUI. Could be 12, could be just 1, or some other number; it makes a significant difference. Do you know what GUI he uses?

I just called him and he answered that he is using Arena 3.5.1 and set up the Skill to 22, that is all that he did.

With Arena 3.5.1, if you just download it and install Dragon 2 with no changes (other than skill level setting), it will just use one thread. To confirm this, click on "engines", then "manage", and note the box "common max cpus" which should be checked and set to 1 if it hasn't been modified. This is fine for the Skill level options (this is how they were calibrated), but for knight odds games he might want to use all 12 threads rather than just 1, in which case set that value to 12. So far you report that Jorge, who is 2458 FIDE, has an even score against levels 21 and 22 combined. My formula of 115 x level gives 2415 for Skill 21 and 2530 for Skill 22, so it appears to be pretty accurate based on these five games, maybe 114 x level would fit the data almost perfectly. For reference, Skill 22 generally loses to full strength Dragon with knight odds, while 23 tends to come out ahead.

He just checked and the common max cpus was set to 1. So he asked me what elo different would it be if he set it to 12 ?

I think setting it to 12 would be more than a one level increase, maybe 150 elo. So skill 21 x114 = 2394 +150 = 2544. So Skill 21 should be tough for him with 12 threads set, tougher than skill 22 with 1 one thread set. But I don't have an accurate figure for this, 150 elo is just my best guess. Regarding knight odds games, using max cpus 12 should make a real difference with MCTS on, but not much difference without MCTS on. Without MCTS, once you get beyond 20 plies or so giving knight odds to humans (or weak/weakened engines), extra depth doesn't seem to help.
[/quote]

I ran a quick test that indicates that max cpus = 12 raises the skill level by more than I thought, maybe close to 200 elo rather than 150. So even Skill 20 with max cpus 12 should be a good match for Jorge; 114x20 = 2280 + 200 = 2480 FIDE.
[/quote]

Can I ask you how did you tested max cpus =12 at skill level 21 to be stronger than max cpus =1 at skill level 22. did you actually let Komodo play versus Komodo using two different computers with those settings

[lkaufman]

He did NOT changed any settings with the threads, he left it with original settings, according to him.

The default setting of threads depends on the GUI used. It was probably 12, but perhaps Jorge can confirm this. If so, he did very well, as Skill 21 with 12 threads is at least Skill 22 on one thread, probably more. So he can bump either to Skill 22 with his current thread setting or go to Skill 23 with Threads set to 1 (the normal value for the Skill settings). Perhaps I have overrated the Skill levels for humans at 15' + 10", maybe 110 x Skill rather than 115 would be more accurate for estimated FIDE rating. We need more human data. If Jorge can give us enough results to determine what Skill level (with Threads at 1 or at some known value) is a fair match for him at 15' + 10", we'll be glad to give him the next upgrade (which might be a nice one!) free on request.

He played three games yesterday at TC 15'+10" with Skill Level 22; Won 1, and Lost 2 games. He did not changed the default thread and was happy to find a skill level in Komodo that can challenge him.

Can you ask him to look at what that default setting for Threads is? It depends on the GUI. Could be 12, could be just 1, or some other number; it makes a significant difference. Do you know what GUI he uses?
[/quote]

I just called him and he answered that he is using Arena 3.5.1 and set up the Skill to 22, that is all that he did.
[/quote]

He did NOT changed any settings with the threads, he left it with original settings, according to him.

The default setting of threads depends on the GUI used. It was probably 12, but perhaps Jorge can confirm this. If so, he did very well, as Skill 21 with 12 threads is at least Skill 22 on one thread, probably more. So he can bump either to Skill 22 with his current thread setting or go to Skill 23 with Threads set to 1 (the normal value for the Skill settings). Perhaps I have overrated the Skill levels for humans at 15' + 10", maybe 110 x Skill rather than 115 would be more accurate for estimated FIDE rating. We need more human data. If Jorge can give us enough results to determine what Skill level (with Threads at 1 or at some known value) is a fair match for him at 15' + 10", we'll be glad to give him the next upgrade (which might be a nice one!) free on request.

He played three games yesterday at TC 15'+10" with Skill Level 22; Won 1, and Lost 2 games. He did not changed the default thread and was happy to find a skill level in Komodo that can challenge him.

Can you ask him to look at what that default setting for Threads is? It depends on the GUI. Could be 12, could be just 1, or some other number; it makes a significant difference. Do you know what GUI he uses?

I just called him and he answered that he is using Arena 3.5.1 and set up the Skill to 22, that is all that he did.

With Arena 3.5.1, if you just download it and install Dragon 2 with no changes (other than skill level setting), it will just use one thread. To confirm this, click on "engines", then "manage", and note the box "common max cpus" which should be checked and set to 1 if it hasn't been modified. This is fine for the Skill level options (this is how they were calibrated), but for knight odds games he might want to use all 12 threads rather than just 1, in which case set that value to 12. So far you report that Jorge, who is 2458 FIDE, has an even score against levels 21 and 22 combined. My formula of 115 x level gives 2415 for Skill 21 and 2530 for Skill 22, so it appears to be pretty accurate based on these five games, maybe 114 x level would fit the data almost perfectly. For reference, Skill 22 generally loses to full strength Dragon with knight odds, while 23 tends to come out ahead.

He just checked and the common max cpus was set to 1. So he asked me what elo different would it be if he set it to 12 ?

I think setting it to 12 would be more than a one level increase, maybe 150 elo. So skill 21 x114 = 2394 +150 = 2544. So Skill 21 should be tough for him with 12 threads set, tougher than skill 22 with 1 one thread set. But I don't have an accurate figure for this, 150 elo is just my best guess. Regarding knight odds games, using max cpus 12 should make a real difference with MCTS on, but not much difference without MCTS on. Without MCTS, once you get beyond 20 plies or so giving knight odds to humans (or weak/weakened engines), extra depth doesn't seem to help.

I ran a quick test that indicates that max cpus = 12 raises the skill level by more than I thought, maybe close to 200 elo rather than 150. So even Skill 20 with max cpus 12 should be a good match for Jorge; 114x20 = 2280 + 200 = 2480 FIDE.
[/quote]

Can I ask you how did you tested max cpus =12 at skill level 21 to be stronger than max cpus =1 at skill level 22. did you actually let Komodo play versus Komodo using two different computers with those settings
[/quote]

No need for two computers, I ran it on one computer with twenty threads. The skill levels don't depend on time, so it makes no difference whether one version ran faster or slower than the other, it won't change the results. Skill 21 with cpus 12 crushed skill 22 with cpus 1, while skill 20 with cpus 12 lost to skill 22 with threads 1 by a much smaller margin, so I can say that using cpus = 12 is roughly 1.75 skill levels, and 1.75 x 114 elo is about 200 elo.

[Werewolf]

If you can choose the first move, I think 1.e4 is best when giving g1 odds, 1.f4 is probably best when giving b1 odds.

Really?! Why?

[lkaufman]

If you can choose the first move, I think 1.e4 is best when giving g1 odds, 1.f4 is probably best when giving b1 odds.

Really?! Why?

Well, mostly it's my observation from actual experience. Objectively everything is hopeless a piece down. But against humans, with b1 missing, 1.f4 at least usually avoids symmetry and gives some kingside attacking chances, and the knight on b1 is usually a problem piece in this opening. 1.e4? d5! is bad for White without a knight to go to c3; Queen's gambit is dubious due to early ...Bb4+ with no knight to interpose. White can play London system or Colle but Black can play symmetrically. But with g1 odds, nothing wrong with 1.e4.